Thursday’s grain trade is set to be headline-driven as the Trump-Xi meeting keeps Chinese demand hopes in focus, while stronger energy, Black Sea logistics and wet western harvest conditions compete with a firmer dollar and improving US Plains moisture.
Global grain markets begin Thursday, September 24, with a mixed tone. Corn is near unchanged, soybeans are firmer and wheat is slightly lower as traders wait for signals from the US-China summit, while weather, export demand and Black Sea logistics remain important secondary drivers.
US-China Trade Talks Dominate Thursday’s Risk
The meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi is the central market event of the day, with traders still hoping the summit will generate additional Chinese purchases of US corn and wheat. The two sides have already agreed to extend their trade truce by two months to January 10 while negotiations continue on a broader agreement. US officials have also highlighted China’s strong pace of soybean purchases while noting that other agricultural commitments remain behind schedule, keeping corn and wheat demand expectations firmly in focus.
For grains, the implication is straightforward: confirmed Chinese buying would be supportive, particularly for corn and wheat, while a summit without fresh agricultural commitments could expose the market to renewed profit-taking after several sessions of trade-driven speculation.
Black Sea Logistics Add a Major Supply Risk
Black Sea logistics remain one of the strongest supportive forces beneath the grain complex. Ukraine is looking to divert as much as 20 MMT of grain through Baltic ports as it shifts agricultural exports away from the Black Sea, but the alternative route could add around $100/ton in transportation costs. Ukraine is seeking $1.5–2 billion from the EU and international partners to help cover the additional logistical burden.
A separate estimate presented at the AgroFood Summit in Mersin suggests logistical disruption in the Black Sea could remove 38 MMT of grain supply from the global market in 2026/27, including 10 MMT of corn and 28 MMT of wheat. Even if global production remains adequate, restricted access to export channels can tighten physical availability and support regional grain values.
Black Sea Truce Hopes Provide a Counterweight
The geopolitical picture remains two-sided. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has said Ukraine is prepared for a ceasefire covering Black Sea or energy-related targets if Russia agrees to a similar arrangement, leaving the next move with Moscow. A credible truce would be bearish for wheat because it could lower freight and logistics risk, but until concrete progress emerges, the disruption premium remains embedded in the market.
Russian wheat demand is also showing clear weakness. Only 8 countries have bought Russian wheat so far in September 2026, down from 26 in September 2025; in August, 16 countries bought Russian wheat compared with 43 a year earlier. Fewer destinations limit Russia’s ability to fully translate supply into export pressure.
US Plains Rain Weighs on Wheat
Healthy rainfall across the US Plains is pressuring wheat prices early Thursday. Improved soil moisture is beneficial for winter wheat establishment and reduces some of the weather premium that had supported futures. That explains why wheat remains lower even as international logistics and smaller European production estimates provide a supportive backdrop.
Coceral has reduced its estimate for combined UK and EU wheat production to 137.5 MMT, down 3.3 MMT from its previous forecast. This tighter European production outlook provides underlying support, but at the start of Thursday the US weather improvement is exerting the stronger influence on Chicago and Kansas City wheat.
Western Harvest Delays Support Corn and Soybeans
Weather remains uneven across the US harvest belt. The central Midwest has been largely dry, giving producers a decent harvest window through the end of the month, while moderate to heavy rain is expected across the Plains and western Corn Belt into early next week. Harvest activity in western areas is therefore likely to slow, while the Central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt remain better positioned for continued fieldwork.
The impact is particularly supportive for soybeans and soymeal, where wet conditions have already reduced nearby availability in parts of the western Corn Belt. Delayed soybean harvest is tightening spot supplies and helping drive meal values higher even as soybean oil remains weak.
Soymeal Tightness Strengthens the Soybean Complex
Soymeal is becoming an increasingly important bullish driver within the soybean complex. October meal is sharply higher as spot supplies remain scarce in parts of the western Corn Belt, while wet weather continues to delay soybean availability. Spot meal resistance is identified at $394/ton, while crush margins have recovered to $2.45 1/2/bu.
At the same time, Sinograin plans to auction another 514,000 tons of government soybean reserves next Monday, and Brazil is expected to export around 8 MMT of soybeans in September, below the earlier 8.3 MMT forecast but still potentially a monthly record. Strong meal values therefore support US beans, while Chinese reserve sales and Brazilian exports limit the upside.
Export Sales Will Test Demand Across All Three Crops
Thursday’s USDA export sales report is another major catalyst. Wheat bookings are expected between 350,000 and 600,000 MT, corn between 0.8 and 1.4 MMT, and soybeans between 1.5 and 2 MMT for the week ended September 17. Strong numbers would reinforce the demand story ahead of the US-China summit, while disappointing sales could quickly shift attention back toward harvest pressure and large global supply.
The US also reported a private sale of 100,000 MT of 2026/27 corn to Mexico on Wednesday, providing a modest positive demand signal ahead of the broader weekly data.
Ethanol Demand Softens as Corn Remains Range-Bound
US ethanol production fell seasonally by 71,000 barrels per day to 1.028 million bpd in the week of September 18, while ethanol stocks declined by 537,000 barrels to 25.683 million barrels. Lower production reduces part of the domestic demand support for corn, although the stock draw limits the bearish impact.
Corn continues to hold inside the trading range established on the September 11 USDA report day, with initial technical support at $5.23 1/4. The market therefore still needs a stronger demand catalyst — most obviously Chinese purchases — to break decisively higher.
Energy Supports Oilseeds, but the Dollar Remains a Headwind
Energy markets are firmer Thursday, with Nov ’26 WTI crude up $1.55/barrel at $93.70, RBOB steady and heating oil up $0.03/gallon. Higher crude offers some cross-market support to the oilseed complex, although soybean oil itself remains slightly weaker in early trade.
The US dollar, however, is moderately stronger and has reached a fresh two-month high, reducing the competitiveness of US agricultural exports. With stock indices lower, the broader macro backdrop remains cautious despite stronger energy.
Wheat Futures
Wheat starts Thursday lower, pressured primarily by beneficial rainfall across the US Plains. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.03 3/4 at $7.04 3/4/bu, Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.03 1/2 at $7.68/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 at $7.28/bu. Black Sea logistics, reduced EU/UK production estimates and weak Russian export destination breadth provide underlying support, but improved US moisture is keeping the market defensive early in the session.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is steady at $5.29/bu in two-sided early trade, remaining within the range established after the September 11 USDA report, with first support at $5.23 1/4. Traders are focused on whether the US-China summit generates new demand, while slower western harvest activity, Black Sea logistics and the lower EU/UK production estimate provide support. Softer ethanol production and the stronger dollar limit the bullish case.
Soybean Futures
Soybeans are the strongest of the three major crops at the start of Thursday, with Nov ’26 beans up $0.08 1/2 at $13.26 1/2/bu. Oct ’26 soybean meal is up $6.30 at $376.60, while Oct ’26 soybean oil is down 20 points at 67.05, and crush margins have recovered $0.08 1/2 to $2.45 1/2/bu. Tight spot meal supply and wet harvest conditions in the western Corn Belt are supporting beans and meal, while Sinograin reserve sales, strong Brazilian exports and a firmer US dollar continue to cap the upside.