Corn, soybeans and wheat open higher as weaker US crop conditions and delayed harvest progress provide support, while lower crude oil weighs on soybean oil.
US grain markets are mostly higher on Tuesday, October 6, with corn and soybeans supported by larger-than-expected declines in crop ratings and slower harvest progress. Wheat is also firmer as US winter wheat planting remains behind average, while lower energy prices are pressuring soybean oil. USDA’s updated production and balance-sheet estimates on Friday are the next major fundamental focus.
Slow Harvest and Weaker Ratings Support Corn
US corn harvest reached only 23% complete, four percentage points behind the average pace, while crop ratings fell three points to 54% good to excellent. The morning outlook describes the harvest as the slowest in seven years, with particularly large delays in Iowa and Nebraska.
Dry weather across much of the Midwest this week should allow fieldwork to accelerate, limiting some of the support from current delays. Export demand remains constructive: weekly corn inspections reached 1.368 MMT, 13.49% above the same week last year, while USDA also reported a 129,540 MT sale to Mexico.
Soybeans Gain as Harvest Falls Behind
Soybean harvest is also running behind schedule, reaching 25% complete, seven percentage points behind normal. Crop ratings slipped to 57% good to excellent, reinforcing concerns around the crop as harvest progresses.
Demand provides additional support. USDA reported a 104,000 MT soybean sale to an unknown destination, while weekly export inspections reached 1.138 MMT, up 45.3% from the previous week. China accounted for 756,492 MT, although fresh demand interest may remain subdued until the Chinese holiday ends on Thursday.
Soybean oil is the exception to the stronger tone, pressured by weaker energy markets as spot WTI crude falls $2.25 to $87.20 per barrel, a one-month low.
Wheat Supported by Slow Winter Planting
Wheat is trading higher as US winter wheat planting continues to lag. Planting reached 36%, compared with the five-year average of 46%, while emergence stands at 16% versus the 20% average.
Export data remain mixed. US wheat inspections of 302,356 MT were 48.95% below the same week last year, while marketing-year shipments are 35% lower year over year. In the Black Sea region, Russia exported 2.4 MMT of wheat in September, including a record 1 MMT through Baltic ports, although July–September shipments of 6.4 MMT remain well below the 11.3 MMT recorded a year earlier.
Friday’s USDA Update Comes Into Focus
Friday’s USDA production and balance-sheet update is becoming the next major catalyst. Current crop ratings point to some downside risk for US corn and soybean production relative to existing USDA forecasts, while Tuesday’s early strength shows the market beginning to price in slower harvest progress and weaker crop conditions.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up $0.07 at $6.99/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up $0.09 at $7.51/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up $0.05 1/2 at $7.14/bu. Slow US winter wheat planting and lower year-on-year export flows from both the US and Russia are providing support.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up $0.04 1/2 at $5.01 3/4/bu. Support is at $4.88, with near-term resistance at the 50-day moving average of $5.08. Weaker crop ratings and the slow harvest pace support prices, while dry Midwest weather should help fieldwork recover.
Soybean Futures
Nov ’26 soybeans are up $0.09 at $12.89 3/4/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $5 at $352.10, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 13 points at 69.22. Harvest delays, softer crop ratings and fresh export demand support beans and meal, while lower crude oil is weighing on soybean oil.