The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0428.

Markets are anticipating a decision by newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump to ease restrictions on the Russian energy sector in exchange for a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine. This expectation offset concerns over supply disruptions caused by stricter sanctions. While the new sanctions could impact the supply of nearly 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil, experts believe the recent price increase may be short-lived depending on Trump's actions. Meanwhile, easing tensions in the Middle East also helped push oil prices lower. On Sunday, Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners, marking the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of war.

China’s central bank has kept its key lending rates unchanged for the third consecutive month, as the weakening yuan limits Beijing's efforts to ease monetary policy. During its monthly fixing on Monday, the one-year loan prime rate was maintained at 3.1%, while the five-year rate remained at 3.6%.

Yesterday, newly elected U.S. President Trump was sworn into office. His first statements are still being analyzed, but they do not provide clear guidance on his upcoming actions. We are seeing stabilization in oil markets, which is not favorable for grain markets. It is likely to some extent that large-scale tariffs will not be imposed, and instead, swift negotiations will take place with the aim of improving the U.S.'s trade position while maintaining the status of its current partners.

China’s central bank has kept interest rates unchanged, waiting to see the impact of other economic stimulus measures. It is becoming increasingly difficult to implement large-scale financial injections due to high debt levels and the lack of demand for massive construction projects—everything needed for the next 10 years has already been built, yet the economy continues to slow down. Clearly, construction is not a long-term growth driver.

In Argentina, the situation regarding rainfall is becoming clearer. Rain has fallen and will continue only in the northern regions of the country, while the central and southern areas remain dry and warm. The Rosario Grain Exchange has lowered its forecast for Argentina’s 2024/25 corn production to 48 million tons from the previous estimate of 50–51 million tons. The soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 53–53.5 million tons, despite a sharp decline in crop conditions. A revision in the soybean forecast is likely at a later stage. These reductions are due to the lack of rainfall during December and January. Today, the Chicago Board of Trade will open and is expected to react to political developments and weather conditions in Argentina.

In the US Wheat Belt—Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska—there is an extreme cold wave without stable snow cover. Crop damage is expected, with initial assessments due by the end of the week.

According to Oil World data, Malaysia’s palm oil exports in 2024 have reached their highest level in the past four years at 16.9 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous year. By the end of December, palm oil stocks in the country had fallen to just 1.7 million tons (compared to 2.29 million tons a year earlier). Indonesia is still facing challenges in implementing its B40 biodiesel program, but this is expected to be resolved by spring. The palm oil market remains tight. Last week, sunseed oil prices in the Black Sea region increased due to a shortage of sunflower seeds for production. Domestic prices in Ukraine are rising, which will have a positive impact across the Black Sea market as well.