Market Close Summary – Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Wheat

Wheat futures ended Wednesday with a mixed tone. While Chicago SRW wheat gained 3 ¼ cents to close at $5.41¼/bushel, Kansas City HRW saw fractional losses, and MPLS spring wheat slipped by 1 to 2 cents. Fresh momentum came from reports that Algeria may have purchased up to 1 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat for September–October delivery—traditionally supplied by France but increasingly sourced from Bulgaria and the Black Sea. FranceAgriMer also projected France’s soft wheat ending stocks at 3.87 MMT, well above last year’s 2.33 MMT, suggesting looser supply conditions. Additionally, Taiwan confirmed a U.S. wheat import of 89,650 MT, helping support sentiment despite U.S. harvest progress and improved crop conditions in the Northern Plains.

Corn

Corn posted further strength midweek, climbing 4 cents to settle at $4.05¼/bushel. The bullish tone was reinforced by a combination of rising ethanol production (up to 1.087 million barrels/day) and declining stocks (down 324,000 barrels to 23.635 million). Despite some dip in ethanol exports and refiner inputs, the domestic picture remained solid. The national cash corn price averaged $3.92¾, also up 4¼ cents. Trade is watching for Thursday’s USDA export data, with expectations for both old and new crop bookings in strong ranges. Meanwhile, July Brazilian corn export estimates increased to 4.6 MMT, up from 4.34 MMT last week.

Soybeans

Soybeans surged on Wednesday, with front-month contracts closing at $10.13½/bushel, up 18½ cents. The market reacted positively to a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia involving $4.5 billion in ag product purchases. Additionally, the USDA reported a private sale of 120,000 MT of 2025/26 soybeans to unknown destinations. Soyoil and soymeal prices also posted gains, with soyoil up 20–24 points and soymeal rising $2.20/ton. Despite slower daily crush rates, NOPA reported a record June soybean crush of 185.709 million bushels, surpassing analyst expectations. Soyoil stocks also dropped to a five-month low. Brazil’s July soybean export forecast increased to 12.19 MMT, up from 11.93 MMT.

Key Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

Brazil’s Beef Exports Disrupted by U.S. Tariffs

President Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian beef has caused chaos in Brazil’s cattle sector. Companies have frozen production and redirected shipments, with Minerva SA—heavily reliant on U.S. exports—reporting a major revenue impact. As Brazil is a top supplier of feed-consuming cattle, the disruption could reduce demand for corn and soy-based feed, sending ripple effects across grain markets.

Russia’s Wheat Harvest Lags Sharply

As of July 11, Russia had harvested only 11 MMT of wheat, a 56% drop compared to last year. Yields are suffering in drought-hit regions like Rostov and Krasnodar, putting pressure on global wheat supply and adding bullish pressure to futures.

Ukraine Corn Outlook Cut Amid Drought

Ukraine’s corn production forecast was lowered to 27.2 MMT, down 1.8%, due to persistent dryness and below-average NDVI values in key growing regions. Soil moisture is insufficient across much of central and eastern Ukraine, raising concerns for crop development despite upcoming moderate weather.

Ukraine Wheat Harvest Steady

Conversely, Ukraine’s wheat production forecast remains stable at 20.7 MMT, as dry but moderate conditions have allowed a rapid start to harvest, especially in southern oblasts like Odessa and Mykolaiv.

EU Soft Wheat Exports Plunge 78%

The EU exported just 246,000 tons of soft wheat since the 2025/26 season began on July 1, compared to 1.1 MMT a year earlier. Corn imports also dropped 81% YoY, and soybean imports declined to 340,597 tons. These figures point to slower intra-bloc and global grain flows, possibly tied to logistics or waning demand.

Egypt Launches New Grain Exchange Amid Import Shake-Up

Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, is launching a military-linked national commodity exchange to stabilize prices and guarantee supply. The move follows a sharp 57% drop in government wheat imports in H1 2025. The new system aims to improve procurement but has yet to fully engage private traders.

Kazakhstan Ups Wheat Outlook

Favorable weather and improved NDVI in major growing areas have boosted Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 wheat production estimate to 16.6 MMT, up 3.2% from the last update. This could ease some of the global supply strain caused by Russian and Ukrainian weather issues.

Weather Trends Signal Risk and Relief

Across the Northern Plains and Midwest, scattered storms and cooler weather are helping corn and soybean development, while parts of Canada and Europe remain too dry. Southeast Europe, Northeastern Europe, and Scandinavia are also seeing drier conditions that could hamper grain yields, particularly for wheat.