On Thursday crop prices in Chicago fell as the lead was soybeans. In Paris,  prices also rose as here in leading the decline were oilseed crops – rapeseed.

The EUR / USD currency pair remained stable at 1.0569. Light oil rose to 54.34 USD / barrel.

American Petroleum Institute report on Wednesday showed that US reserves dropped by 884 thousand barrels to 512.7 million barrels in the week which ended on February 17. Analysts had expected a growth of 3.5 mln. barrels.

The Swiss company Glencore returned to profit after the price increase of raw materials, which is a remarkable recovery for the mining giant which reported a loss of billions of dollars a year earlier.

Soybean price in Chicago dropped yesterday in view of the large soybean areas projected in the US in 2017. USDA predicts that they will reach 88.0 million acres. With a view of a yield of 48.5 bushels/acre, the harvest will be 115.5 mln tons. Soybean areas are at the record level of 0.4 million acres above market expectations. The forecast for soybean areas is high, because soybean price has increasesd considerably in recent weeks. Meanwhile soybean markets in China remained weak, which also affected soybean trade yesterday.

USDA predicted that wheat areas in the US will be 46.0 million acres in 2017 with market expectations of 46.85 mln acres.

USDA projected 90 million acres of corn areas in the USA in 2017, which is 4.3% less than 2016 and 1 million acres below market expectations.

Weather conditions in South America are entirely positive. In northern Brazil, it will remain quite humid until the end of the month. About 15% of fields in Argentina are experiencing excessive moisture and as many have been hit by drought. However, problems are few looking at the full picture.

Argentinian Ministry of Agriculture estimates new wheat crop in the country of 18.3 mln tons with export of 11.0 - 11.5 mln tons. The increase is significant given the January forecast for harvest of 17.0 mln tons.

Corn yield is expected at the level of 40 mln tons.

Since the beginning of the season, wheat export from the EU has reached 15.8 mln tons, 11% lower than the previous year.

Last week ethanol production in the USA was 1.03 million barrels a day, which is a 6,000-barrel-per-day decrease on the previous week. Stocks rose by 169,000 barrels to 22.67 million barrels.

In January, China imported 160,000 tons of corn versus only 7,986 tons in January 2016 and 142,431 tons in December 2015. Barley import was 670 thousand tons (+ 84% versus January 2016 and 404,415 tons in December 2015). Sorghum import was 570 thousand tons (-38% and 200 thousand tons). Sorghum results are weak given the policy of restricting its import.

Yesterday IGC published its February forecast for the grain balance in the world during the current season.

Grain production worldwide increased to 2,102 mil tons (2,094 mln tons in the January forecast and 2,006 mln tons in 2015 - 2016). Grain stocks in the world will be 508 mln tons (507 and 475).

Wheat yield will be 752 mln tons (752 and 737) and wheat stocks in the world will be 236 mln tons (235 and 221).

Corn yield will be 1,049 mln tons (1,045 and 973) and stocks will be 224 mln tons (225 and 209).

Soybean yield will be 336 mln tons (334 and 315).

Overall, there is a bear position on the market and price decrease is expected. Markets, however, indicate otherwise.

On 22.02.2017 Egypt's state-owned GASC bought 360,000 tons of milling wheat from Russia and Ukraine to be delivered between 25.03 and 04.04.2017.

Transactions were as follows (IN DETAIL):

- Cargill 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at 196.5 USD/ton FOB + freight 11.25 USD/ton, a total of 207.75 USD/ton C & F.

- Louis Dreyfus 60,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat at 195.90 USD/ton FOB + freight 12.55 USD/ton, a total of 208.45 US /ton C & F and 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at 195.95 USD/ton + freight 11.25 USD/ton, a total of 208.2 USD/ton C & F.

- Olam 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at 197.00 USD/ton FOB + freight 11.25 USD/ton, a total of 208.25 USD/ton C & F.

- Midgulf 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at 198.25 USD/ton FOB + freight 10.85 US/ton, a total of 209.10 USD/ton C & F.

- ADM 60,000 tons of Russian wheat at 199.30 USD/ton FOB + freight 10.85 USD/ton, a total of 210.15 USD/ton C & F.

Between the beginning of the season and 23.02.2017, Ukraine exported 29.09 mln tons of grain according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the country. The export consisted of 13.346 mln tons of wheat, 4.639 mln tons of barley 10.626 mln tons of corn and 158,000 tons of other cereals. The export of all types of flour has reached 240,100 tons.

Soybean price – Soybean futures in Chicago fell by 1 - 1.5 cents/bushel yesterday. Export sales of soybeans from the US are expected at 550 – 850,000 tons from the current harvest and 100 - 300 thousand tons from the new yield. Soybean meal sales will be 100 – 300,000 tons with soybean oil sales 5 – 25,000 tons.

Corn price – Yesterday, corn futures in Chicago fell by 5.5 cents/bushel. Export sales of corn from the United States will be 800 – 1,100,000 tons of the current harvest + 300 - 500 thousand tons of the new yield.

Wheat price – Wheat futures in Chicago fell by 2.25 – 3.25 cents/bushel yesterday. Export sales of wheat from the US will be 350 – 550,000 tons + 0 – 50,000 tons.