Wheat

Wheat started the week under pressure, with SRW and HRW both finishing lower. Even with solid weekly export inspections of 488,025 MT (up vs. both the prior week and last year), the backlogged export sales print for the week ending Nov. 20 came in at 361,715 MT, toward the lower end of expectations, while funds remained structurally bearish (net-short additions in both CBT and KC). Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.20 3/4/bu, down 8 1/2 cents.

Corn

Corn traded soft through much of Monday, with nearby contracts off 1–2 cents as the market digested fresh export flow and positioning shifts. USDA logged a private export sale of 150,320 MT (unknown destination), and export inspections showed 1.589 MMT shipped for the week ending Dec. 11 (still sharply above last year); the backlogged export sales update printed 1.84 MMT for the week ending Nov. 20. Positioning stayed a swing factor: the updated CFTC data showed managed money flipping back to a net short (-10,872) (as of Nov. 25). Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.39 3/4/bu, down 1 cent.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended modestly lower, but the internal tone stayed “supportive-to-choppy” as China demand headlines ran into veg-oil policy uncertainty. USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT to China; export inspections were 795,661 MT (down w/w and sharply lower y/y), while the backlogged export sales update showed 2.232 MMT sold for the week ending Nov. 20, including 2.14 MMT to China. Processing data added another layer: NOPA November crush was 216.04 mbu (a record for the month), while soy oil stocks rose to 1.513 bln lbs. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.71 3/4/bu, down 5 cents.

Key Global Drivers and Headlines Shaping the Session

U.S. policy uncertainty stayed a macro overhang: the administration is not expected to finalize 2026 biofuel-blending quotas before year-end, pushing key Renewable Fuel Standard signals into next year and complicating contracting, hedging, and investment decisions tied to ethanol and renewable diesel demand for corn and veg oils.

Oilseed processing and inventories kept the market sensitive to renewable-fuels margins. Ahead of the release, trade expectations centered on a slower (but still historically large) NOPA crush and seven-month-high projected soy oil stocks; the realized print underscored that crush remains strong even as oil stocks build—an important mix when policy timing is unclear.

Weather remained the dominant “headline risk,” especially in South America: forecasts called for 150–200 mm of rain over 10 days in Mato Grosso and Goiás, lifting flood concerns, while Argentina is flagged to trend hotter and drier into year-end, a potentially negative setup for corn/soy yield potential if it persists.

In the Northern Hemisphere, wheat weather signals stayed mixed-but-relevant. The Central/Southern Plains pattern leans warmer/drier, with winter wheat soil moisture falling (slowly, but with cumulative risk), while the Black Sea remains dry heading into/through dormancy and another warm/dry week is described as unfavorable for winter wheat.

Trade flows also carried a strategic signal: China is buying its first cargo of Argentine wheat in decades, with Cofco loading in Argentina and Milei’s tariff cut (including wheat down to 7.5%, enacted Dec. 12) making Argentine supplies more competitive—another datapoint in China’s broader effort to diversify origins amid ongoing US-related trade tensions.

On soy, medium-term projections continue tilting toward Brazil. Estimates peg Brazil 2025/26 soybean shipments at a record 110 million tons (supported by a 178.3 million ton production outlook), while U.S. exports are forecast at 43 million tons, reflecting tougher South American competition; China remains the anchor buyer for Brazilian soy.

Brazil’s near-term cash signals were constructive for soy even as corn looked softer domestically. Cepea pointed to strong export demand to complete port loads and tighter Conab ending-stock estimates supporting premiums and values; meanwhile, Brazil corn prices weakened on low domestic demand and expectations of ample 2025/26 supply, with rainfall improving conditions for summer crops and second-crop planting.

Finally, market structure and cross-commodity issues stayed in the background but matter for volatility and feed demand. Euronext will extend trading hours for milling wheat, rapeseed, and maize futures starting 2 February (adding a 6:30–8:30 p.m. CET session), while livestock and animal-health headlines (U.S. beef plant closures; HPAI detection; cattle disease responses in France) kept traders alert to potential knock-on effects for feed demand and trade restrictions.