Heavy Midwest rain and strong soybean demand supported the grain complex early in the week, but a stronger dollar, improving US Plains moisture, expanding global supply and heavy speculative positioning pulled wheat and corn lower into Friday.

Global grain markets moved through another volatile week from September 14–18, with soybeans proving the strongest of the three major crops. Soybeans recovered sharply through midweek on Chinese demand, stronger meal values and slower expected acreage expansion in Brazil, while corn remained largely range-bound and wheat struggled to hold gains. By Friday, however, broader macro pressure, improving wheat weather and speculative liquidation pushed much of the complex lower into the weekend.

Heavy Midwest Rain Slowed Harvest and Supported Corn and Soybeans

Weather was one of the most persistent supportive factors throughout the week. Repeated rounds of heavy rain moved from the Central Plains into the northern and central Midwest and Great Lakes region, slowing crop maturation and delaying early harvest progress. By Friday, forecasts still showed wet conditions from parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, while the southern Midwest remained hotter and drier and therefore more favorable for fieldwork.

The harvest itself was already advancing faster than normal in parts of the US. By September 13, corn harvest had reached 8%, while 42% of the crop was mature and soybean harvest stood at 6%, ahead of the five-year average pace of 3%. Rain delays therefore provided support not because harvest had stopped, but because they slowed the pace at which new physical supply could reach the market.

Soybeans Led the Week on Chinese Demand and Stronger Meal

Soybeans were the strongest major crop for much of the week. Monday closed higher at $13.04 1/4/bu, Tuesday jumped to $13.18 3/4, and Wednesday reached $13.20 1/2, with meal strength and renewed speculative buying driving the recovery. By midweek, Nov ’26 beans had moved to within only a few cents of the $13.35 1/4 contract high.

Chinese demand was the key fundamental support. Weekly soybean export sales reached 1.7 MMT, nearly double the same week last year, with China taking 875,300 MT and another 218,900 MT booked to unknown destinations. By the end of the week, total Chinese purchases were estimated around 13–13.5 MMT, while US Gulf FOB offers remained below Brazilian values, reinforcing US export competitiveness.

Brazil’s Soybean Outlook Limited the Bearish Supply Story

Brazil remained an important counterweight, but the latest figures were not as bearish as they could have been. CONAB projected Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean area to expand by only 0.7% to 49.3 million hectares, the slowest growth in 20 years, with production at 181.6 MMT, below USDA’s 186 MMT estimate. That slower acreage expansion helped support US soybeans, particularly as Chinese demand remained firm.

Domestic processing data were less supportive. August NOPA crush totaled around 205.5 million bushels, below expectations and below July’s 216.7 million, while the daily crush rate fell to a 12-month low. However, soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.201 billion lbs, down 11.7% from July and the lowest since November 2024, helping tighten part of the product balance even as crush itself disappointed.

Record Speculative Length Turned From Support Into a Risk

Heavy speculative positioning remained one of the most important risks across the oilseed complex. Early in the week, the combined managed-money long position across soybeans, meal and oil stood near a record 527,000 contracts, while traders continued adding exposure in soybeans and meal. That positioning helped accelerate the midweek recovery, but it also left the market increasingly vulnerable to liquidation once fresh bullish news became harder to find.

By September 15, managed money had reduced its soybean net long by 21,321 contracts to 244,710, showing that some of the earlier optimism was already being unwound. Soybeans still managed to finish the week higher overall, but Friday’s 9–17 cent selloff demonstrated how quickly crowded speculative positioning could reverse the market.

Corn Remained Range-Bound Between Demand and Expanding Supply

Corn spent most of the week trapped in a narrow range. Dec ’26 futures closed Monday at $5.33 1/4, Tuesday at $5.35 3/4, Wednesday at $5.34 1/4 and Thursday at $5.30 1/2, with the market unable to break decisively higher or lower. Harvest pressure and larger global supply estimates capped rallies, while solid export demand and Midwest rain provided support.

Brazil was the clearest bearish supply factor. CONAB raised its 2025/26 corn estimate to 144 MMT and projected 148 MMT for 2026/27, well above USDA’s 139 MMT estimate, while first-crop planting reached 22% versus 17% a year ago. Argentina also maintained a large 64 MMT production forecast for 2025/26, with 2026/27 planting already at 11%.

