Thursday trade is attempting to stabilize after USDA’s quarterly stocks report triggered heavy selling in corn, while tighter soybean stocks, delayed harvest and weaker Black Sea wheat exports provide selective support across the grain complex.
Global grain markets are mixed to firmer on Thursday, October 1, following a volatile reaction to Wednesday’s USDA data. Corn is trying to recover after September 1 stocks came in sharply above expectations, wheat is bouncing from a seven-week low, while soybeans remain supported by tighter US inventories and harvest delays in the western Corn Belt.
Corn Absorbs a Bearish Stocks Surprise
The biggest development remains USDA’s corn stocks figure. September 1 stocks were reported at 2.095 billion bushels, well above 1.551 billion bushels last year, 173 million above the previous USDA ending-stocks estimate and 184 million above trade expectations. The surprise triggered aggressive speculative selling on Wednesday and pushed December futures down more than 21 cents.
Attention now shifts back toward demand and harvest. Heavy rain is still slowing fieldwork across parts of the western Corn Belt, while August corn use for ethanol is expected at 470 million bushels, compared with 459 million a year earlier. Ukraine’s September corn exports also reached 1.929 MMT, more than double the 0.913 MMT shipped a year ago.
Soybeans Find Support From Tighter US Stocks
Soybean stocks provided the most supportive result in Wednesday’s report. Inventories at the end of August were 315 million bushels, 10 million below last year and 6 million below trade expectations. USDA also reported a fresh private export sale of 105,000 MT to unknown destinations Thursday morning.
Delayed harvest in the western Corn Belt continues to keep processor bids firm and soybean meal supplies scarce. At the same time, July biodiesel and renewable diesel production reached a record 528 million gallons, while soybean oil use also hit a record 1.687 billion pounds. These demand signals help support the soybean complex despite cautious trade and near-record speculative length.
Wheat Balances Tighter Stocks Against Weak Price Action
US wheat stocks were reported at 1.846 billion bushels, below trade expectations and 288 million bushels below last year, while total wheat production of 1.534 billion bushels was slightly above expectations. Despite the tighter stocks figure, wheat sold off Wednesday, suggesting that the report was not bullish enough to overcome broader selling pressure.
Black Sea supply signals are more supportive. SovEcon cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 4.7 MMT to 36.7 MMT, while Ukrainian wheat exports in September were 1.1 MMT, down from 2.05 MMT last year. July–September Ukrainian shipments are now 41% lower year over year.
Wet Weather Delays Harvest, Strong Dollar Adds a Headwind
Heavy precipitation continues across the Southern Plains, western Corn Belt and north-central Midwest, with isolated flooding possible in parts of Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa. Harvest progress is likely to remain stalled for several more days before drier conditions arrive, offering some nearby support to corn and soybeans by slowing crop movement.
The macro backdrop is less supportive. Nov ’26 WTI crude oil is up $1.30/barrel at $91.75, but the US dollar has surged to an 18-month high, creating a stronger headwind for US export competitiveness.
Export Demand Returns to Focus
Weekly export sales are the next immediate demand test. Trade expectations call for 250,000–450,000 MT of wheat, 0.5–1.3 MMT of corn, and roughly 0.85–1.0 MMT of soybeans. Wheat also has several fresh international tenders in the market, including purchases and inquiries from South Korea, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.04 at $6.80/bu, rebounding after reaching a fresh seven-week low. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up $0.07 at $7.40/bu, having held support at its 100-day moving average of $7.28 1/2, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.05 1/2 at $6.99/bu. Tighter US stocks and lower Russian and Ukrainian export availability are supportive, while Wednesday’s weak price response shows that selling pressure remains significant.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.02 1/4 at $5.03/bu after Wednesday’s sharp USDA-driven decline. The next cited support is $4.88. The unexpectedly large US stocks figure remains the dominant bearish factor, while harvest delays and the possibility that lower prices stimulate additional demand provide some support.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.01 in two-sided morning trade; the Morning Ag Outlook does not provide a corresponding current futures price. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $0.30 at $356.60, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 35 points at 67.93. Tighter US stocks, delayed western harvest and strong soybean-oil demand remain supportive, while the pace of Chinese purchases continues to be the key demand variable.