Tuesday trade turns mostly higher after Monday’s speculative liquidation, but tomorrow’s US grain stocks data, harvest progress and unresolved Black Sea risk are keeping the market cautious.
Global grain markets are attempting to stabilize on Tuesday, September 29, after Monday’s broad selloff. Soybeans and corn are modestly higher in early trade, while wheat remains under pressure as traders turn their attention toward Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and annual Small Grain Summary. Monday’s weakness was driven largely by speculative liquidation following the US-China trade agreement, which reduced tariffs on several agricultural products but left US soybean imports outside the tariff relief.
Markets Rebalance After Monday’s Speculative Selloff
Monday’s session produced substantial liquidation across the grain complex, particularly in soybeans. Open interest declined by 19,381 contracts in soybeans, while wheat and corn also saw lower participation, suggesting that part of the decline reflected traders exiting existing long exposure rather than an aggressive wave of new short positioning.
The market is seeing a partial recovery Tuesday morning, but the tone remains cautious. The failure of the latest US-China agreement to reduce the tariff on US soybean imports remains a significant constraint for the oilseed complex, even as early soybean prices recover from Monday’s sharp decline.
Wednesday’s US Stocks Data Becomes the Next Major Catalyst
Attention is shifting quickly toward Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and annual Small Grain Summary. Expectations point to relatively limited revisions to US wheat production and 2025/26 corn and soybean ending stocks, but the report has the potential to reset supply expectations across all three markets.
The Reuters survey places September 1 US corn stocks at 1.918 billion bushels, compared with 1.551 billion bushels a year ago and slightly below the September USDA estimate of 1.922 billion. Soybean stocks are expected at 324 million bushels, versus 325 million last year, while wheat stocks are expected at 1.872 billion bushels, well below 2.134 billion a year earlier. US wheat production is expected at 1.524 billion bushels, down from 1.531 billion in August.
The implications differ by crop. Corn enters the report with expectations for substantially larger year-on-year stocks, while soybean supplies are expected to remain almost unchanged. Wheat stocks, meanwhile, are expected to be considerably below last year, creating a potentially supportive supply backdrop even as other factors pressure futures.
Soybean Export Inspections Offer a Strong Counterweight to Trade Concerns
Soybeans received one of the strongest demand signals in Monday’s export inspection data. Weekly shipments totaled 1.153 MMT, up 49.8% from the previous week and 88.8% above the same week last year. China accounted for 806,776 MT, followed by Egypt with 114,362 MT and Japan with 50,777 MT.
Marketing-year soybean shipments have reached 2.844 MMT, now 25.7% ahead of the same period last year. This strong physical movement provides an important counterbalance to the bearish tariff story and helps explain why soybeans are attempting to rebound Tuesday after Monday’s liquidation.
The market is therefore dealing with two opposing signals: tariff policy continues to limit broader Chinese commercial access to US beans, but actual export shipments remain strong and China is still the dominant destination.
Wheat Demand Remains the Weakest Link
The export picture is much less supportive for wheat. Weekly inspections totaled 310,635 MT, down 8.62% from the previous week and 64.44% below the same week last year. The Philippines was the largest destination with 120,999 MT, followed by Mexico and Nigeria.
Marketing-year wheat shipments stand at 6.343 MMT, down 34.42% year over year. That weak demand profile is adding pressure to a market already dealing with improving US Plains moisture and a bearish technical tone.
Corn inspections offer a more balanced signal. Weekly shipments of 1.566 MMT were down 20.11% from the prior week but remained 1.73% above last year, while marketing-year exports of 5.726 MMT are running 12.08% ahead of the same period last year.
US Harvest Reaches Average Pace
US harvest progress is no longer providing a broad bullish weather signal. Corn harvest reached 18% complete, matching the five-year average and slightly above the 17% pace from last year. The crop was 72% mature, while condition ratings remained steady at 57% good to excellent.
Soybean harvest also reached 17% complete, matching the five-year average and sitting just below the 18% pace from a year ago. Conditions held at 58% good to excellent, while 75% of the crop was dropping leaves.
