Crop Market Recap – Wheat, Corn & Soybeans

Wheat

Chicago wheat closed Thursday’s session with mild gains. The September 2025 contract rose by 1½ cents, finishing at $5.42¾ per bushel. Market sentiment was shaped by a mix of easing European supply concerns and tightening Black Sea availability. FranceAgriMer reaffirmed soft wheat ending stocks at a high 3.87 MMT, while Argentina's Rosario Exchange revised its wheat harvest estimate slightly downward. Additionally, Algeria’s recent 1 million-ton wheat tender, likely sourced from Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria, signaled growing demand for Black Sea-origin supplies. Traders are keeping a close watch on Russia, where SovEcon marginally lifted its output projection, despite continued yield issues in southern regions.

Corn

Corn posted another strong finish Thursday, ending at $4.07¾ per bushel, up 2½ cents on the day. The USDA’s weekly export report drove bullish momentum, showing old crop corn sales at 594,000 tons—well above expectations. Ethanol data further reinforced upward movement, with daily production steady at 1.087 million barrels and stocks declining to 23.635 million barrels. Brazil’s corn production outlook was nudged upward to 131.2 MMT thanks to favorable weather in Safrinha areas, despite slow harvest progress. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s corn crop is nearing collapse due to severe drought and heat, further reducing regional availability.

Soybeans

Soybeans closed sharply higher on Thursday, with the front-month contract jumping by 19¼ cents to $10.32¾ per bushel. Momentum was fueled by a combination of strong export demand, limited global stocks, and supportive domestic data. The USDA confirmed a private sale of 120,000 MT for 2025/26 delivery, and the June crush reached a new high of 185.709 million bushels. Prices for soymeal and soyoil followed suit, with soymeal up $2.20/ton and soyoil gaining 20–24 points. Importantly, Chinese soybean import estimates for July climbed to 10.5 MMT, further confirming robust global demand.

Key Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

President Trump’s announcement that Coca-Cola will shift from high-fructose corn syrup to cane sugar for U.S. products sent ripples through corn markets. While symbolic in the short term, the move suggests potential long-term shifts in sweetener demand and a changing input landscape.

The wheat market saw a bullish tilt after FranceAgriMer projected a 38% year-over-year increase in French wheat exports to 14.32 MMT. Exports outside the EU are set to more than double, reaching 7.5 MMT. This boosts France's role in competitive wheat markets across North Africa and Asia.

SovEcon increased Russia’s wheat forecast to 83.6 MMT based on improved central regional performance, despite ongoing drought impacts in the south. Barley estimates also rose to 18 MMT, though corn projections held steady at 14.3 MMT.

Australia and China moved closer to a breakthrough in canola trade, potentially resuming exports after years of suspension. Five test shipments totaling up to 250,000 tons are planned. This could shift rapeseed trade dynamics, especially amid Canada-China tensions.

In South America, Brazil’s corn estimate was confirmed at 131.2 MMT, and Argentina’s soybean forecast was revised up to 49.5 MMT. These developments point to a continued recovery for the region’s key crops following past weather disruptions.

The U.S. soybean crop remains robust, with 70% rated good-to-excellent, the strongest performance in five years. Weather across the Midwest has remained largely favorable, supporting strong yield potential even as August weather risks loom.

Indonesia’s biodiesel push is intensifying, with consumption already reaching 48% of its 2025 target. A transition to the B50 mandate is under consideration, which would increase palm oil demand significantly. June palm oil exports surged 30.5% MoM.

Weather continues to shape the global picture. While the U.S. Northern Plains and Midwest benefit from steady rainfall, Bulgaria faces an escalating drought crisis, and heavy rains are forecasted for Ukraine and parts of Central Russia, potentially impacting grain quality late in the season.