Core Market Drivers

Wheat futures were the weakest performer on Tuesday, with all three U.S. exchanges finishing in the red. Chicago SRW futures were down 6 to 7 cents on most contracts, while March slipped 11 cents at the close. The pullback reflects growing confidence in Russian production prospects and softer weekly export flows.

USDA export inspections showed 375,402 MT of wheat shipped during the week ending February 12, down 35.34% from the prior week but 49.66% above the same week last year. Despite solid year-over-year growth, the marketing year total of 17.704 MMT remains 18.91% below last year’s pace, reinforcing cautious sentiment.

Black Sea supply projections weighed heavily on wheat. SovEcon estimated the Russian wheat crop at 85.9 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from the previous outlook, while IKAR revised its 2026 wheat forecast to 91 MMT. Although shipping disruptions continue near the Black Sea port of Taman following drone strikes, export prices rose only modestly and physical flows persist under quota limits.

India added a new dimension to global wheat trade by permitting 2.5 MMT of wheat exports after more than three years of restrictions. With record domestic production and rising reserves, India’s re-entry could ease import pressure in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, adding longer-term bearish weight to global price expectations.

Corn futures fell 5 to 6 1/4 cents on Tuesday, pressured by softer weekly export inspections and broader commodity weakness. USDA reported 1.492 MMT of corn shipped during the week ending February 12, down 7.31% from the previous week and 8.06% below last year. However, cumulative marketing year exports remain 44.36% above last year’s level, underscoring strong underlying demand.

Brazilian supply developments remain a central focus for corn. AgRural estimates first crop harvest at 22%, trailing last year’s 29%, while second crop planting stands at 31%, below the 36% pace in 2025. Although progress lags, national output remains projected near 138 MMT, limiting upside momentum for U.S. prices.

Soybeans closed fractionally to 1 1/4 cents higher, supported by robust domestic processing and strong export inspections. NOPA reported January crush at 221.56 mbu, exceeding expectations and marking the largest January crush on record. Soybean oil stocks rose sharply, up 15.6% month-over-month and 49.07% above last year, tempering oil market enthusiasm.

Export inspections for soybeans reached 1.203 MMT, up 5.01% week-over-week and 65.3% above last year, with China accounting for 684,069 MT. Marketing year shipments now total 24.35 MMT, up 32.4% year-on-year, reinforcing the strength of U.S. soybean demand despite Brazilian harvest progress.

South American weather remains volatile. Heavy rains in Mato Grosso slowed Brazil’s harvest to 21%, below last year’s pace, while Argentina faces high storm activity in Córdoba, affecting corn and soybeans. Soil moisture has improved in some areas but remains uneven, keeping production risk elevated.

Vegetable oil and policy headlines added complexity. Malaysian palm oil exports fell 11.24% in early February, and India’s debate over genetically modified soybean oil imports under its U.S. trade agreement introduces demand uncertainty. Meanwhile, Brazil’s domestic corn market shows strengthening prices as producers limit spot supply, reflecting tight local availability despite large crop projections.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 11 cents. Weakness reflected improved Russian crop estimates, slower export shipments, and ongoing Black Sea logistics uncertainty.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.26 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents. Softer weekly shipments and comfortable Brazilian supply outlooks offset strong year-to-date export growth.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.34, up 1 cent. Record January crush data and firm export inspections supported prices despite rising soybean oil inventories and weather-driven harvest delays in Brazil.