Wheat

Early Monday in Chicago, Mar’26 CBOT SRW wheat was indicated around $5.25 1/2/bu, as the complex stayed under pressure after Friday’s losses and a weaker weekly tone in SRW and HRW. The market is also watching for a backlogged U.S. Export Sales release (week ending Nov. 20), with expectations at 300,000–750,000 MT.

Corn

Mar’26 CBOT corn was quoted near $4.40 1/4/bu on Monday morning, fractionally softer after Friday’s pullback and a weekly loss in the March contract. Attention is on the backlogged Export Sales print (expected 1.1–2.2 MMT for the week ending Nov. 20) and on positioning after data showed managed money flipping to a net long (as of Nov. 18).

Soybeans

Jan’26 CBOT soybeans started Monday around $10.78 1/2/bu, modestly firmer after steep Friday losses and a larger weekly drop in January. Traders are watching the next Export Sales catch-up (expected 0.8–3.0 MMT for soybeans, plus meal and oil) and Brazil planting progress, with AgRural putting the soybean crop at 97% planted.

Policy uncertainty is a key macro driver this week, as the Trump administration is not expected to finalize 2026 biofuel-blending quotas before year-end, extending uncertainty for the oil-agriculture complex. That delay complicates contracting, hedging, and investment decisions tied to biofuel-linked demand for corn, soy oil, and competing veg oils.

In soy fundamentals, the market is also bracing for fresh processing signals: NOPA’s November crush is estimated at 220.285 million bushels, with soy oil stocks projected at 1.408 billion pounds (a seven-month high). That combination matters because crush and oil inventories are tightly connected to renewable fuels demand and margins.

Weather remains the dominant “headline risk,” especially in South America. Forecasts call for very heavy rain in Mato Grosso and Goiás (150–200mm/10 days), lifting flooding concerns, while the broader outlook flags Argentina trending hotter and drier into year-end, a negative setup for corn and soy yield potential if it persists.

Outside South America, wheat weather is mixed but still market-relevant: the Black Sea remains too dry heading into dormancy with another warm/dry week flagged as unfavorable, while parts of the U.S. Plains are seeing soil moisture slip for winter wheat under a warmer/drier pattern.

On global soy trade flows, projections keep tilting toward Brazil: Brazil 2025/26 soybean shipments are pegged at a record 110 million tons (supported by a 178.3 million ton production outlook), while U.S. exports are forecast at 43 million tons, down year-on-year amid tougher South American competition and trade uncertainty. China remains the anchor buyer for Brazilian soy.

Brazil’s spot market signals are also supportive in the near term: Cepea notes good export demand to complete port loads and tighter ending-stock projections from Conab helping premiums and domestic values. At the same time, Brazil’s corn market saw softer prices on low domestic demand and expectations of ample 2025/26 supply, while rains improved conditions for summer crops and second-crop planting.

Finally, market structure and cross-commodity signals are shifting. Euronext will extend trading hours for milling wheat, rapeseed, and maize futures from 2 February, adding an evening session aimed at improving access and flexibility (including for U.S.-based participants). Separately, livestock-side disruptions (plant closures, animal health events) are keeping feed-demand sensitivity on traders’ radars even when grain-specific news is dominant.