Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Tuesday at $5.36½ per bushel, down from the previous day’s close of $5.41½. U.S. wheat markets remain under pressure due to weak export performance and ongoing geopolitical developments. According to Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report, 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been harvested, slightly behind the five-year average. Spring wheat conditions showed modest improvement with 78% headed and 54% rated good-to-excellent. However, export inspections were lackluster, with just 438,533 tons shipped during the week ending July 10—a drop of nearly 30% year-over-year. Heightening global tensions, former President Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican wheat starting August 1 and further threatened secondary sanctions on Russia’s trade partners, intensifying uncertainty in global wheat flows.

Corn

Corn futures began Tuesday’s session at $3.95½ per bushel, down 4½ cents from Monday’s close of $4.00. Despite strong crop ratings—74% of corn is in good-to-excellent condition—the market is digesting weaker export inspection data and geopolitical risks. USDA data showed corn silking at 34%, with 7% in the dough stage. Weekly corn export shipments fell to 1.287 MMT, down 17.7% from the previous week. Mexico, Japan, and South Korea led as top importers. Meanwhile, NOAA forecasts predict widespread rains across the Corn Belt, providing near-term crop support. Nevertheless, harvest delays in Brazil, where only 40% of the second corn crop is harvested compared to 74% this time last year, and global policy uncertainties continue to weigh on sentiment.

Soybeans

August 2025 soybean futures opened Tuesday at $9.96½ per bushel, slipping from Monday’s close of $10.01. Although the USDA reported that 47% of the soybean crop is blooming and condition ratings rose to 70% good-to-excellent, weak export data added bearish pressure. Weekly export inspections plunged by 63.2% from the previous week to just 147,045 tons, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Rains expected across the Corn Belt may aid pod-setting crops, but broader global trade shifts complicate the outlook. Traders are also watching for updated NOPA data, expected to show a rise in June crush volumes to 185.19 mbu and soyoil stocks at around 1.374 billion lbs.

Key Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

Morocco will significantly increase U.S. hard wheat imports this season, driven by competitive pricing, a favorable dollar exchange rate, and duty-free access. The first 100,000-ton shipment is en route from Louisiana, marking a strategic shift for the North African grain importer after years away from the U.S. market.

In Russia, the IKAR consultancy cut its 2025 wheat output forecast to 84 MMT due to persistent drought in the south, particularly in Rostov—the top producing region—which may register its worst harvest since 2015. Wheat export estimates were also revised downward to 42 MMT, intensifying global supply concerns.

France's agriculture ministry forecast a strong rebound in soft wheat production at 32.6 MMT for 2025, a 27% increase over last year’s rain-damaged crop. Barley and rapeseed outputs are also expected to rise significantly, supported by better yields and expanded maize planting.

In Brazil, the wheat harvest forecast for 2025/26 has been cut to 7.81 MMT due to decreased planted area, even though productivity is expected to rise. Despite reduced domestic output, prices remain under pressure from international trends and a weakening dollar.

Argentina’s government raised biofuel prices again, affecting domestic corn and sugarcane-based ethanol as well as biodiesel. The policy move is part of efforts to support local producers amid inflationary pressure.

In China, Q2 pork production edged up 1.4% year-over-year, aided by improved farming efficiency. However, subdued demand and falling pig prices signal continued oversupply and pressured margins for producers, potentially shifting feed demand.

The USDA confirmed declining weekly U.S. grain export volumes across wheat, corn, and soybeans. Mexico continues to dominate as the top buyer, highlighting North America's interconnected trade flow as policy shifts loom.

Heavy rainfall persists in Argentina's Pampas region, offering short-term support for local crop development. Conversely, Southern Brazil remains dry, raising concerns for late-planted corn and wheat. Europe sees mixed weather—Eastern regions remain cool and wet, while Western areas suffer heat and drought, particularly impacting French and German crops during critical development stages.