A much larger US corn crop and higher-than-expected ending stocks turned Friday sharply bearish, while record soybean yields and increased wheat stocks added pressure across the grain complex.
US grain markets came under heavy pressure on Friday, October 9, after the USDA production and WASDE updates delivered a significantly more bearish corn balance than expected. Corn fell close to its daily 30-cent limit after production and stocks were raised sharply, while soybeans and wheat moved around 15–25 cents lower as their own balances also came in less supportive than anticipated.
USDA Delivers a Major Bearish Surprise for Corn
Corn was the clear focus of the report. USDA raised 2026 production by 234 million bushels to 16.034 billion bushels, nearly 315 million bushels above expectations. Average US yield was increased to 181.2 bushels per acre, described in the source as the second highest on record.
The supply increase carried directly into the balance sheet. USDA raised 2026/27 ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion bushels, around 180 million bushels above expectations. Global corn stocks also increased by more than 8 MMT to 280 MMT. The average farm price was cut by $0.10 to $4.70/bu.
Demand was revised higher by 125 million bushels, including increases for feed, ethanol and exports, but this was not enough to absorb the larger production outlook. The immediate market reaction shows that the increase in supply and stocks clearly outweighed the stronger demand assumptions.
Record Soybean Yield Adds Pressure
Soybeans also received a larger-than-expected production estimate. USDA raised 2026 output by 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion bushels, while average yield increased to a record 53.1 bushels per acre.
Ending stocks rose by 5 million bushels to 315 million bushels, around 10 million above expectations. Demand was increased by 12 million bushels, including a 10-million-bushel increase in exports, while global stocks were little changed at 124 MMT. South American production and China’s import estimate of 115 MMT were left unchanged.
The soybean figures were less bearish than corn, but the record yield and higher stocks offered little support, particularly as the wider grain complex sold off following the corn surprise.
Wheat Stocks Rise as US Exports Are Cut
The wheat update was also slightly bearish. USDA raised 2026/27 US ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million bushels, around 20 million bushels above expectations. US wheat exports were reduced by 25 million bushels, while imports were raised by 5 million.
The global balance was more mixed. World wheat stocks were little changed at 276 MMT, slightly below expectations, while Russian exports were reduced by 3 MMT to 40 MMT. Argentina and Canada each received a 0.5 MMT increase in exports, partly offsetting the Russian reduction.
Weak Export Sales Add to the Defensive Tone
The USDA report arrived against an already soft export backdrop. Weekly US corn sales of 769,468 MT were 65.9% below the same week last year, while soybean sales of 549,377 MT were the lowest of the young marketing year and 40.25% below last year. Wheat performed better at 451,562 MT, the second-largest weekly total of the marketing year, although still only around half the year-ago volume.
Mostly favorable harvest weather across the central and western US also continues to encourage crop movement, adding another seasonal source of pressure as larger production estimates enter the market.
Wheat Futures
Before the USDA release, Dec ’26 Chicago wheat was unchanged at $6.83 1/4/bu, Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat was down 1/4 cent at $7.36/bu and Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents at $7.04 1/2/bu. Following the report, wheat was trading around 15–25 cents lower, pressured by higher US ending stocks and the cut to US exports. The source does not provide an exact post-report futures price.
Corn Futures
Before the report, Dec ’26 corn was unchanged at $5.00 1/4/bu, with support at $4.88 and resistance at $5.09 3/4. After USDA raised production to 16.034 billion bushels and ending stocks to 1.849 billion, corn fell close to its 30-cent daily limit. The source does not provide an exact post-report price.
Soybean Futures
Before the USDA update, Nov ’26 soybeans were up $0.05 1/2 at $12.93/bu, while Dec ’26 soybean meal was up $2.10 at $359.70 and Dec ’26 soybean oil was down 10 points at 67.82. After the report, soybeans were trading around 15–25 cents lower, with the record 53.1-bushel yield and higher-than-expected ending stocks adding pressure alongside the sharp corn selloff. The source does not provide an exact post-report soybean quote.