Feed grains open firmer as US harvest delays offer support, while sharply lower energy prices, heavy speculative positioning and comfortable South American planting conditions limit the upside across the grain complex.
US agricultural markets begin Monday, November 2, with mixed trade. Corn is leading the recovery after testing a four-month low, wheat is modestly higher across all three classes, while soybeans are little changed. The broader tone remains cautious: crude oil is sharply lower, South American planting is progressing well, US export performance remains uneven and managed money continues to reduce exposure across corn, soybeans and wheat.
Corn Leads the Early Recovery
Dec ’26 corn is up 3 1/4 cents at $4.51/bu, rebounding after trading to a four-month low. The move provides some short-term relief after December futures lost 8 1/4 cents last week and 53 cents during October.
The rebound comes after a substantial reduction in speculative exposure. Friday’s CFTC data showed money managers sold just over 90,000 contracts, cutting their net long position to approximately 56,000 contracts, the smallest in four months. The combination of long liquidation and new short interest has reduced the bullish speculative cushion that had supported the market earlier in the autumn.
The broader trend remains fragile, however. US corn export commitments for 2026/27 stand at 23.496 MMT, down 34% from last year. That represents only 28% of USDA’s export projection, well behind the five-year average pace of 39%. Until demand improves or South American weather becomes more threatening, the underlying directional bias remains defensive.
US Harvest Could Slow After Weekend Rain
Widespread precipitation across the Midwest over the weekend and additional showers forecast this week are expected to slow the remaining US harvest.
The current outlook calls for broad rainfall across the nation’s midsection, while the second week of the forecast turns warmer and drier. The slowdown may temporarily reduce harvest pressure, particularly for corn, but the crop is already well advanced. US corn harvest is expected to have reached around 75%, while soybean harvest is estimated near 90%.
The weather therefore offers some nearby support through slower fieldwork, but not enough at this stage to materially change the overall supply outlook.
EU Corn Production Is Cut Again
The European Commission lowered EU corn production by another 1.3 MMT to 47 MMT, while leaving the import forecast unchanged at 25 MMT.
The revised production figure is below USDA’s 48 MMT estimate, while the Commission’s import forecast remains above USDA’s 23.5 MMT projection.
The cut provides some underlying support to the international corn balance, particularly for exporters supplying Europe, but has not yet been enough to offset the weak US export pace and favorable South American crop development.
South American Corn Planting Remains Comfortable
Argentina and Brazil continue to make solid planting progress.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine corn planting at 47.3% complete, well above the average pace near 33%. In Brazil, AgRural estimates first-crop corn planting at 63%, ahead of the 59% pace from last year.
Weekend rains were heaviest in east-central Brazil and west-central Argentina, while this week’s precipitation is expected to favor southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. West-central Brazil is expected to remain mostly dry in the near term, although rain prospects improve in the second week of the outlook.
For corn, this remains a relatively comfortable South American weather setup and limits the need for a substantial weather premium.
Soybeans Struggle to Build Momentum
Jan ’27 soybeans are steady at $12.34 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.20 at $325.80, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 56 points at 65.34.
Soybean futures begin the week without clear momentum after November futures lost 34 1/4 cents last week and 70 3/4 cents during October.
Support for Jan ’27 soybeans is identified at $12.26 1/2, last week’s low, while resistance stands at the 100-day moving average at $12.48 1/2. The market remains caught between strong export commitments and continued speculative liquidation.
Fund Liquidation Continues Across the Soybean Complex
Managed money was a net seller of approximately 70,000 contracts across the soybean complex, reducing the combined long position to 411,500 contracts, the lowest in two months.
Soybean crush margins also weakened further, slipping another $0.03 to $2.14/bu, the lowest level in nine months.
The position remains historically substantial, but the direction of travel is important. Continued reductions in speculative length can cap rallies even when physical demand remains strong.
Weekly soybean export commitments stand at 28.778 MMT, 80% above the same point last year. That equals 62% of USDA’s export projection, ahead of last year’s 39% pace and the five-year average of 51%.
China Remains the Key Soybean Demand Driver
Estimated Chinese purchases are approaching 19 MMT, keeping China at the centre of the soybean demand story.
Sinograin is expected to auction another approximately 400,000 MT of soybeans on Tuesday. Its previous auction sold just 172,000 MT, roughly one-third of the volume offered.
