Wheat

Wheat futures showed limited gains on Thursday before paring back into a mixed close. The May 2025 CBOT wheat contract finished at $5.48¾ per bushel, up 1 cent on the day. Kansas City HRW futures were steady to down 3 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat ended up 2 to 3 cents. Although export demand lent some support—particularly Algeria's sizable purchase of up to 630,000 tons—the U.S. market remained capped by ongoing concerns about winter wheat condition. USDA’s Crop Progress reported just 47% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, down from last week. In global developments, SovEcon lifted Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 79.7 million tons, with improved winter wheat outlooks, while the International Grains Council raised global ending stocks projections due to lower consumption forecasts.

Corn

Corn futures eased slightly by the close, with the May 2025 contract settling at $4.82¼ per bushel, down 2 cents on the day and 8 cents lower for the week. Earlier gains failed to hold amid mixed sentiment, as traders balanced solid export sales—topping 1.5 million tons—and steady ethanol data against weather concerns. USDA data confirmed planting delays due to wet soils, particularly from the Gulf to the Great Lakes. Brazil’s CONAB raised its ethanol output estimate to 37.19 billion liters, mostly sugarcane-derived. In Argentina, the corn harvest advanced to 28%, outperforming the five-year average of 20%. On the global supply front, the International Grains Council increased world corn production and stock estimates for both current and new crop seasons.

Soybeans

Soybean markets edged lower ahead of the holiday weekend, with May 2025 futures closing at $10.36½ per bushel, down 2¼ cents on the day and 6¼ cents for the week. The national average cash price slipped 2 cents to $9.85¾. Soymeal futures softened by $0.90 to $1.00/ton, while soy oil firmed 32 to 38 points. USDA reported export sales of 554,806 tons for the week ending April 10—a five-week high—though reductions from unknown destinations capped gains. The Buenos Aires Exchange reported Argentina’s harvest progress at just 4.9%, sharply below the five-year norm of 31%. Global soybean stocks were revised downward by the IGC, though 2025/26 projections remained flat.

Key Global Grain Market Developments

The U.S. ethanol sector remained in the spotlight after weekly DOE data showed a 0.8% decline in national ethanol stocks to 26.814 million barrels. Production slipped slightly to 1.012 million barrels per day. As biofuel policy enters a new phase under the Trump administration, leaders in the renewable diesel space—like Montana Renewables—called for quotas to double, arguing that the industry can reach 7.3 billion gallons.

Weather remains a central factor. In the U.S., rains in the Southern Plains are forecast to cover key areas of Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, potentially improving soil moisture for winter wheat. However, cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northern Plains could delay spring crop progress. In Europe, upcoming rainfall in France, Germany, and Poland may ease drought stress for rapeseed but soil moisture deficits persist, especially in Poland and Germany.

The EU wheat export situation continues to disappoint. The bloc’s exports are down 35% year-over-year at 16.7 million tons. FranceAgriMer cut its 2024/25 non-EU soft wheat export forecast to 3.1 million tons, 70% below last year. Meanwhile, Algeria boosted its reserves by purchasing over 600,000 tons of wheat.

In Argentina, soybean and corn harvests are progressing slowly due to sporadic rainfall and previous moisture surpluses. The Buenos Aires Exchange held its soybean crop forecast at 48.6 million tons, but the slow harvest—just 4.9% complete—remains a concern. For corn, production is now pegged at 48.8 million tons.

Ukraine’s corn outlook for 2025/26 remains upbeat at 27.9 million tons, up 14% year-on-year. Cold snaps delayed sowing but have helped replenish soil moisture. Total corn area is seen at 4.2 million hectares.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s palm oil production is forecast at 47 million tons, aided by favorable rainfall. However, growing domestic demand for biodiesel may limit export availability, especially if the biofuel mandate is raised above 40%.

China’s Q1 pork production rose 1.2% to 16 million tons, but market oversupply and soft demand keep prices under pressure. In response, Beijing continues to guide producers to scale back expansion plans.

The global rapeseed outlook for the EU-27 and UK remains steady at 19.9 million tons. While Bulgaria shows improvement, Germany and Poland remain vulnerable to moisture stress, posing yield risks for the months ahead.

Brazil’s export engine continues to perform. April soybean exports were raised to 14.5 million tons, with soymeal at 2.4 million tons. However, continued rainfall is essential for sustaining Safrinha corn development.

Argentina’s bioethanol industry continues to expand. A record 1.21 million cubic meters were produced in 2024, with 60% based on corn. Although Argentina only converts 4% of its corn into ethanol, there are growing efforts to adopt E17 and E70 fuel blends in provinces like Córdoba. This supports the shift toward energy sustainability and higher crop value-add.

As markets enter a long Easter weekend, price discovery will pause until Sunday night’s open. The outlook remains tightly linked to planting progress, trade volumes, and upcoming weather across key producing regions.