Corn Demand Stayed Active but Not Strong Enough to Break the Range

US corn demand remained constructive but not sufficiently strong to create a breakout. Weekly export sales totaled 1.027 MMT, led by Mexico at 626,000 MT, while South Korean buyers purchased another 260,000 MT on Thursday and 130,000 MT overnight into Friday. Ethanol production also held at 1.099 million barrels per day, 4.17% above the same week last year.

Despite those supportive flows, 2026/27 corn export commitments stood at 17.4 MMT, down 27% from the same period last year and behind both last year’s pace and the five-year average. With managed money still holding a very large net long of 426,842 contracts, the market remained vulnerable to liquidation if fresh demand failed to emerge.

Weak French Corn Conditions Provided Support to Europe

European corn fundamentals became increasingly supportive during the week. France cut its 2026 production forecast to 8.1 MMT, compared with 12 MMT a year earlier and the lowest level in more than 40 years. By Friday, only 23% of the French crop was rated good to excellent, down from 26% the previous week and far below 62% last year, while harvest had already reached 27% versus only 5% a year ago.

This poor French crop provided underlying support to European and Black Sea corn values, but it was not enough to offset the larger South American supply outlook or produce a sustained rally in Chicago.

Wheat Was Caught Between Black Sea Risk and Improving US Weather

Wheat experienced the clearest battle between supportive logistics and bearish weather. The market strengthened Tuesday and Wednesday, with Dec ’26 Chicago wheat closing at $7.28 1/2 and then $7.30 3/4, as Black Sea export disruptions, weaker regional flows and renewed geopolitical uncertainty supported prices. Combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports from July through September were estimated at only 8 MMT, compared with 16.2–16.4 MMT a year ago.

By the second half of the week, improving rainfall prospects across the US Plains removed much of the weather premium. US winter wheat area in drought fell to 57%, while spring wheat and durum drought coverage also declined. Better moisture prospects weighed particularly heavily on Kansas City wheat and helped drive the broader complex lower into Friday.

Wheat Export Demand Remained a Structural Weakness

US wheat demand improved during the week but remained well behind last year. Weekly sales reached 325,935 MT, a three-week high, but total 2026/27 commitments stood at 9.178 MMT, down 30% year over year and equal to only 44% of USDA’s export projection, compared with a normal pace around 53%. This weak performance continued to cap rallies despite Black Sea disruptions.

International demand still provided some support. Algeria purchased nearly 500,000 MT earlier in the week, while Pakistan’s reported 750,000 MT tender remained in focus later, with offers around $348.80–$353/MT C&F. At the same time, Russia continued looking for alternative export routes, with plans for Murmansk to begin handling grain in October.

The Dollar Became a Growing Macro Headwind

Macro conditions shifted from supportive early in the week to more restrictive by Friday. WTI crude began the week around $103.05/barrel following disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure, helping support the grain and oilseed complex, but energy prices weakened later as supply concerns eased.

The more important late-week move came from the US dollar. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar moved to a seven-week high and remained firm into Friday. That strengthened the headwind for US agricultural exports and added pressure to wheat, corn and oilseeds just as harvest supply was increasing.

Wheat Futures

Wheat finished the week weaker despite midweek gains. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat closed Friday at $7.14 1/4/bu, down 12 3/4 cents on the session and 11 cents from the previous Friday. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat lost 14 3/4 cents over the week, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat was down only 3 3/4 cents. Black Sea export constraints and international tenders offered support, but improving US Plains moisture, weak US export performance and speculative selling dominated by the end of the week.

Corn Futures

Corn ended the week modestly lower after spending most sessions inside a narrow range. Dec ’26 corn closed Friday at $5.27 1/2/bu, down 3 cents on the day and 2 3/4 cents for the week. Solid export demand, South Korean purchases, Midwest rain and poor French crop conditions limited downside, but larger Brazilian and Argentine supply expectations, harvest pressure and the absence of a new major demand catalyst prevented a sustained rally.

Soybean Futures

Soybeans were the relative outperformer despite Friday’s sharp correction. Nov ’26 soybeans closed at $13.03 1/2/bu, down 16 1/4 cents on Friday but still up 7 cents for the week. Strong Chinese demand, slower projected soybean acreage expansion in Brazil, tighter soybean oil stocks and harvest delays supported the market through midweek, while record speculative exposure, weaker energy prices and profit-taking capped the advance into the weekend.