Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair declined by 0.0071 to 1.0430. The price of US WTI light crude oil dropped by $1.36 per barrel to $69.46 per barrel.

Oil prices rose on Friday despite concerns about demand growth in 2025, particularly in China, the world's largest importer of crude oil. This resulted in a nearly 3% weekly decline in global benchmarks by the end of the week. China's state-owned refinery Sinopec stated in its annual energy forecast, published on Thursday, that the country's crude oil imports may peak as early as 2025, with consumption peaking by 2027. J.P. Morgan anticipates that the oil market will shift from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The bank forecasts that non-OPEC+ production will grow by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, while OPEC production will remain at current levels.

Given the steady growth of the U.S. economy, the recent interest rate cut in the Untied States appears strongly hawkish, almost closing the door for further cuts in 2025. If there are any, they are expected to be merely cosmetic.

Throughout the past week, March SRW wheat futures in Chicago dropped by 23 cents to close at $5.29 1/4 per bushel.

Over the previous week, CBOT March corn futures rose by 4 1/4 cents to close at $4.46 1/4 per bushel.

For the past week, Chicago January soybean futures fell by 13 3/4 cents to close at $9.74 1/2 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending December 12.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

Over the past week, there were scattered showers in the United States, but they were not significant. In Western Europe, the weather was relatively warm for the season with some rain. In the Balkans, it was also not too cold, with snow and rain showers. In Ukraine, weather remained warm with little precipitation. In Russia, there was snowfall and very cold weather. In India, weather continued to be dry. There was no precipitation in China. In Indonesia and Malaysia, there was heavy rainfall. In Australia, rainfall decreased significantly. In Brazil, there was a lot of rain, but in some areas of Argentina, there was a noticeable lack of moisture.

Over the next 10 days, positive temperatures and light precipitation are expected in the US Corn Belt. In the US Wheat Belt, weather will be warm, with more rain expected after 10 days. In Western Europe, it will be slightly cold but mostly dry. In the Balkans, there will be predominantly positive temperatures with occasional showers. In Ukraine, temperatures will be around 0°C with light precipitation. In southern Russia, temperatures will be around 0°C with no precipitation. In the central regions, there will be moderate snowfall and cold weather. In India, warm and dry weather will persist. In China, temperatures will be around 0°C with almost no precipitation. In Indonesia and Malaysia, there will be good rainfall. In Australia, the weather will be warm to hot, with light showers in some areas. In Brazil, rainfall will continue. In Argentina, the weather will be warm to hot, with almost no precipitation.

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

Exports:

Exports of all crops from the United States remain at good levels. Weekly export sales are also very strong. Wheat exports from the EU continue to lag behind last season. Wheat exports from Russia are at a weekly level of approximately 850,000–900,000 tons. Wheat and corn exports from Ukraine have returned to their usual levels of 250,000 tons and 650,000 tons per week, respectively.

Wheat: On Friday, the March wheat contract in Chicago remained unchanged, while the following contracts decreased. In Paris, there was also a decline. Over the next two weeks, temperatures in the US Wheat Belt will be positive, with relatively humid weather. US wheat export sales are 29% higher than last year and account for 48% of the USDA's annual forecast (53% is the average for recent years). Export commitments are up 9% compared to last year, representing 71% of the USDA forecast and 78% of the average level for recent years. Officially, Russia has a grain export quota for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2025, set at 10.6 million tons, almost entirely allocated for wheat. There is no quota for barley and corn exports. Analysts expect U.S. wheat areas for the 2025 crop to reach 46.3 million acres (46.1 million in 2024). With a yield of 50.5 bushels per acre, the harvest is projected at 52.4 million tons (compared to 53.6 million in 2024).

Coceral forecasts a total grain production in the EU and the UK in 2025 of 297.8 million tons (278.5 million in 2024). The soft wheat production is expected to reach 140.4 million tons (125.5 million), barley production is estimated at 59.7 million tons (57.3 million), and corn production is projected at 61.9 million tons (60.2 million). The rapeseed production is forecasted at 20.3 million tons (18.3 million).

