Indian Ministry of Agriculture reported that wheat yield in the country has been 92.29 mln tons so far in the season. Wheat beginning stocks are 14.5 mln tons, according to FCI. Traders report that import has reached 5.5 mln tons. Thus the total amount of wheat in the country is 122.2 mln tons.

Wheat stocks in India on March 31, 2017 are projected at 8 – 10 mln tons. In case stocks are at the upper edge of the forecast (10 mln tons), yearly wheat consumption in India will rate at the staggering 102 mln tons. Wheat consumption in the country has been between 91 and 92 mln tons for the past few years.

The wheat yield forecast is the weakest link in the analysis. Many analysts believe that yield is practically below 90 mln tons with USDA projecting 86 mln tons. Thus the new consumption calculations will be at 95.71 mln tons.