Grain Highlights 19.04.2024

20 Apr, 2024
Grain Highlights 19.04.2024
SovEcon has lowered their forecast for the wheat production in Russia for 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 93 million tons, marking the first reduction for the season.

- According to SovEcon, the Russian winter wheat production in 2024/25 will reach 67.3 million tons, while the spring wheat production will be 25.7 million tons - unchanged.

- During the week of April 24-30, the export tax on Russian wheat will reach 3,443 rubles/ton (3,276.6 a week earlier). The export tax on barley will be 440.7 rubles/ton (451.6) and zero tax will be applied on corn (0).

- According to the forecast by IKAR, wheat exports from Russia for 2023/24 will be 52 million tons (48.1 in 2022/23), which is the first time in history it has exceeded 50% of the production, which is 92.8 million tons (104.2). In 2024/25, the production is expected at 93 million tons with exports of 52 million tons. The total grain exports for the current season will reach 70.3 million tons (62.2 for 2022/23 and 68 for 2024/25).

- During the period from July 01, 2023, to April 19, 2024, Ukraine exported 39.059 million tons of grain (40.092 a year earlier), including 4.199 million tons in April (2.115). Wheat exports amounted to 15.106 million tons (13.734), barley exports were 2.139 million tons (2.393) and corn exports reached 21.515 million tons (23.641).

- FranceAgriMer forecasts wheat exports from France to EU countries to reach 10 million tons for the current season (10.15 in the previous estimate). Ending stocks will reach 3.75 million tons (3.74). Barley exports will be 1.66 million tons (1.75 and 1.01), and corn exports are projected at 2.34 million tons (2.43 and 1.65).

- In early April, wheat stocks in Indian state warehouses reached their lowest level in the last 16 years at 7.5 million tons (8.35 a year earlier and 16.7 on average for the last 10 years). In the future, authorities will aim to maintain stocks above 10 million tons. In this regard, 30-32 million tons of wheat will be purchased from farmers in 2024.

- In March, India's oilmeal exports reached 395,300 tons (575,958 in March 2023), according to SEA estimates, including 173,600 tons of rapeseed meal and 198,900 tons of soymeal. Throughout 2023/24, Bangladesh imported 892,660 tons of oilmeals (+57.3%), South Korea 832,100 tons (+9%), Thailand 632,700 tons (-18.9%).

- In 2024, feed demand in Vietnam will increase to 26.5 million tons (25.9 in 2023). Corn consumption will be 14.1 million tons, including 12.7 million tons for feed. Corn production in the country will be 3.65 million tons (3.76), and imports will be 11 million tons (10).

- Tunisia has purchased 25,000 tons of hard wheat at a price of 376.49 USD/ton C&F.

- In their April report, analysts from the IGC forecast grain exports from Russia in 2024/25 at 59 million tons (58.7 in March and 63.3 in 2023/24). The grain production in the new season will be 132.8 million tons, unchanged from the March estimate, including 90.4 million tons of wheat with exports of 48.1 million tons (52.1). World grain production in 2024/25 will reach 2,322 million tons (2,322 in March), including 797.7 million tons of wheat (798.8).

- In their April report, analysts from the IGC forecast a global corn production of 1,226 million tons in 2024/25 (-7 compared to March and +3 compared to 2023/24), which is a record result. Corn production will reach 374 million tons in the USA (-8), 65.6 million tons in the EU (+1.2), 293 million tons in China (+2), 16.5 million tons  in South Africa (+0.5). Global exports will be 178.9 million tons (176.9 and 182), with reserves of 291.4 million tons (296.9 and 289.1).