Corn, soybeans and wheat trade lower Wednesday morning as markets give back part of Tuesday’s surge, while Black Sea shipping risks and delayed US harvest progress continue to provide underlying support.
US grain markets are mostly lower on Wednesday, October 7, following Tuesday’s strong rally. A sharply firmer US dollar and improving harvest conditions across much of the Midwest are limiting follow-through buying, while attention is increasingly shifting toward Friday’s USDA production and balance-sheet update.
Harvest Delays Remain Supportive, but Dry Weather Should Help
Tuesday’s rally was driven largely by speculative buying following weaker US crop ratings and the slow harvest pace. Corn harvest is only 23% complete, four percentage points behind average, while soybean harvest stands at 25%, eight percentage points behind normal.
Dry weather across much of the Midwest this week should allow fieldwork to accelerate, reducing some of the immediate support from harvest delays. Rain is expected to return to parts of the Plains and western Corn Belt toward the end of the one-week outlook.
Soybeans Pause as China Returns From Holiday
Soybeans are slightly lower after Tuesday’s sharp gains. Chinese purchases have slowed since late September, but activity may begin to recover as the country returns from its holiday period on Thursday. Purchases for the 2026/27 marketing year are estimated at 14–15 MMT.
US Gulf offers remain around $0.20 below Brazilian offers through the end of the year, supporting near-term US competitiveness. From January, however, Brazilian offers are quoted $0.80–$0.90 below US values, creating a less favorable outlook for US demand further ahead.
Black Sea Shipping Risk Keeps Wheat Supported
Wheat is also giving back part of Tuesday’s rally, but Black Sea logistics remain an important source of underlying risk. The source reports strikes on two additional vessels in the Black Sea off the Bulgarian coast, following another vessel strike off Romania a day earlier.
At the same time, Russian wheat continues to move through alternative routes. Shipments through the Baltic region reached 1.4 MMT in September and could rise to 1.8 MMT in October, helping offset some of the logistical concern. US winter wheat planting also remains slow at 36%, ten percentage points behind the five-year average.
Strong August Corn Exports Contrast With Current Harvest Pressure
US corn exports reached a record 7.422 MMT in August, up 25.71% from July. Ethanol exports were also a record 211.77 million gallons.
The stronger export background provides support, but improving harvest weather and expectations for Friday’s USDA update are keeping the market cautious after Tuesday’s gains.
Friday’s USDA Report Becomes the Main Catalyst
Market attention is now moving toward Friday’s USDA production and balance-sheet data. Survey expectations cited in the source point to US corn production around 15.721 billion bushels and soybean production around 4.534 billion bushels, making the report the next major test for the recent rally.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.06 at $6.98/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.07 at $7.49/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.02 1/4 at $7.17 1/2/bu. Prices are retreating after Tuesday’s rally, although Black Sea shipping risks and slow US winter wheat planting continue to provide support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is down $0.04 at $5.04/bu. Support is at $4.88, with the next resistance at last week’s high of $5.29. Improving harvest weather is weighing on prices after Tuesday’s advance, while Friday’s USDA production update remains the key near-term catalyst.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are down $0.01 1/2 at $13.01 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.50 at $356.30, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 51 points at 69.40. The return of Chinese demand after the holiday period could become supportive, while improving US harvest conditions and stronger Brazilian competitiveness from January limit the upside.