The EUR/USD currency pair dropped to 1.0528, while the price of US WTI crude oil rose to $68.70 per barrel.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that a strong economy might justify a slower pace in future interest rate cuts. Speaking in Dallas, Powell mentioned that the Fed does not need to rush into easing monetary policy. "The strength we currently see in the economy allows us to take a careful approach to our decisions," he said. His comments could influence market expectations for the next rate cut, as traders anticipated a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed in December prior to Powell’s speech. Investors also responded to the US unemployment report, which showed that jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since May. Initial claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ending November 9, lower than analysts’ expectations of 220,000 claims.

Yesterday, December wheat futures in Chicago fell by 10 3/4 cents to $5.30 1/4 per bushel. Chicago wheat prices declined, while in Paris, they were mixed. Only the soon-to-expire December contract in Paris saw an increase, while subsequent contracts declined. U.S. weekly export sales of wheat are expected to range between 250,000–550,000 tons of the old crop and 0–50,000 tons of the new crop. Japan purchased 114,403 tons of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the United States. Strategie Grains forecasts a 5% increase in wheat acreage in the EU for 2025/26, though challenging planting conditions will limit yields, keeping total production at the 2024/25 level of 114.4 million tons. SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production by 1.5 million tons to 81.6 million tons, while export expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 million tons to 51.4 million tons. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, wheat exports from Australia in 2023/24 reached 19.59 million tons, including durum wheat, with 17.64 million tons shipped in bulk and 1.95 million tons in containers. In 2022/23, exports stood at 31.67 million tons. Forecasts indicate additional rainfall in the U.S. Wheat Belt, raising water levels on the Mississippi River and improving transport to the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions in France are expected to be wet, while Ukraine and Russia will remain mostly dry.

FranceAgriMer projects soft wheat exports from France in 2024/25 at 9.9 million tons (down from a previous estimate of 10.03 million tons and 40.5% lower than the previous season). Barley forecasts remain nearly unchanged at 5.05 million tons, while corn estimates have slightly risen to 4.76 million tons.

Yesterday, CBOT December corn futures dropped 7 1/2 cents to $4.19 per bushel. Corn futures declined in Chicago but rose in Paris. For the week ending November 8, 2024, U.S. ethanol production reached 1.113 million barrels per day, up 8,000 barrels from the previous week, marking a record high. Stocks slightly increased by 19,000 barrels to 22.039 million barrels. Exports rose by 35,000 barrels to 144,000 barrels, while refinery consumption decreased by 9,000 barrels per day to 909,000 barrels per day. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are expected to range between 1.25–2.6 million tons of the current crop and 0–100,000 tons of the new crop. Conab raised its 2024/25 corn production forecast for Brazil by 0.07 million tons to 119.81 million tons. In Argentina, 36% of the corn acreage and 20% of the soybean acreage have been planted.

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures declined 20 1/4 cents to $9.87 1/2 per bushel. The soybean complex in Chicago, rapeseed futures in Paris, and canola futures in Canada continued to decrease. The USDA reported an export sale of 176,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are expected to range between 1–2.2 million tons of the old crop and 0–100,000 tons of the new crop. Soymeal sales are projected at 175,000–540,000 tons. Conab slightly increased its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production to 166.14 million tons, up by 0.09 million tons. A record 5.35 million tons of soybeans were reportedly processed in the United States in October. According to FAS USDA, China's soybean production in 2024/25 will reach 19.9 million tons, with a rise in planted area to 9.95 million hectares. Imports are expected to total 104 million tons, with beginning stocks at 36.4 million tons (compared to 31.8 million tons last season). China’s oilseed processing in 2024/25 will reach 137.3 million tons (up from 135.3 million), with soybeans accounting for 99 million tons.

U.S. economic data points to stable growth. The Federal Reserve is concerned that a rapid rate cut could reignite inflation. Under a potential new term for Trump, we can expect political pressure for lower interest rates in the United States.