Wheat contracts in Chicago for September 2025 opened Wednesday at $5.06¾ per bushel, following a downward trend from Tuesday’s close at $5.08¼. The wheat complex remains under pressure across all three major U.S. exchanges. Kansas City HRW wheat led the losses on Tuesday, dropping 12 to 12½ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat also declined by 2 to 4 cents. Market sentiment continues to reflect pressure from weak European exports and subdued global demand. June U.S. wheat exports reached 1.719 million metric tons—a four-year high—but fell more than 20% from May. Meanwhile, a South Korean importer secured 60,000 metric tons of wheat overnight, but that has done little to lift the bearish mood. EU soft wheat exports also remain notably behind last year’s pace.

Corn futures opened Wednesday at $3.79¾ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, following a close of $3.81½ on Tuesday. Prices declined by 4 to 5½ cents in the previous session and remain under selling pressure. While the USDA confirmed a private export sale of 128,000 metric tons of new crop corn to unknown destinations, and June exports hit a near-record 6.747 MMT, market enthusiasm is tempered by rising competition. Brazil’s bumper second corn crop and weak Chinese demand have dragged down export prospects. South Korea’s recent 68,000 MT purchase was well below the 140,000 MT tendered, further signaling sluggish demand. At the same time, distillers’ exports hit a five-year low, and ethanol exports, although strong year-on-year, dipped from May.

Soybeans started Wednesday’s trading at $9.75½ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, slightly up from Tuesday’s close of $9.71½. The complex is seeing mild support midweek after modest losses of 3 to 4 cents yesterday. June soybean exports rose by over 12% year-on-year to 1.501 MMT, though they fell nearly 6% month-on-month. Soybean meal exports hit a June record of 1.34 MMT, but soyoil shipments dropped to an eight-month low. Crop ratings dipped to 69% good-to-excellent, with noticeable declines in Illinois, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa. Despite these weaker fundamentals, a soft recovery is being supported by some improvements in Midwest weather and broader oilseed sentiment, though crude oil pressure continues to weigh on the soy complex.

Latvia’s government declared a state of emergency in the agriculture sector following severe flooding that devastated this year’s harvest. The damage has forced officials to predict either no usable crop or yields fit only for animal feed. This move allows farmers to seek tax and loan relief until November 4, and has fueled concerns about regional supply tightness in the Baltic grain trade.

Ukraine announced the reopening of the Bystre Canal on the Danube after a closure caused by an explosion in late July. The move is expected to cut shipping costs and improve freight flow, particularly as Ukrainian exporters continue to seek alternatives to Black Sea routes. While traffic had shifted to the Romanian Sulina channel during the closure, higher costs and tighter margins pushed for a rapid reopening. The canal now allows vessels with drafts up to 4.5 meters, which will benefit Danube-origin shipments.

In Brazil, Safras & Mercado reported that 78.4% of the 2024/25 soybean crop has already been sold, slightly below last year’s 82.2%. The pace of 2025/26 forward sales is even slower at 16.8%, well under the five-year average. These figures reflect subdued market confidence and tighter financing conditions. Despite the slow forward selling, Brazil’s soybean production is projected to hit 171.93 million tons in 2024/25, and rising fuel demand is supporting ethanol sector investments tied to corn and soybean processing.

In a major development, Brazil’s Grupo Potencial announced a $392 million investment in a corn ethanol plant in Paraná state. The facility is expected to consume 1.2 million metric tons of corn annually—6% of the state’s total production. This investment is part of a broader plan to develop the world’s largest biofuels complex, including biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel production. Construction is set to begin in 2026, with the complex also planning pipeline infrastructure to streamline fuel distribution across the region.

Russia’s wheat production forecast for 2025/26 has been revised upward to 84 million tons by LSEG analysts, based on satellite data and favorable weather patterns. The boost comes from strong yields in the Volga and Central districts and elevated vegetation density in spring wheat regions. Cooler, wetter forecasts for the drought-affected southern areas may further improve output potential. This raises expectations for continued Russian competitiveness in the global wheat market.

China has extended its investigation into beef imports until November, impacting key exporters such as Brazil, Argentina, and Australia. While the probe stems from domestic oversupply and slowing consumer demand, it has broader implications for global protein markets and feed demand, particularly soymeal. Meanwhile, Bunge has sold another Argentine soybean meal shipment to China, signaling Beijing’s strategic diversification away from U.S. supplies amid lingering trade tensions.

U.S. producer sentiment dipped in July, according to the Purdue University/CME Group index, falling to 135 from 146 in June. Lower current income expectations and more cautious future outlooks weighed on farmer confidence. The index reflects growing concerns about income stability amid fluctuating commodity prices and export competition.

Finally, global weather patterns continue to influence trade sentiment. Canadian Prairies are experiencing beneficial rainfall, while the U.S. Midwest enters a warmer, yet not extreme, phase. The Northern Plains and parts of the Central and Southern Plains are expected to receive scattered showers through the week. Argentina remains mostly dry, and Brazil is seeing localized harvest delays due to southern rains. The Black Sea region is still experiencing dryness, especially impacting corn development, while rising tropical storm activity in the Atlantic poses a potential threat to U.S. logistics later this week.