Corn: On Friday, corn futures in Chicago increased, while in Paris, they declined. The USDA announced a private export sale of 150,000 tons of corn to Colombia. Since the start of the season, US corn exports are up 31% compared to last year, accounting for 22% of the USDA's annual forecast (19% is the average). Analysts expect U.S. corn acreage for 2025 to reach 92.8 million acres (90.7 million in 2024). With a yield of 184 bushels per acre, the production is projected at 394.9 million tons (384.6 million in 2024).

Once again, the question arises—what will be done with such a surplus of grain if there are good productions in Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, the EU, and China? Corn in Chicago has reached its highest levels in the past six months. Domestic demand for corn remains consistently high—for feed and ethanol. Exports are very strong, even without a major buyer like China.

Soybeans: On Friday, soybean and soymeal futures in Chicago rose, while soyoil futures fell. Rapeseed futures in Paris declined, and near-term canola contracts in Canada remained unchanged, though future contracts increased. In Brazil, heavy rainfall persists, but Argentina faces emerging issues with precipitation.

U.S. soybean exports are up 22% compared to last year, marking a four-year high. Exports account for 51% of the USDA's annual forecast. Commitments are up 10% compared to last year, representing 78% of the USDA's seasonal forecast. For 2025, U.S. soybean acreage is expected to reach 84 million acres (87.1 million in 2024). With an average yield of 52 bushels per acre, the production is projected at 120.8 million tons (121.3 million in 2024).

In November, imports of Brazilian soybeans into China fell by 25% compared to the previous season, while US soybean imports increased. A total of 2.79 million tons of soybeans were imported from the United States (2.29 million a year earlier) and 3.94 million tons from Brazil. Total imports amounted to 7.15 million tons. In the first 11 months of the season, China's soybean imports reached 97.09 million tons, likely setting a new record for the year.

The urgency in completing deliveries before a potential policy shift in the United States is a driving factor. Total deliveries from the US during this period amounted to 17.88 million tons (-9%), while imports from Brazil increased to 71.7 million tons (+10%).

During the week, Sinograin purchased 500,000 tons of soybeans from the United States at a higher price than Brazilian offers. The US soybeans are of higher quality and less prone to spoilage, making them preferred for long-term storage.

Argentina and Brazil: According to data from the Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires, 77% of planned corn areas for the new crop have been sown in Argentina. Soybean planting has progressed to 76.6%. Wheat harvesting is advancing rapidly due to low rainfall, covering 76.1% of the areas.

Conab forecasts a record grain and oilseed production in Brazil for 2024/25 at 322.4 million tons (+8.2% compared to 2023/24). Soybean production is expected to reach 166.2 million tons, while corn production is forecasted at 119.6 million tons, with local analysts expecting up to 125 million tons.

Year-End Observations: The year concludes with fewer news updates, ongoing geopolitical clashes, heightened economic tensions, slowing growth among major global economies, and declining interest rates.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

During the week, FOB prices for crops moved in different directions, but overall, declines predominated.

Wheat – FOB wheat prices showed mixed movement, with a significant drop in the United States and small or no changes for other exporters. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat is 230 USD/ton (-$6/ton for the week and -$3/ton the week before). Australian milling wheat is priced at 228 USD/ton (-$10 for the week and -$2 the previous week), wheat with 10% protein is at 222 USD/ton (-$8 during the week and -$2 the previous week), and Australian feed wheat is priced at 193 USD/ton (down from $201 the week before). The decline in Australian wheat prices is concerning as it is becoming very competitive compared to Black Sea region wheat. Argentine wheat is also relatively inexpensive. Thus, production from the Southern Hemisphere is expected to dominate the market in the coming weeks and months.

Corn – FOB corn prices showed little movement, with a slight decline. The FOB Brazilian corn prices rose by 1 USD/ton to 210 USD/ton (+$5 the week before). US corn remains the cheapest on the market.

Soybeans – FOB soybean prices experienced a slight decline. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans dropped by 4 USD/ton (-$29 the week before) to 392 USD/ton.

During the past week, global oil prices fell moderately to slightly. Sunseed oil saw the smallest decline.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):