The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0265. The price of US WTI light crude oil rose to $73.13 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Thursday, the first trading session of 2025, as investors returning from the holidays closely monitored China's economic recovery and fuel demand following President Xi Jinping's pledge to promote growth. On Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated in his New Year’s address that the country would implement more proactive policies to stimulate growth in 2025. Factory activity in China grew in December, but at a slower pace than expected. This comes amid concerns about trade prospects and risks associated with proposed tariffs by newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump.

In Europe, Russia halted gas exports through Soviet-era pipelines passing through Ukraine on New Year’s Day. The stoppage is expected not to affect consumer prices in the EU, as some buyers have secured alternative supplies. Meanwhile, Hungary will continue receiving Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 5 3/4 cents to $5.45 3/4 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago decreased, while they rose in Paris. Rainfall has been observed in many parts of the US Wheat Belt. For the week ending December 26, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales are expected to range from 200,000 to 500,000 tons, plus 0 to 75,000 tons for the next harvest. Between July 1 and December 30, 2024, Ukraine exported 21.507 million tons of grain (17.932 million tons in the same period last year), including 3.142 million tons in December (4.836 million tons last year). Limited rainfall has been recorded in parts of Ukraine, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

Yesterday, Chicago March corn futures rose by 1 cent to $4.59 1/2 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago and Paris increased. For the week ending December 27, 2024, U.S. ethanol production reached 1.111 million barrels per day, up 4,000 barrels from the previous week. Weekly ethanol stocks increased by 565,000 barrels to 23.639 million barrels. Ethanol exports for the week were 99,000 barrels (compared to 67,000 previously), while refinery consumption was 859,000 barrels per day (-61,000 barrels). In November, U.S. corn usage for ethanol production reached 11.81 million tons (-0.4% from October and +1.7% compared to November 2023). Between September and November, usage totaled 35.05 million tons (+2.29%). Weekly U.S. corn export sales are expected to range from 0.8 to 1.4 million tons, plus 0 to 50,000 tons. StoneX estimates Brazil's 2024/25 corn production at 128.6 million tons (+0.3 million tons from the previous forecast). Due to dry weather in southern Brazil, LSEG Commodities Research slightly reduced its forecast for Brazil's corn production to 127.2 million tons.

Yesterday, CBOT March soybean futures increased by 1 1/2 cents to $10.12 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures in Chicago rose, while soyoil futures fell. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada increased. Central Argentina is expected to see rain at the end of next week, while no rainfall is expected in northern regions or southern Brazil. StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production by 5.2 million tons to 171.4 million tons. In November, U.S. soybean processing reached 5.71 million tons (5.64 million tons forecasted), which is 2.66% below the all-time record set in October and 4.97% higher than in November 2023. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are expected to range from 0.5 to 1.2 million tons, plus 0 to 100,000 tons. Soymeal sales are expected to range from 150,000 to 400,000 tons, and soyoil sales from 5,000 to 40,000 tons.

As of early January 2025, Russia’s export tax on sunseed oil is 16,067 rubles/ton (9,195.8 rubles the previous week), and the export tax on sunseed meal is 4,771.6 rubles/ton (3,788.4 rubles). Yesterday, palm oil prices fell by 2.6% amid indications that Indonesia has not yet implemented its B40 standard. In December, Malaysia's palm oil exports reached 1.382 million tons (1.417 million tons in November).

Thus, 2025 begins. There isn’t much news. Expectations of excellent corn and soybean productions in South America remain, bringing us closer to this new reality. Global demand for all grains is strong, but supply is constrained by expanding biofuel programs.