The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0495.
The price of US WTI light crude oil fell to $70.08 per barrel.
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday due to demand concerns, but investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (FED) interest rate decision. On Wednesday, the FED will conclude its final meeting of the year, where it is expected to reduce interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The meeting will also provide insight into whether and how much borrowing costs will be further lowered in 2025 and 2026, and what the central bank’s policy will be in anticipation of higher inflation under the future administration of Donald Trump.
Oil's outlook for next year is clouded by rising supplies from non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States and Brazil, as well as slowing demand, particularly in China. In its monthly report last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that even if OPEC+ maintains its production cuts, there will be an oversupply of 950,000 barrels per day next year—almost 1% of global supply.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 200.25 | -1.84 |
| Corn | March | 174.60 | -0.59 |
| Soybeans | January | 358.89 | -1.93 |
| Soymeal | January | 316.58 | +0.33 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 232.25 | -1.25 |
| Corn | March | 214.75 | -0.25 |
| Rapeseed | February | 537.50 | -4.25 |
Yesterday's Market Updates:
Wheat:
March wheat futures in Chicago dropped by 5 cents to $5.45 per bushel. Wheat futures declined in both Chicago and Paris. Japan announced a tender to purchase 77,220 tons of wheat from the United States and Australia.
SovEcon revised Russia's 2024 wheat production estimate down by 3 million tons to 78.7 million tons. From December 1–16, Russia exported 1.765 million tons of wheat (+13.5% compared to December 2023), 69,000 tons of barley (previously 163,000 tons), and 82,000 tons of corn (previously 277,000 tons).
Between July 1 and December 15, 2024, EU soft wheat exports reached 15.17 million tons, significantly lower than last year’s levels. France's Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025 soft winter wheat planting areas at 4.51 million hectares, an 8.7% increase compared to 2024.
MARS reported that winter wheat crops in the Black Sea region are poorly developed and vulnerable to low temperatures. Severe drought in Morocco and parts of Algeria indicates an urgent need for significant imports. Jordan purchased 120,000 tons of milling wheat from unspecified origins.
Corn:
March corn futures in Chicago declined by 1 1/2 cents to $4.43 1/2 per bushel. Corn futures also fell in Chicago and Paris. The USDA reported a private export sale of 170,400 tons of corn to Mexico. U.S. authorities plan to ensure year-round use of E15 gasoline, which was previously restricted during summer.
ANEC revised Brazil’s December corn export estimate to 4.1 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. South Korean importers purchased a total of 66,000 tons of corn. Due to insufficient rainfall, corn conditions in parts of Argentina are deteriorating, and planting in northern areas has been halted. EU corn imports since the start of the season are up 1% compared to last year.
Soybeans:
January soybean futures in Chicago fell by 5 1/4 cents to $9.76 3/4 per bushel. Soybean and soyoil futures decreased in Chicago, while soymeal futures increased. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada also declined.
Brazil is expected to receive significant rainfall through the year-end, while Argentina will see only isolated showers. The USDA reported private export sales of 187,000 tons of soybeans to Spain and 132,000 tons to an unknown destination. ANEC forecasts Brazil’s December soybean exports at 1.62 million tons, slightly above the previous estimate. The Brazilian real continued to weaken against the dollar.
Indonesia officially implemented B40 biodiesel consumption on January 1, 2025. Annual CO₂ emissions are expected to decrease by 40 million tons (compared to 32 million tons with B35). B40 fuel use will increase palm oil demand by 1.5–1.7 million tons. In November, Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell by 11.21% compared to October, to 2.005 million tons (previously 2.258 million tons).
Market Trends:
Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine are gradually slowing and are well below peak levels from two months ago. Russia’s wheat production is significantly below forecasts from three months ago, with a shortfall of 4–5 million tons. Barley and corn exports from Russia continue but in limited volumes.