The market will therefore continue to balance strong external demand against large speculative length, weakening crush margins and fast South American planting progress.
Brazilian Soybean Planting Accelerates
Brazilian soybean planting is well advanced.
The national crop is estimated at 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% pace. Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest producing state, reached 89% planted as of Friday, compared with 76% last year and a five-year average of 78.5%.
The rapid pace reduces planting-risk concerns and keeps the focus on weather through the establishment phase.
Argentina’s soybean planting is estimated at 23.3%, close to average for this early stage of the season.
Crush Data Becomes the Next Soybean Catalyst
The September Census crush report is due after Monday’s close.
Crush is expected at 201 million bushels, down just over 4% from August and below the 205 million bushels processed in September 2025.
Soybean oil stocks are expected to decline to 1.534 billion pounds, down nearly 10% from August and well below the 1.747 billion pounds recorded in September 2025.
A weaker crush figure would reinforce the recent deterioration in processing margins, while tighter oil stocks would provide a contrasting supportive factor for soybean oil.
Wheat Firms as Fund Shorts Reach Multi-Month Highs
Wheat is modestly higher across all three classes.
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up 2 1/2 cents at $6.06/bu, Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up 4 3/4 cents at $6.49/bu, and Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up 1 1/4 cents at $6.25/bu.
The recovery comes after a weak previous week in which December Chicago lost 21 1/2 cents, Kansas City fell 20 1/4 cents and Minneapolis declined 17 3/4 cents.
Managed money sold approximately 40,000 contracts combined across the three wheat classes, expanding the aggregate short position to 80,500 contracts, the largest in eight months. The Chicago short alone has increased to roughly 75,000 contracts, its largest in five months.
That positioning leaves wheat especially sensitive to any fresh bullish catalyst.
Chinese Interest Could Trigger a Larger Wheat Reaction
Wheat prices remain highly sensitive to any indication of Chinese buying.
US export commitments stand at 11.626 MMT, down 29% from last year and equal to 57% of USDA’s projection, behind the five-year average pace of 65%.
The weak overall pace explains why the market continues to search for stronger demand signals. With speculative shorts now elevated, confirmed Chinese business could have an amplified effect on prices, although no new transaction is supplied in the current outlook.
Russian Exports and EU Supply Cap Wheat’s Upside
IKAR reports Russian wheat export prices at Baltic Sea ports ended last week at $260/MT, down $4 from the prior week.
IKAR also raised its October export forecast to slightly above 3 MMT and indicated November exports could be somewhat higher.
At the same time, the European Commission lowered EU wheat production by another 0.5 MMT to 123.7 MMT. France’s crop was 62% planted as of October 26, behind last year’s 67% pace, while Argentina’s wheat planting was estimated at 6.7%, ahead of average for the early stage.
The combination is mixed: lower EU production provides support, but cheaper Russian export wheat and the prospect of stronger Russian shipments continue to restrain the upside.
Energy Markets Turn Sharply Lower
Energy prices are a major macro headwind at the start of the week.
Spot WTI crude oil is down $4.45/barrel at $99.65, while spot RBOB gasoline is down $0.16/gallon and heating oil is down $0.17.
The US dollar is moderately lower and US equity markets are higher.
For agricultural markets, the energy selloff is particularly relevant for corn through ethanol economics and for soybean oil through the broader vegetable-oil and biofuel complex. The weaker dollar offers some offsetting support to US export competitiveness.
Wheat Futures
Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is up 2 1/2 cents at $6.06/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is up 4 3/4 cents at $6.49/bu, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis wheat is up 1 1/4 cents at $6.25/bu. Heavy speculative short positioning creates potential for sharper reactions to fresh demand news, but weak cumulative US exports, cheaper Russian wheat and expectations for stronger Russian shipments continue to limit the upside.
Corn Futures
Dec ’26 corn is up 3 1/4 cents at $4.51/bu, rebounding after a four-month low. Harvest delays and the EU production cut provide support, but US export commitments remain 34% below last year and rapid planting in Argentina and Brazil keeps South American supply risk contained.
Soybean Futures
Jan ’27 soybeans are steady at $12.34 1/2/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is up $1.20 at $325.80, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 56 points at 65.34. Support for Jan beans is at $12.26 1/2 and resistance at the 100-day moving average at $12.48 1/2. Strong export commitments and Chinese demand remain supportive, but continued fund liquidation, weaker crush margins and rapid Brazilian planting cap the recovery.