EUR / USD indexr rose to 1.1463. WTI crude oil dropped to 45.12 USD / barrel.
Oil rose on Tuesday, backed by the strong prospects for demand in the coming weeks. However market conditions remain weak overall against the backdrop of continuing saturation, which has led several banks to lower their price forecasts. According to traders, the rise in prices is partly due to the stronger demand expected in the coming weeks.

Chicago crop prices rose yesterday. Soybeans futures have made their longest run since 2012 until now. USDA data about the condition of crops showed bigger drops than expected. Forecasts for higher rainfall in the US corn belt - from Iowa to Ohio - have cut back on profits. It's already raining in Iowa and rainfall has passed to Illinois. The market accepts the new moisture as a temporary phenomenon and it is not massive. The concerns about the crop remain. By the end of next week, corn crops will be put to new testing.

USDA is expected to lower its forecast for corn and soybeans yields in the US today, but how much? Analysts say the average yield of corn will be well below the current USDA forecast of 170.7 bushels / acre. Some analysts expect 165 bushels / acre. It is expected that the damage caused to the spring wheat will be high and the yield will be 29.3 bushels / acre at 47.2 bushels / acre last year. This is why the wheat market will so sharply rise. A yield of 29.3 bushels / acre is catastrophically low.

The USDA believes that 62% of the soybeans crops are in good and excellent condition. For the estimates as catastrophic 2012, this indicator was 20 points lower. For the corn, this estimate was 65%. Excluding 2012, this is the lowest level of the indicator for the past 9 years. The average estimate for this period of the year is 73%. The conditions are not expected to improve significantly over the next 10 days. Then how can we expect a high corn yield of over 170 bushels / acre - at this condition of the crop ??? The hot and hot weather in the northern states of the United States and Canada is descending to the south and can significantly affect corn yields in the United States. In the absence of rainfall in the United States over the next 2 weeks, yields of corn will drop to 160 bushels / acre.

We can expect the USDA report and its data, but they will not accurately reflect the outlook for the year, given the changing factors. I expect the report to have high yields for all crops that will not be achieved in the autumn - for the northern hemisphere.
Conab raised its forecast for the corn crop in Brazil during the season from 93.83 million tonnes to 96 million tonnes. The reason for the correction is the high yields of the second corn crop. The 96 million tonnes were predicted by other analysts, but apparently Conab did so late.

In Australia, analysts expect wheat crops to drop below 20 million tonnes. Still, this has not happened and there is a potential for a bigger crop. But if it does not rain in the next 2-3 weeks 20 million tonnes will be just a dream.

Wheat price– yesterday wheat futures rose in most Chicago contracts. Analysts expect the USDA to cut the ending stocks of wheat in the US for 2017-2018 with 1.31 million tonnes to 23.8 million tonnes and 3.83 million tonnes in the world. Japan is looking to buy 93,765 tonnes of wheat from the United States and Australia.

Soybeans price – yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 4.5 - 5.25 cents / bushel. The USDA is expected to reduce the US soybean stocks to 2016-2017. with 0.54 million tonnes, and for 2017 - 2018 with 0.6 million tonnes due to the smaller areas. The USDA attache in Brazil expects the soybeans crop to be 113.6 million tonnes (113.93) in the country during the current season, and in 2017 -2018 - 105 million tonnes.

Цена царевица – yesterday corn futures in Chicago remained stable. Conab has increased its forecast for corn cropin Brazil by 2.19 million tonnes to 96.03 million tonnes. Today the USDA is expected to increase its estimate by 0.6 million tonnes to 97.6 million tonnes. The USDA is expected to raise its forecast for the global stocks of corn by 1 million tonnes to 195.33 million tonnes.