Market Close – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans (Chicago, July 2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Wheat prices rose on Thursday, supported by gains in spring wheat futures. Chicago SRW July 2025 contracts closed at $5.34 per bushel, marking an increase of 3 ¾ cents. Kansas City HRW added 6 to 7 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat posted the largest gains, climbing 12 to 14 cents. Traders absorbed updates from the USDA and weather developments, while keeping a close eye on export forecasts. SovEcon increased its 2025/26 Russian export projection to 40.8 MMT, up by 1.1 MMT, while Ukraine’s export forecast dropped to 15 MMT, below last year’s 16.2 MMT. In the U.S., better-than-expected spring wheat planting and favorable soil moisture supported gains.

Corn

Corn futures slipped, with July 2025 contracts closing at $4.47 per bushel, down 4 cents. Despite losses, the market rebounded slightly from early session lows. USDA reported new private export sales of 104,000 MT to Mexico and 101,096 MT to unknown destinations. The delayed EIA report brought a mix of data: ethanol production climbed to an 8-week high at 1.056 million bpd, but ethanol stocks dropped to 24.281 million barrels. Corn's national average cash price declined to $4.21 1/4. Analysts anticipate Friday’s export report to show between 0.75 and 1.4 MMT in 2024/25 corn sales.

Soybeans

Soybean futures rallied modestly late in Thursday’s session. July 2025 contracts closed at $10.51 ¾ per bushel, up 3 ¼ cents. Soymeal futures also posted gains of $1 to $2.70/ton, although soyoil declined. Cash bean prices rose to $10.05. The market benefited from bullish momentum and optimism despite tariff-related trade tensions. Export sales figures are expected on Friday, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 MT for old crop and up to 250,000 MT for new crop. Bean meal and oil estimates also span wide ranges due to uncertainty and recent disruptions from Monday's U.S. holiday.

Global Developments Impacting Grain Markets

A U.S. trade court ruled that most of former President Donald Trump’s global tariffs were illegal, sending ripples through global markets. The ruling has been temporarily stayed, but if upheld, it could dramatically alter grain-related trade flows and input costs.

Weather continues to dictate market sentiment. The Midwest and Northern Plains are expected to remain dry over the next five days, favoring fieldwork. Heavier rainfall is forecasted for early June. In contrast, the Delta remains too wet, with flooding and disease concerns growing due to a lack of dry intervals this spring.

Northern Plains producers welcomed recent rains, which significantly improved soil moisture. Although drier weather is forecast for most of this week, another system is expected early next week, which could bring more precipitation as the spring wheat crop enters a critical growth phase.

In the Central and Southern Plains, excessive rainfall in parts of Oklahoma and Texas transitioned to a drying trend, though June is expected to be drier than average. The region’s outlook remains uncertain, with potential stress if rainfall does not return soon.

Across the Midwest, isolated showers continue but are not expected to be heavy. While this benefits planted crops, some southern regions remain behind on planting due to persistent wetness. Warmer weather is expected by the weekend, followed by potentially heavy rains next week.

The Canadian Prairies, benefiting from recent rainfall, are forecast to stay dry this week, allowing producers to finish planting. However, June is expected to be warmer and drier than normal, raising concerns for wheat yields during critical growth stages.

In Brazil, the safrinha corn harvest began slowly, while colder air behind a recent front may cause frost in Parana. This presents a risk to late-filling crops. Argentina, meanwhile, is experiencing cold, dry conditions that should accelerate delayed soybean harvests and winter wheat planting.

Argentina’s soybean harvest, already delayed by earlier rains, is now being aided by dry conditions. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 74.3% of the crop has been harvested. Cold air could further support drying efforts and boost field conditions.

The EU trimmed its 2025/26 total grain production outlook to 279.6 MMT, citing reduced corn production. While soft wheat and barley estimates were raised slightly, dryness continues to impact France, Germany, and the UK. Forecasts suggest some relief next week.

Ukraine’s producers expect higher wheat prices for the new crop, citing reduced global harvests and growing weather risks. Forecasts predict prices may rise to $240/ton by September and reach $260 post-January. The 2025 harvest is pegged at 21.8 MMT, down 3% from 2024.

Canada lowered its wheat production forecast to 35.3 MMT, down 3% from prior estimates, citing poor soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Even with expanded planted area, dry weather poses risks as crops approach the key development phase.

In Malaysia, the government reiterated its goal to reach B30 biodiesel adoption in the transport sector by 2030. With over 65% of palm oil cultivation certified sustainable, this move could lift demand for soyoil and related feedstocks.

Lastly, Brazil ruled out a suspected bird flu case in Tocantins, though export disruptions continue. Twenty-four countries, including China and the UAE, have restricted Brazilian chicken imports. Ongoing scrutiny and new suspected cases in other regions remain a risk to feed grain demand.