Corn struggles to extend its post-USDA recovery, soybeans retreat as Chinese buying slows, and wheat weakens as Black Sea and Baltic export risks remain in focus.
US grain markets are mostly lower on Tuesday, October 13, as traders await delayed US harvest and crop-condition data. Corn is holding near Monday’s range after its modest rebound from Friday’s selloff, soybeans are weaker, and wheat is trading lower across the major contracts. Rain moving into the central Midwest could temporarily slow harvest, while the broader outlook remains warm and relatively wet across much of the US midsection.
Delayed Harvest Data Becomes the Main US Catalyst
Export inspections and crop progress reports are due later Tuesday after Monday’s federal holiday. The latest outlook estimates corn harvest at 39% complete, compared with the five-year average of 42%, while soybean harvest is expected near 47%, below the historical average of 54%.
Dry conditions dominated much of the central US over the previous 24 hours, but moisture is now expected to move from the southwestern Plains into the central Midwest, bringing moderate to heavy rain. That could slow fieldwork temporarily, particularly as soybean harvesting remains behind its historical pace.
Corn Recovery Remains Capped After Friday’s USDA Shock
Corn continues to stabilize following Friday’s sharp USDA-driven decline, but the rebound remains technically constrained. Dec ’26 corn is holding around $4.83/bu, with attempts to rally since Friday capped by the 100-day moving average at $4.84 3/4. Longer-term support is identified at the August low of $4.57 1/4.
Open interest fell by nearly 25,000 contracts on Monday, while farmer selling has largely dried up since Friday. Demand therefore becomes increasingly important after the USDA’s unexpected production increase. Fresh international buying offered some support, with South Korean importers purchasing a combined 261,000 MT of corn overnight.
Chinese demand expectations remain restrained. COFCO’s futures research director estimates China’s 2026/27 corn imports at 3.5 MMT, down 0.17 MMT from the previous year, while sorghum imports are projected to increase to 8 MMT.
Soybeans Weaken as Chinese Buying Slows
Soybeans are under renewed pressure Tuesday morning. Chinese purchases have slowed since late September and are estimated at just over 15 MMT, although COFCO officials expect China’s imports during the fourth quarter of 2026 to average around 9.5 MMT per month, compared with 8.5 MMT per month in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Sinograin sold 209,904 MT of soybeans from state reserves, equivalent to 40.5% of the 518,000 MT offered. The partial sale provides another indication of current domestic demand conditions in China.
South American planting is also advancing. AgRural reports Brazilian soybean planting at 15% as of October 8, compared with 14% a year earlier, while Brazil’s first corn crop planting has reached 44%, just below last year’s 45%.
Soybean Oil Holds Firmer Despite Lower Energy
The soybean complex remains divided. Soybeans and meal are lower, while soybean oil is firmer and testing its 100-day moving average. Crush margins have eased by $0.04 to $2.74 1/2/bu after reaching a three-month high on Monday.
Energy markets are mostly lower, with spot WTI crude down $1.50 at $92.25 per barrel and gasoline also weaker. That limits some of the broader support for vegetable oils despite soybean oil’s relative strength.
Wheat Faces Renewed Black Sea and Export Uncertainty
Wheat is lower across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis as Black Sea and Baltic developments remain prominent. Russian drone strikes damaged a cargo terminal in the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv, while Baltic countries continue to urge the EU to restrict Russian grain movement through the region to Baltic ports.
IKAR cut its Russian 2026 wheat production forecast by 0.5 MMT to 88 MMT and lowered its export forecast by 1.5 MMT to 42 MMT. Rabobank forecasts Australian 2026/27 wheat production at 31 MMT, down 13.3% year on year. Algeria is also tendering for 50,000 MT of wheat, with offers due Tuesday.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.03 1/2 at $6.68 3/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.02 1/2 at $7.13/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 1/4 at $6.95/bu. Black Sea disruption and lower Russian production and export forecasts provide underlying support, but Tuesday trade remains defensive.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is steady at $4.83/bu. Rally attempts remain capped by the 100-day moving average at $4.84 3/4, with longer-term support at $4.57 1/4. The market continues to search for demand after Friday’s USDA-driven supply shock.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.05 1/4 at $12.82 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $6.70 at $362.00, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is up 50 points at 69.13. November soybean support is at the 50-day moving average of $12.69 3/4. Slower Chinese purchases and advancing harvest pressure beans, while soybean oil remains the firmer part of the complex.