This removes some of the urgency around harvest delays at the national level. Rain continues to slow fieldwork in the western Corn Belt and Plains, but favorable conditions across the Central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt are allowing harvest to progress normally elsewhere.
Western Rain Delays Harvest While Plains Moisture Helps Wheat
Weather remains split in its impact across crops. Rain continues across the western Corn Belt and Plains, slowing harvest activity there, while the Central Midwest and eastern Corn Belt are enjoying more favorable conditions. That pattern is expected to continue for several more days before precipitation shifts east, with drier conditions developing in the western areas later in the week.
For soybeans, localized harvest delays can offer some nearby support by slowing crop movement. For wheat, however, Plains rainfall remains largely beneficial by easing drought conditions and improving establishment prospects for the winter crop, even as planting remains behind normal.
Winter wheat planting has reached 27%, up 10 percentage points but still below both the 32% pace from last year and the 34% five-year average. Emergence stands at 8%, compared with an 11% five-year average.
South American Weather Adds to the New-Crop Supply Story
Heavy rainfall in southern Brazil has produced localized flooding, while more widespread but moderate rain is occurring across Argentina. Over the next seven days, precipitation is expected to continue favoring southern Brazil with scattered showers across west-central growing regions.
Brazilian soybean planting is estimated at 3.4% complete, slightly ahead of the 3.2% pace last year. For the soybean market, advancing South American planting keeps future supply competition in focus at the same time US harvest and Chinese demand are driving nearby price direction.
Black Sea Uncertainty Continues Despite Diplomatic Signals
Black Sea developments remain a major source of uncertainty for wheat. Early reports Tuesday pointed to constructive discussions between US and Russian officials regarding a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine, but Ukraine’s agriculture minister indicated that the country does not expect a ceasefire covering Black Sea shipping for several months.
Russia is estimated to have exported 2.3 MMT of wheat in September, above more recent estimates of 2.1–2.2 MMT. This suggests Russian export flows are continuing despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, limiting the immediate bullish impact of Black Sea risk on wheat prices.
Lower Energy and a Stronger Dollar Limit Commodity Support
Macro markets are offering little help to grains Tuesday morning. Nov ’26 WTI crude oil is down $1.70/barrel at $90.90, RBOB gasoline is down $0.06/gallon and heating oil is $0.10 lower.
At the same time, the US dollar is moderately higher and has extended to a two-month high, creating an additional headwind for US export competitiveness. US equity markets are mixed and little changed. The combination of weaker energy and a stronger dollar limits broader commodity support while crop-specific fundamentals take the lead.
Wheat Futures
Wheat remains the weakest part of the grain complex Tuesday morning. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down $0.01 1/4 at $6.87 1/2/bu, with near-term support at the 100-day moving average of $6.76. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down $0.07 1/2 at $7.38 1/4/bu, with 100-day moving-average support at $7.27 1/2, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is down $0.01 at $7.01/bu after slipping to a six-week low. Weak export inspections, beneficial Plains rainfall and continued liquidation are pressuring prices, while Black Sea uncertainty and expectations for lower US wheat stocks provide underlying support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.02 1/2 at $5.25 1/2/bu, remaining within Monday’s range. Harvest has reached 18%, matching the five-year average, while crop conditions remain steady at 57% good to excellent. Updated ratings imply an average US yield of 178.3 bpa and production of 15.784 billion bushels, up 10 million bushels from last week but slightly below the USDA forecast of 15.80 billion. Stronger year-to-date export shipments and Tuesday’s modest recovery are supportive, but expectations for September 1 stocks of 1.918 billion bushels continue to cap upside.
Soybean Futures
Soybeans are recovering modestly after Monday’s sharp decline. Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.04 at $12.92/bu, with major support identified at the 50-day moving average of $12.55. Oct ’26 soybean meal is down $1.70 at $360, while Oct ’26 soybean oil is up 74 points at 67.85. Crush margins are up $0.01 at $2.48/bu. Strong export inspections and steady crop conditions are helping stabilize beans, but the continued exclusion of US soybeans from China’s tariff reductions and the recent liquidation of speculative longs remain important constraints on the rebound.