Time to sell

On Tuesday soybeans and corn prices in Chicago rose, and wheat went down. Variations however were moderate.In Paris the movements were minimal and diffused.

EUR / USD index rose to 1.1558.WTI crude oil rose to 46.40 USD / barrel.
Oil prices recorded slight downturns on Tuesday, remaining under pressure from the still high supply in OPEC and the United States. At the same time, decreases are limited due to signals for strong demand.

Yesterday was confirmed the more favorable weather forecast in the United States for the coming days. One of the largest corn producers in the US, Iowa, will be subjected to good rainfall (25 - 50 l / sq. m), which has already begun. Precipitation will be strong enough to provoke a response across the markets around the world. It can not be said that the fears for the corn and soybeans in the US have passed, but there is some relief.
The changes in weather condition in the US also have an impact on the forecasts for the corn yield. Now they should be within 160-167 bushels / acre.

USDA data for much less soybeans processing in the US in June remains a surprise for the markets. However, they will be calculated in the next forecasts for soybeans consumption, and hence in the prices. Probably USDA will drop by another 0.27 - 0.54 million tonnes of US soybeans consumption in 2016-2017.

There is also rain in some parts of North Dakota, but it did not significantly affect wheat prices. Analysts are confident that precipitation will not have a positive impact on the crops - they are too late. Overall the weather conditions in the US are slightly better than the previous week, but uncertainties remain about the future and how the current rainfall will affect crops.
The weakening of the US currency is the cause of increased demand for US production.

The worries  for the crops in Canada go on. However, the winter wheat market is under pressure as a result of relatively good supplies from the Black Sea region.
Yesterday, Egypt bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat - 120,000 tonnes from Romania, 120,000 tonnes from Russia and 60,000 tonnes from France. Compared to the previous auction, prices have risen to a minimum - by 2 - 3 USD / tonne.

Wheat prices in the Black Sea region remain stable, even at times slightly rising. So far, we have been watching closely what is happening in Russia and Ukraine. Another big player in the region is Romania. In 2017 its corn  crop will increase by 16.8% compared to last year to 10.39 million tonnes. Sunflower crop will grow by 12.8% compared to the previous year and that of rapeseed by 5.2%. Wheat crop will decrease by 2.4% and barley - by 9%. Generally very good production results in 2017.

Considering what is happening in the Black Sea region - the latest forecasts for the crops in Russia and Ukraine, the above-mentioned data for Romania, considering the tender in Egypt yesterday, where French wheat also fights for a deal, we can believe that the peak of prices has now been reached. And sales that are planned for the next 2 to 6 weeks can be done.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 185.04

 -0.81

Corn 12.2017

 153.77

 +1.02

Soybeans 11.2017

 368.02

 +1.54

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 364.75

 +1.54

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 09.2017

 172.25

 -0.25

Corn 08.2017

 168.00

 -0.25

Rapeseed 08.2017

 368.25

 +0.25

Rapeseed meal 09.2017

 188.00

 -1.00

 

Soybeans price – yesterday in Chicago soybeans prices rose 4.5 cents / bushel. In view of the latest rainfall, USDA is expected to increase its crop status estimates over the coming weeks.

Corn price – yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose by 2 to 3 cents / bushel. In the first two weeks of July corn exports from Brazil grew  by 65% over the previous year to 820,000 tonnes.

Wheat price – yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by 2 - 4 cents / bushel. The Russian Grain Union expects the wheat crop in the country to exceed 70 million tonnes and the total grain crop to be 115 - 118 million tonnes.