Crop Market Recap – Wheat, Corn & Soybeans – Thursday, July 17, 2025

Wheat

Chicago wheat started Wednesday’s trading at $5.38 per bushel for the September 2025 contract and managed to push slightly higher to close at $5.41¼, gaining 3¼ cents on the day. The market continues to experience short-term volatility, driven by diverging fundamentals. FranceAgriMer released updated projections estimating soft wheat ending stocks at 3.87 MMT, significantly higher than last year’s 2.33 MMT, easing supply worries in Europe. Meanwhile, Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its estimate for the upcoming wheat harvest to 20 MMT, down from 20.7 MMT a year earlier. Russian wheat remains in focus too, with SovEcon raising its national output forecast to 83.6 MMT, up from 83 MMT, though southern regions like Rostov and Krasnodar are underperforming. Global sentiment remains cautious ahead of USDA's weekly export data.

Corn

Corn began the day at $4.04½ and extended its upward momentum, closing at $4.05¼, marking a 4-cent gain. Strong ethanol data supported the price action, with daily production rising to 1.087 million barrels/day and stocks falling to 23.635 million barrels. Although ethanol exports declined slightly, domestic corn demand remains robust. Brazilian production estimates for 2024/25 were revised slightly upward to 131.2 MMT, driven by favorable growing conditions in the Safrinha crop areas despite harvest delays. In the U.S., all eyes are on today’s USDA export data, with forecasts suggesting a wide range of old and new crop bookings between 0.5–2 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened trading Wednesday at $9.95 and surged by 18½ cents, closing at $10.13½, on the back of solid demand and bullish export activity. A notable sale of 120,000 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year to unknown destinations was announced by the USDA. Prices were further supported by gains in soymeal (+$2.20/ton) and soyoil (+20–24 points). Despite a slow daily crush pace, June soybean crushing hit a record high of 185.709 million bushels, boosting sentiment. Chinese July import estimates increased to 10.5 MMT, well above last year’s levels, pointing to strong global appetite. U.S. production remains pegged at 118 MMT, supported by favorable July weather and strong crop conditions.

Key Global Developments Impacting Today’s Grain Markets

President Trump announced that Coca-Cola will shift to using cane sugar in U.S. beverages instead of high-fructose corn syrup. While symbolic, this move has implications for long-term corn sweetener demand and signals potential market shifts in the sugar vs. corn input balance in the U.S.

French wheat exports are forecasted to rise 38% YoY to 14.32 MMT, according to FranceAgriMer. Of particular note, exports outside the EU are projected to more than double to 7.5 MMT, signaling stronger French competition in global wheat markets, especially in North Africa and Asia.

In Russia, SovEcon adjusted its wheat crop forecast upward based on improved conditions in the Central region, now seen at 83.6 MMT. The barley outlook was also raised to 18 MMT, while corn remained unchanged at 14.3 MMT.

Australia and China are nearing a landmark agreement that would resume canola trade via five trial shipments totaling 150,000–250,000 tons, after a years-long freeze. If successful, this could shift global rapeseed dynamics, especially amid Canada’s anti-dumping tensions with China.

In South America, Brazil’s corn output was revised to 131.2 MMT, despite slow Safrinha harvesting. Argentina’s soybean forecast also rose to 49.5 MMT, up from 48.5 MMT, highlighting positive South American momentum for both key crops.

The U.S. soybean crop remains in excellent shape, with 70% rated good-to-excellent—the best in at least five years. Planted acreage remains slightly below last season, but yield potential is strong amid favorable mid-season weather in key states like Iowa and Illinois.

Indonesia’s biodiesel program is rapidly expanding, with 2025 consumption already at 48% of its annual target. The government is testing a shift to the B50 mandate, increasing palm oil demand. Meanwhile, June exports of palm oil jumped by 30.5% MoM, with key buyers being India, China, and the EU.

Weather remains a critical watchpoint. The U.S. Northern Plains and Midwest are seeing beneficial rainfall, but August could bring hot and dry conditions, adding yield risk. In Southern Brazil, drought persists with deficits of up to 50 mm, while heavy rains are expected in parts of Ukraine and Central Russia, possibly impacting late-season harvest quality.