Corn, soybeans and wheat open Friday under pressure as improved Midwest crop prospects offset support from a weaker US dollar, firm energy markets and strong soybean demand from China.
Chicago grains are starting Friday, 21 August, mostly lower as the market reassesses US production potential following the final day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Corn and soybeans have recovered from overnight lows, but stronger-than-feared yield and pod-count results are limiting upside, while wheat remains pressured by weak US export performance despite a lower global production outlook.
Better Midwest Crop Prospects Weigh on Early Trade
The dominant pressure at the start of Friday’s session is coming from improved crop expectations in Iowa and Minnesota. Pro Farmer estimated Iowa corn yields near 194 bpa, below last year’s 198 bpa but above the three-year average of 191.3 bpa, while Minnesota was estimated near 199 bpa, below 202.9 bpa last year but well above the three-year average of 183 bpa. The results reduce some of the supply concerns that supported corn earlier in the week and leave traders focused on the tour’s final national yield and production estimates due later today.
Soybean Pod Counts Ease Immediate Yield Concerns
Soybean crop tour results are also less threatening than earlier readings suggested. Iowa pod counts averaged 1,363 pods per 3×3-foot square, below last year’s 1,384 but above the three-year average of 1,296, while Minnesota reached 1,258 pods, above both last year’s 1,248 and the three-year average of 1,090. These figures are bearish at the margin for soybeans because they reduce the immediate risk of a major yield disappointment, although the US balance sheet still leaves limited room for yields to fall much below the current 52.7 bpa estimate without tightening stocks sharply.
Weaker Dollar and Firmer Energy Limit the Downside
The US dollar is moderately weaker and remains within Thursday’s range, helping grains recover from overnight lows by improving the competitiveness of US exports. Energy markets are also firmer, with Oct-26 WTI crude up $0.20 near $87 per barrel, while gasoline and heating oil are higher. The energy backdrop is supportive for corn and vegetable oils through biofuel demand, although it is not strong enough this morning to fully offset the pressure from better crop prospects.
China Buying Provides a Strong Demand Floor for Soybeans
Soybean demand remains one of the strongest supportive elements in the complex. China continues to accumulate US soybean purchases, while US Gulf FOB offers are running $0.35–$0.50/bu below Brazilian offers through the end of 2026. That price advantage is helping US beans remain competitive internationally and provides an important counterweight to the more comfortable crop tour results.
Forward Soybean Sales Strengthen the New-Crop Demand Story
US new-crop soybean commitments have reached 11.85 MMT, double the level seen at the same point last year and the largest forward sales book in four years. Additional sales of 712,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans to China and 720,000 MT to unknown destinations reinforce the view that export demand is building early. This strong forward demand is supportive for soybeans and increases the sensitivity of the balance sheet to any later deterioration in yield prospects.
Corn Demand Is Strong, but New-Crop Sales Lag Last Year
Corn fundamentals remain mixed. Old-crop commitments stand at 87.74 MMT, 24% above last year and already equivalent to 102% of the USDA projection, while an additional 205,000 MT was sold to unknown destinations this morning. New-crop commitments, however, are 21.7% behind last year at 11.391 MMT, suggesting that recent higher prices may be slowing forward demand even as the overall sales book remains historically large.
South American Corn Supply Faces Competing Signals
South American corn fundamentals offer both support and resistance. Argentina’s production forecast remains unchanged at 64 MMT, slightly above the USDA estimate of 63 MMT, although harvest progress at 81% continues to lag the historical pace in the mid-90s. At the same time, Brazil’s corn deficit for 2026/27 is forecast to widen to 7.2 MMT from 2.7 MMT in 2025/26 because of expanding ethanol demand, a supportive longer-term development for global feed grain values.
Wheat Struggles With Weak US Export Performance
Wheat remains the weakest part of the grain complex as US export performance continues to lag. US wheat exports are down around 32% from last year against a USDA forecast calling for a decline of only 15%, indicating that the current official export projection could prove too optimistic if the pace does not improve. Black Sea logistical disruptions could eventually redirect more demand toward US wheat, but for now weak export execution remains a clear bearish influence.
Lower Global Wheat Production Offers Some Support
The International Grains Council lowered its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast by 4 MMT to 817 MMT, below the referenced USDA estimate of 819.3 MMT. Russia’s wheat crop is also estimated at 88.2 MMT, down 0.3 MMT from the previous forecast. These reductions provide some underlying support, but they are currently being outweighed by slow US exports and seasonal harvest pressure, leaving wheat vulnerable unless Black Sea disruptions begin to materially alter trade flows.
Wheat Futures
Wheat is opening Friday lower across all three US classes. Sep-26 Chicago wheat is down 5 cents at $6.77 3/4/bu, Sep-26 KC wheat is down 8 cents at $7.54/bu, while spot Minneapolis wheat is down 7 cents at $6.93 3/4/bu. Weak US export performance is the main pressure point, while the reduced IGC global crop estimate and the possibility of further Black Sea logistical disruption provide only partial support.
Corn Futures
Corn is starting the day modestly weaker, with Sep-26 corn down 2 cents at $4.76 3/4/bu and Dec-26 corn down 2 cents at $5.01 3/4/bu, both holding within Thursday’s range. Better-than-feared crop tour results in Iowa and Minnesota are pressuring the market, while strong old-crop export commitments, the weaker dollar and rising Brazilian ethanol demand are helping limit the downside.
Soybean Futures
Soybeans are also lower at the start of Friday, with Sep-26 soybeans down 4 1/4 cents at $12.16 1/2/bu and Nov-26 down 4 3/4 cents at $12.31 3/4/bu. Sep-26 soybean meal is down $2.20 at $313.50, while Sep-26 soybean oil is steady at 71.18. Improved pod counts in Iowa and Minnesota are weighing on futures, but strong Chinese buying, competitive US Gulf FOB values and a large new-crop export book continue to provide meaningful underlying support.