A bearish corn stocks surprise, renewed harvest pressure and elevated US production estimates outweighed stronger soybean demand and tighter wheat fundamentals, leaving all three major grain markets lower for the week.
Global grain markets ended the September 28–October 2 week under pressure, with corn suffering the sharpest percentage decline and soybeans posting the largest loss in cents. Early optimism around US-China trade gave way to a more defensive tone after USDA revealed substantially larger corn stocks, while StoneX’s high US production estimates added pressure into Friday. Wheat also finished lower, although tighter US stocks and growing Black Sea supply concerns limited some of the downside.
Black Sea Region Weekly Recap
The Black Sea grain and oilseed market closed the week with a mixed supply picture. Ukraine continues to point to a relatively strong corn and sunflower harvest despite difficult summer conditions, with corn production projected at around 35.1 MMT and sunflower at 14 MMT. Soybeans remain the main weak spot, with production expected at 3.68 MMT, or 23% below the five-year average.
Turkey remains an important source of regional oilseed demand. Sunflower production is forecast at 1.8 MMT in 2026/27, but domestic consumption of 3.4 MMT means sizeable imports will still be required, with seed imports projected at around 1.8 MMT. Meanwhile, Romania is dealing with firm corn prices of approximately €202–203/tonne alongside a significant storage constraint, as expected grain production of 31.4 MMT compares with licensed capacity of only 16.5 MMT.
The key regional theme is therefore the growing divergence between production and logistics. Ukraine retains meaningful export potential, Turkey continues to depend heavily on imported sunflower seed, and Romania’s stronger crop is putting pressure on storage infrastructure. At the same time, broader wheat and corn markets remain under pressure, even as Coceral cut its 2026 EU and UK corn production forecast from 52.7 MMT to 48.6 MMT.
US-China Trade Failed to Deliver for Soybeans
The week opened with a sharp soybean selloff after the latest US-China agreement reduced tariffs on several US products but left soybeans outside the tariff relief. That immediately weakened expectations for broader Chinese commercial demand and pushed November soybeans sharply lower on Monday.
Actual demand remained much stronger than the initial price reaction suggested. Weekly soybean export sales later reached 1.034 MMT, up 77.45% from the previous week, with China buying 589,400 MT. By Friday, total soybean export commitments stood at 22.236 MMT, up 89% year over year.
The result was a clear conflict between supportive physical demand and a more cautious futures market.
Corn Takes the Biggest Hit From USDA Stocks
The week’s most important turning point came with Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report. September 1 corn stocks were reported at 2.095 billion bushels, 184 million above trade expectations and 173 million above the previous USDA ending-stocks estimate. December corn immediately lost more than 21 cents.
Demand offered little resistance. Total corn export commitments reached 18.774 MMT by Friday, down 31% from last year and eight percentage points behind the five-year average sales pace. Managed money also cut its net long position by another 36,587 contracts to 377,850, largely through long liquidation.
Corn therefore shifted from expectations of tighter stocks before the report to a much more comfortable domestic supply picture by midweek.
Tighter Soybean Stocks Could Not Offset Production Pressure
Soybean stocks moved in the opposite direction. USDA reported 315 million bushels at the end of August, 10 million below last year and 6 million below trade expectations. Yet soybeans failed to sustain a rally, partly because of spillover from the sharp corn decline.
The pressure intensified late in the week when StoneX raised its US soybean production estimate to 4.648 billion bushels with a yield of 54.1 bpa, well above USDA’s September production estimate of 4.535 billion. Speculative funds also reduced their soybean net long by 23,877 contracts during the week.
Strong Chinese buying and lower soybean oil stocks provided support, but they were not enough to overcome the larger production outlook and renewed harvest pressure.
Harvest Delays Gave Way to Drier Weather
Heavy rain across the western Corn Belt and Plains slowed harvest through much of the week and temporarily supported nearby soybean and meal values by restricting crop movement. By Friday, however, the weather outlook had turned more favorable for fieldwork, with drier and seasonally warm conditions expected across much of the US midsection into mid-October.
That shift matters because harvest resumption should increase physical corn and soybean availability and reduce some of the basis strength created by earlier delays.
Wheat Finds Support, but Demand Remains Weak
Wheat also finished lower despite tighter US stocks. September 1 wheat inventories came in at 1.846 billion bushels, below expectations and 288 million below last year, while total production was reported at 1.534 billion bushels.
Black Sea developments offered additional support. SovEcon cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 4.7 MMT to 36.7 MMT, while Ukraine’s wheat area could fall 17% for 2027. Ukrainian July–September wheat exports were also down 41% year over year.
The limiting factor was demand. US wheat export commitments of 9.737 MMT were still 31% below last year and behind the normal sales pace.
Energy and Positioning Added to the Defensive Tone
Macro support weakened into the end of the week. November crude oil fell to $89.55/barrel on Friday morning after trading at $95.00 earlier in the week, while the US dollar reached an 18-month high on Thursday before easing slightly Friday.
Positioning also became more defensive. Funds reduced long exposure in corn and soybeans, while managed money expanded its Chicago wheat net short to 21,670 contracts. This liquidation amplified the week’s fundamentally bearish developments without changing the underlying demand contrast between crops.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 CBOT wheat closed Friday at $6.83/bu, up 1/4 cent on the session but down 20 1/4 cents for the week. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat lost 26 3/4 cents over the week, while Minneapolis December declined 15 1/2 cents. Tighter US stocks and reduced Black Sea export expectations provided support, but weak US export commitments and improving Plains moisture kept the market under pressure.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn closed at $4.97 3/4/bu, down 4 1/2 cents Friday and 30 1/2 cents, or 5.77%, for the week. The USDA stocks surprise became the dominant bearish factor, reinforced by weak export commitments, long liquidation and the prospect of harvest resuming under drier weather.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans closed at $12.78 1/4/bu, down 5 3/4 cents Friday and 40 3/4 cents for the week. December soybean meal lost $23.50 over the week, while December soybean oil gained 78 points. Strong Chinese demand and tighter US stocks offered support, but the exclusion of soybeans from tariff relief, speculative liquidation, improving harvest weather and StoneX’s higher production estimate ultimately dominated the market.