Wheat

Chicago wheat futures opened Wednesday at $5.42 per bushel for the May 2025 contract, showing early gains of 6 cents following Tuesday’s decline of 5½ cents. Tuesday’s downturn was felt across all three major U.S. wheat exchanges, as Kansas City HRW slipped 1 to 3 cents and Minneapolis HRS dropped 3 to 4 cents. Concerns around crop conditions remained a key factor—USDA data showed a 1% decline in winter wheat rated good to excellent, now at 47%. Particularly hard-hit were key HRW states like Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. France, however, is on the upswing, increasing its soft wheat acreage by 10% year-on-year to 4.61 million hectares. In the southern hemisphere, Argentina’s forecast for 2025/26 wheat production now stands at 20.5 million tons, a significant increase from 18.6 million tons last year.

Corn

Corn futures began the midweek session at $4.81¼ per bushel for May 2025, up 3 cents following a Tuesday decline of 3¾ cents. Tuesday’s trading reflected mixed sentiment as bull spreads continued to unwind, particularly between the May and December contracts. Planting remains slightly behind schedule at 4%, just under the five-year average, with Kansas and Texas leading. USDA reported a new private export sale of 110,000 tons to Portugal on Tuesday, adding to a Monday sale to Japan. Nonetheless, forecasts for heavy rainfall in Missouri, Iowa, and Kansas over the coming days could disrupt early planting momentum. Ethanol data, expected later today, may offer further direction as analysts anticipate steady production after last week’s drop.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened Wednesday at $10.36 per bushel for May 2025, also up 3 cents after Tuesday’s 5¾ cent drop. USDA’s weekly report confirmed 2% of the U.S. soybean crop is now planted—matching the five-year average. NOPA’s March crush data came in slightly under expectations at 194.55 million bushels, although it marked a 9.4% rise from February. Soy oil stocks declined sharply by 19% year-over-year to 1.498 billion pounds, a bullish factor that may support oil prices in coming weeks. The soybean complex showed mixed performance Tuesday: front-month soymeal fell by as much as $2.90/ton, while soy oil rebounded 60 to 101 points.

Key Global Market Drivers

China’s Cofco International is doubling down on its presence in Brazil, announcing new hires across departments as it builds out the world’s largest grain terminal at Santos port. This strategic move reflects growing Chinese dependence on Brazilian soybeans, especially in light of the ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions. Cofco’s expansion contrasts sharply with U.S. giants like ADM and Cargill, which are undergoing global workforce reductions.

Argentina’s corn and soybean harvest faces potential delays due to cooler-than-expected weather across the Pampas, while ethanol output in the U.S. is under close watch today. Analysts are predicting a slight production drop, with inventories expected to edge down to 26.8 million barrels.

Brazilian soybean exports are surging. According to Anec, April exports could reach 14.5 million metric tons, up from last week's estimate of 13.3 million. Soymeal exports are also forecast to climb to 2.4 million tons.

In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasted 2025/26 wheat production at 20.5 million metric tons. However, this could rise if the current temporary reduction in export taxes from 12% to 9.5% is extended beyond June. With the peso now floating freely between 1,000 and 1,400 per USD, the weaker currency is spurring farmers to accelerate shipments.

Ukraine's 2025/26 corn production is projected to hit 27.9 million tons, up 14% from last year, thanks to higher sown area and yields. Cold snaps halted early planting, but replenished soil moisture in key oblasts could support strong development if warm weather continues through April.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s palm oil output is expected to rise to 47 million tons in 2025/26, up from 45.5 million currently. Despite higher exports, increased domestic use for biodiesel could limit availability abroad, especially as the government eyes raising the blending mandate beyond 40%.

In China, Q1 pork output rose 1.2% year-on-year to 16 million tons, driven by increased sow numbers and heavier hog weights. Despite this, analysts remain cautious about long-term profitability due to oversupply and slow demand. Beijing continues efforts to stabilize production after warning that national consumption may have peaked.

The weather outlook remains critical. The U.S. is expecting a return to active storm patterns by the weekend, with beneficial rains for winter wheat but potential planting delays for spring crops. In Brazil, anticipated rainfall over the next 10–15 days could finally improve Safrinha corn conditions, while Argentina will benefit from a more favorable harvest window due to lighter showers.

In summary, Wednesday’s grain trade is unfolding amid growing tension between macroeconomic fundamentals and weather-related uncertainty. While planting progress and export activity remain steady, volatility is likely to persist as global buyers, sellers, and policymakers navigate this pivotal stage in the agricultural calendar.