The global grain market opened Tuesday on mixed footing after all three major crops closed lower on Monday.
At the start of the trading day, May 2025 wheat futures in Chicago were priced at $5.44½ per bushel, down 3 cents in early trade after Monday's drop of 8¼ cents. The wheat complex remains under pressure amid forecasts of precipitation in U.S. growing regions and weak planting incentives in Brazil.
Corn futures for May 2025 began the day at $4.85¾ per bushel, rebounding slightly by ¾ cent in early trading after a 5¼ cent dip on Monday. Market participants are monitoring planting progress and strong export figures, with Mexico and Japan leading demand. USDA data shows corn planting at 4%, just a tick behind the five-year average.
Soybeans started the day with additional weakness, as May 2025 futures opened at $10.33½ per bushel, down 8¼ cents after a modest 1-cent loss on Monday. Traders await NOPA's crush report expected later today, which is forecasted to show a record March crush. Despite tariff tensions, China remained the top destination for U.S. soybeans last week.
A key driver shaping sentiment on Tuesday is the ongoing U.S.–China trade war. The UN Food & Agriculture Organization stated that South American countries—especially Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay—are poised to benefit from the disrupted global cereal trade, stepping in to fill gaps left by the United States. According to FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero, this shift underscores the vulnerability of global markets concentrated in a few exporting nations. Retail food inflation remains high due to energy and transportation costs, putting import-dependent countries at higher risk.
Weather remains a pivotal theme. Argentina’s Pampas are drying out after recent heavy rainfall, aiding corn and soybean harvests delayed by waterlogged fields. In Central Brazil, however, wet spells continue, potentially threatening Safrinha corn pollination. Meanwhile, East Asia’s favorable conditions are boosting corn planting in northeast China, while North India’s dry weather is expected to support the wheat harvest.
Argentina’s government lifted currency controls late Friday, allowing the peso to float between 1,000 and 1,400 per dollar. The move was meant to stimulate grain sales, but so far, farmers are focused on harvesting amid intermittent rains and market uncertainty. Sales of corn and soy remain sluggish, despite President Javier Milei’s appeal for growers to capitalize on temporary tax incentives before they expire in June.
In Brazil, wheat planting is underway in Goiás and Minas Gerais, while major producers Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul will begin sowing in May and June. The wheat area for 2025 is expected to shrink by 9.3% due to weak price incentives, especially in Paraná where the planted area is forecast to drop over 20%. However, higher yields—up 18.5%—could offset this decline, bringing total production to 8.47 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year.
In France, the agriculture ministry revised its soft wheat planting estimate upward to 4.63 million hectares, up 10% from last year. Winter conditions have improved, although durum wheat plantings dropped to a 32-year low. Total barley acreage is also down 3.6% year-on-year.
Brazil’s biodiesel industry is pushing for the national blend mandate to increase from 14% to 15%. Industry group Abiove cites declining vegetable oil prices and increased processing capacity as favorable conditions. A decision from the government is expected soon, with the potential to reshape domestic soy oil demand and impact export volumes.
In Asia, India is anticipating above-normal monsoon rains for the 2025 season, forecasted at 105% of the long-term average. This is crucial for crop yields, reservoir replenishment, and food security in the region. The announcement provides relief to farmers following early summer heatwaves and brings optimism for both wheat and rice harvests.
In Ukraine, meteorologists warned that a cold snap in early April temporarily halted grain crop development, with temperatures plunging to -11°C in some areas. Snow and soil frost delayed field work, but heavy rains later helped replenish subsoil moisture. As of April 11, Ukrainian farmers had sown 1.25 million hectares of spring crops, including barley, wheat, peas, and oats.
Pakistan is facing a projected 10.6% decline in wheat production in 2025, falling to 28.6 million tons due to a 7% drop in cultivated area and prolonged dry weather. The agriculture ministry expects total availability, including carryover stocks, to fall short of the national requirement, increasing reliance on imports.
Finally, Germany has officially been declared free of foot-and-mouth disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. The certification follows an isolated January outbreak, and Britain has since lifted its import ban on German livestock products. This development is expected to restore confidence in EU livestock markets.
Grain traders today remain highly alert to shifting fundamentals, geopolitical developments, and evolving weather patterns. With futures markets moving on both export numbers and planting data, the week ahead promises continued volatility and strategic positioning.