Grain Highlights 14.07.2022

IKAR raised its forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2022/23 to 90.5 million tons (88.7 in the previous estimate). Total grain production is projected at 138.5 million tons (133.5).

- According to IKAR, the export potential of Russian wheat in the new season will be 44 million tons (42), and the total grain export is projected to reach 56.1 million tons (52).

- In their July report, USDA analysts lowered their forecast for vegetable oil stocks in Ukraine in 2021/22 to 182,000 tons (369,000 at the end of 2020/21). Sunseed oil stocks will be 114,000 tons (155,000 in the previous estimate and 269,000 in 2020/21).

- Romanian farmers are of the opinion that the country's government should declare a state of emergency in connection with the prolonged and deepening drought.

- According to a forecast of the Association of Farmer Cooperatives in Germany, the wheat production in the country will reach 22.51 million tons in 2022 (+5.3% compared to 2021), and the growth will be achieved despite the drought. In July, the forecast was at the level of 22.65 million tons. Rapeseed production is projected to reach 3.77 million tons (3.78 and +8.2%), and winter barley production will reach 8.84 million tons (-0.5% compared to 2021).

- According to a FranceAgriMer forecast, wheat exports from France to countries outside the EU is expected to reach 10.3 million tons in 2022/23 (8.8 in 2021/22) and is the highest level since 2019/20.

- According to a forecast by Strategie Grains, the wheat production in the EU in 2022/23 will reach 123.3 million tons (124.4 in the previous estimate and 129.9 last year). The barley production is estimated at 49.6 million tons (50.3 and 51.9), and corn production is projected at 65.4 million tons (66.8 and 69.7). The estimate for wheat exports remained unchanged at 30.4 million tons. Wheat exports from Russia will be 40 million tons, but with a wheat production exceeding 89 million tons, exports will be up to 45 million tons.

- In May, 168,900 tons of wheat were imported into Great Britain (130,170 in April). Main suppliers were France with 85,300 tons and Canada with 51,010 tons. Over the period of July-May, wheat imports were 1.82 million tons (2.28 a year earlier), including 457,300 tons from France.

- In July, 6.3 million tons of corn will be exported from Brazil (1.68 in June and 3 in July 2021). Soybean exports will be 8 million tons (-2 and 10.15), and soymeal exports are expected at 2.21 million tons (1.74 in July 2021).

- According to SEA data, 590,920 tons of palm oil were delivered to India in June (514,020 in May). Sunseed oil imports reached 119,550 tonnes (118,480) and soyoil imports were 230,990 tons (373,040).

- Jordan has bought 60,000 tons of mill wheat of any origin at a price of 413 USD/ton C&F and delivery in November.