EUR/USD index rose to 1.1639. АWTI crude oil dropped to 46.38 USD/barrel.

Opec member countries and its partners from OPEC+,  participating in the oil reduction agreement expect the raw material market to be balanced in the first quarter of 2018. Depending on the achievement of the this goal will be decided whether the deal will be extended, commented Kuwaiti oil minister Esam al-Marzouk. Marzuck specified after today's meeting that the next ministerial meeting would be in September, and on technical level - on August 21st.

Yesterday, Chicago's crop prices declined under investors' confidence that precipitation in the weekends is out of expectations and temperatures are lower. Forecasts suggest that temperatures in the US corn belt will be relatively acceptable for the crop growing in the coming days. There are rainfall in some places, but not too much to change the market. An estimate of the average US corn yield of 160 bushels / acre and about 46 bushels / acre for soybeans seems so unbelievable.

Export demand for US corn appears to be problematic. The USDA reported an export sale of 135,000 tonnes of corn from the new crop to an unknown buyer. In this case, prices should collapse but so far they remain stable due to the drought in the corn belt. Weekly export data look less optimistic - 935,262 tonnes at 1.12 million tonnes a week earlier and 1.32 million tonnes a year earlier. Soybeans exports reached 596,920 tonnes (300,000 and 720,573). In the beginning of August, normal seasonal temperatures are expected without major increases. This will give optimism about  the development of the soybeans in the US.

During the weekend there was rainfall in the northern states of the United States. So part of the crops with spring wheat will improve in the coming days. Rainfall in the northern parts of the United States is expected over the next few days.
Some analysts immediately switched to a new record of US corn yield. The picture became very complex and quickly changing. There are many different paths that the market will go through in the coming weeks.

In June, 383,093 tonnes of corn was imported into China. Imports are rising in line with the significant rise in the domestic prices due to the drought. This month corn deliveries from Ukraine amounted to 287,593 tonnes and from the US 72,704 tonnes. China imported 7.69 million tonnes of soybeans (-6-7% versus May) in June. In the first half of the year, soybeans imports reached 44.8 million tonnes (+ 14.2%) and palm oil  - 217.306 tonnes (-8.5%).

In the EU, MARS lowered the forecast for corn yields due to the hot and dry weather in many places.

Wheat price – Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell by 4 - 10.5 cents / bushel. The harvest of the winter wheat in the US was completed at 84% at 80% on average for the last five years. In good and excellent condition from the spring wheat is 33% of the area at 34% a week earlier and 68% a year earlier. Weekly US export controls for wheat are at 451,665 tonnes (-23.88% vs. last week and -23.32% vs. last year). Today, GASC will hold the next tender for the purchase of wheat from 1st September to 10th September.

Soybeans price –  Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago fell by 10 - 12.25 cents / bushel. In good and excellent condition aree 57% of the crops of soybeans (61% and 71%). Weekly export controls for soybeans are at 596,920 tonnes, which is almost 100% more than the previous week, but 17.27% less than the previous year. Safras Mercado estimates the Brazilian soybeans areas from the 2017-2018 crop  to 35.49 million hectares, but with expected lower yields, the crop will be 113.2 million tonnes.

Corn price -  Yesterday, corn futures in Chicago fell by 1 to 2.75 cents / bushel. In good and excellent condition in the USA are 62% of corn crops (64% and 76%). Weekly export controls of US corn are at 935,262 tonnes (-16.71% and -29.12%).

If the current US weather forecast comes true  we will talk about keeping the current yields, crops and prices but not for declines of the crops and price rises.