On Thursday, Chicago's crop prices rose moderately. In Paris all prices dropped a little.

EUR / USD index dropped to 1.0888. WTI crude oil dropped to 48.88 USD / barrel.

The US will not exit the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA. This is what US President Donald Trump said in a telephone conversation with the leaders of Canada and Mexico. At present Trump will not stop the operation of NAFTA, the White House said. Trump, Mexican President Enrique Penya Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudo "have agreed to proceed quickly, according to the necessary internal rules, to renegotiate the trade agreement for the benefit of the three countries," the message said.The White House emphasizes that the President has held "a pleasant and productive conversation." "I am honored to modernize NAFTA through negotiations, and I believe the final result will make these three countries stronger and better," Trump adds. The Mexican Peso and the Canadian Dollar raised at the forex markets after the White House announcement. Peso added 1.1% and recovered much of the yesterday's drops.The Canadian dollar rises by 0.6%, interrupting a four-day negative series. Trumpe's advisers have been debating for a while how aggressively they can re-negotiate NAFTA. The hardliners insist that the US should quit as quickly as possible the agreement even before the first 100 days of the US president, while others insist on a softer approach.

The US administration said the US would not quit the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA. This reduces the fears that the US has problems with its trading partners.

Heavy rainfall is expected in the United States in the weekend. Maybe there will be floods. The sowing of corn and soybean will stop again, and the big moisture is also causing problems for the wheat.

In the week 14 - 20 April export sales of US corn of old harvest were 987,900 tonnes, which is above the expectations of the market. Soybean sales are even more impressive - 808,100 tonnes of current harvest at forecasted 250,000-450,000 tonnes. It is noteworthy that supplies from South America are very strong, and at the same time the US export window is not closed, but even too opened based on the results. Since the beginning of the season the United States has exported a record high of 49.25 million tonnes of soybean.

Export sales of wheat proved to be extremely weak. For the current crop after the many failures of old purchases, the weekly result is only 61,700 tonnes. Sales of wheat of the new crop are also weak - 305 400 tonnes. The abundant rainfall in the recent weeks has increased the potential for diseases and lower quality of the wheat of the new crop. On the other hand, temperatures are low and this stops the disease but creates serious risks for damage to the crops.

In Europe there are no changes in the weather situation - dry weather in Western Europe and warming in the Black Sea region.

Yesterday, IGC announced its April report. Keys:

1. Common grain crops - The production of grain in the world in 2017 - 2018 will be 2 054 million tonnes at 2 050 million tonnes in the March forecast and 2 111 million tonnes in 2016-2017. The crops during the current season will be record high. Consumption of grain in the world will be 2 079 million tonnes (2 079 and 2 111) and ending stocks - 491 million tonnes (484 and 516).

2. Wheat - the yield will be 736 million tonnes (735 and 735), consumption 738 million tonnes (740 and 737) and the stocks 239 million tonnes (234 and 240).

3. Corn - The yield will be 1 026 million tonnes (1 024 and 1 059), consumption 1 046 million tonnes (1 044 and 1 041) and stocks 207 million tonnes (205 and 227).

4. Soybean - the harvest will be 348 million tons (345 and 345), consumption 350 million tons (347 and 337) and stocks 38 million tons (35 and 40).

Generally, only corn covers the ranges for a relatively tight market. Wheat obviously does not want to lower its stocks.

Corn price – Yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose by 2.25 - 3.25 cents / bushel. In the week 14 - 20 April, export sales of corn of the old crops from the United States were 987,900 tonnes (+ 30.62% more than the previous week and 54.26% more than the previous year) + 11,100 tonnes of new crops. Exports of corn during the week were 1 374 300 tonnes. The largest buyers were Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Mexico. Argentina's corn harvest is advancing with + 3.2% of the areas for the last week to a total of 25.8%.

Soybean price – Yesterday soybean futures in Chicago decreased a little and remained stable. Export sales of soybean were 808 100 tonnes + 72 300 tonnes. Exports during the week reached 782,100 tonnes. The biggest buyers were China, Germany and Egypt. Sales of soybean meal were 112,000 tonnes + 1,400 tonnes and soybean oil had a reduction in sales of 2,000 tonnes - big old contracts were denied. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 10.9 million tonnes in April, which will be a record high. Soybean in Argentina is harvested on 32.3% of the area at 16.3% for the last week.

Wheat price – Yesterdat the wheat futures in Chicago rose. Temperatures in some parts of the United States fall overnight to negative values. Exports of wheat from the United States are at 61 700 tonnes + 305 400 tonnes (-85.1% and -82.5%). Exports reached 612 700 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Japan, Yemen and China.

I note again that despite of the record high exports of South American crops, US exports continue to be strong for this time of the season. Apparently production is on the level which can satisfy the demand. I expect market shocks in 2017 based on the fact that the last crops won’t be repeated.