Crop Focus – Opening Prices on Thursday, May 8, 2025 (Chicago, July 25 Contracts)

Wheat opened Thursday at $5.34, holding near Wednesday’s close after slipping 1¾ cents in the previous session. Overnight gains of 3½ cents in Chicago SRW suggested mild recovery in a market pressured earlier by export uncertainty and shifting U.S. Plains weather. Kansas HRW wheat followed similar patterns with 4½-cent overnight gains, as traders weighed the impact of drier outlooks for the central Plains. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather from Texas to the Dakotas over the next seven days, which could help harvest readiness but also pose stress risks. Taiwan’s import of 99,200 MT U.S. wheat provided a minor bullish sentiment heading into the day.

Corn began Thursday at $4.49¼, unchanged from the previous close after falling 6¼ cents on Wednesday. The market is showing early resilience with light overnight gains of ¼ cent. Brazil’s weak April corn exports, down nearly 80% month-on-month, and subdued ethanol data continue to temper bullish sentiment. U.S. ethanol production dropped to 1.02 million barrels/day last week, with inventories falling by 198,000 barrels. Analysts expect export sales data to show between 0.7 and 1.4 million MT in old crop corn bookings. Meanwhile, South Korea remained active, securing 137,000 MT of U.S. corn overnight.

Soybeans opened higher at $10.46¾, up 7½ cents from Wednesday’s close of $10.39¼. The market is gaining momentum despite a mixed close the previous day, with front-month contracts down 2 cents and deferred months higher. Recent export data from Brazil showed strong April shipments of 15.271 MMT, while projections for May have been cut to 12.6 MMT due to Chinese stock levels and cautious demand. U.S. planting progress is ahead of schedule at 30%, but Illinois soil moisture remains alarmingly low. With more rainfall expected in the Southern Plains, traders are closely watching for any potential planting disruptions.

Global Market Movers – 12 Key Developments Driving Grain Trade Today

Rapid progress in U.S. soybean planting is boosting optimism for the 2025/26 harvest, with current projections revised upward by 1% to 117 million tons. Despite lower acreage estimates, swift sowing in key regions like Iowa and Indiana is counterbalancing dry soil concerns, although central Illinois remains critically dry. The upcoming USDA report is expected to shed further light on this dynamic.

U.S. corn planting also continues at a brisk pace, but recent ethanol data has brought caution. Weekly output fell to 1.02 million barrels/day and exports slipped. The DOE report showed a drop in ethanol stocks to 25.191 million barrels. Meanwhile, bipartisan support for the new Ag BIO Act is expected to incentivize future corn-based bioproduct innovation and strengthen long-term demand.

Brazil’s soybean exports may decline in May to 12.6 million tons, according to ANEC, following record April volumes. Despite strong Chinese buying in Q1, current high inventories in China are reducing near-term demand. However, analysts note that Brazil could resume high-volume shipments later this year, depending on U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Canada’s rapeseed production is forecast to rise to 18.2 million tons in 2025/26 despite a 3.5% drop in planted area. A shift toward wheat and spring crops is underway due to cost and input challenges. Soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is at six-year lows, raising yield concerns under a warm, dry summer forecast.

Canadian wheat production is also expected to increase by 4.5% to 36.5 million tons, driven by expanded area and recovery from last year’s poor yields. Favorable early conditions across Alberta are offset by soil moisture deficits in the southern Prairies, which could limit yield potential if rains do not materialize.

In the U.S., traders are preparing for Monday’s Crop Production report, which is expected to show all wheat production at 1.885 billion bushels. Winter wheat will account for 1.325 billion, including 748 million HRW and 342 million SRW. SRW futures remain under pressure, but open interest rotation signals a possible change in market structure.

The Black Sea region is receiving timely rainfall from several stalled weather fronts, improving conditions in previously dry areas of southern Russia and eastern Ukraine. Cold air is moving in from the northwest, slowing growth, but frost risks remain low for now. The outlook is supportive of gradual moisture recovery.

In China, weather models forecast substantial rainfall across the North China Plain through Friday, which could benefit wheat nearing heading stages and early corn and soybean emergence. However, beyond this window, precipitation is expected to be sporadic, posing risks if moisture deficits return.

Malaysian palm oil prices rose 73 ringgit overnight to 3,801, up nearly 2% on improved sentiment. However, inventories remain high and export demand weak. Traders remain cautious with price direction, especially given the 1.67-point monthly decline in soyoil, which continues to influence global vegetable oil markets.

Australian wheat planting faces growing risks as a two-week dry spell persists. Drought conditions in parts of South Australia are expanding eastward, threatening early crop establishment. With no significant rainfall on the horizon, confidence in production potential is waning.

In Argentina, widespread rainfall is improving soil moisture ahead of wheat planting, though some fieldwork delays have occurred. The soy harvest remains slow, with only 25% completed amid high humidity and concerns about fungal pressure. Dry conditions expected by the weekend could allow brief harvest windows.

Finally, the geopolitical backdrop remains important. With the U.S.-China agricultural trade meeting in Geneva scheduled for this weekend, markets are hopeful for a de-escalation of tensions. Meanwhile, Japan’s Zen-Noh cooperative has opened a new trading hub in Geneva to secure diversified grain sourcing, signaling long-term demand stability from Asia.