Wheat

Wheat opened Tuesday’s session on a downward trajectory, continuing Monday’s weakness. The July 2025 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat contract started the day at $5.42 per bushel, down 12¾ cents, with early losses of another 5¾ cents. Pressure stemmed from sluggish U.S. harvest progress—only 4% complete compared to the 5-year average of 7%—despite a slight improvement in condition ratings to 54% good/excellent. Open interest plunged by over 9,600 contracts, reflecting reduced investor confidence. While spring wheat conditions improved marginally and emergence remains ahead of average, export inspections disappointed. U.S. shipments dropped 47.5% from the prior week to just under 291,000 tons, with Mexico and Japan as the main destinations. Globally, despite a slight upward revision of Russia’s production forecast by SovEcon to 82.8 million tons, persistent dry conditions in key regions like Rostov continue to cast uncertainty over future yields.

Corn

July 2025 CBOT corn opened at $4.33½ per bushel, down 9 cents from Monday's close and slipping further by 2 cents in early trade. Corn futures hit fresh lows not seen since October. While U.S. planting is nearly complete at 97% and crop conditions improved to 71% good/excellent, exports remain underwhelming. Weekly inspections reached 1.657 million tons, with Mexico again the top destination. Harvest delays in Brazil’s key center-south region added bearish momentum. As of June 5, only 1.9% of the second crop had been harvested—the slowest pace since 2021—due to late planting and excessive moisture in top-producing states like Mato Grosso. Meanwhile, South Korea emerged as an active buyer overnight, booking 269,000 tons, though origin remains undisclosed.

Soybeans

Soybeans fared slightly better, with July 2025 CBOT contracts opening Tuesday at $10.56 per bushel, showing early gains of 3¾ cents. This modest uptick follows a mild 1¼ cent dip on Monday. U.S. planting is ahead of schedule at 90%, with emergence at 75% and crop condition ratings rising to 69% good/excellent. USDA inspection data showed 547,000 tons exported last week, up 81.5% and more than double last year’s figure. Mexico led destinations, followed by Japan and Egypt. However, strong Brazilian supply and ongoing pressure on soy oil prices continue to cap upside potential. U.S.-China trade talks resuming in London offer some hope, but uncertainty looms as markets digest whether any outcome will shift Chinese import behavior.

Key Global Grain Market Developments – June 10, 2025

Indonesia faces major setbacks in palm oil exports to the U.S. following the Trump administration’s announcement of reciprocal 32% tariffs. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association warns that competitiveness will be sharply reduced. Additional challenges stem from rising oil prices due to Middle East conflict and increased freight costs from disrupted shipping routes.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain a key variable. Talks are ongoing in London, with cautious optimism from both sides. However, uncertainty around tariff outcomes continues to cast a shadow over soybean flows and broader agricultural trade dynamics.

Weather disruptions persist across the Americas. Rains are expected to intensify across the U.S. Southern Plains and Southeast over the next 10 days, with Kansas and Oklahoma facing flood risks. Brazil’s harvest is under threat from excessive rain in the south, while Argentina’s dry weather may soon give way to much-needed precipitation for winter wheat.

Malaysian palm oil inventories rose to an eight-month high in May, climbing 6.7% to 1.99 million tons. Production surged while exports grew 26%, driven by reduced import duties in India. This trend is expected to limit further price drops, despite stockpile buildup.

China’s soybean imports reached a record 13.92 million tons in May. The surge is driven by efforts to secure Brazilian supply amid trade tensions with the U.S., signaling a continued shift in sourcing strategies.

Brazil’s second corn crop harvest pace is at its lowest since 2021, just 1.9% complete. AgRural attributes delays to high humidity and late planting, particularly in Mato Grosso. This crop accounts for 75% of the country’s annual corn production and is critical to global balance sheets.

Russia upgraded its wheat production estimate to 82.8 million tons, but severe dryness in Rostov—its top-producing region—tempers optimism. Overall, 93% of winter crops are reported in good condition, but concerns linger over spring-planted wheat areas.

USDA inspection data for the week ending June 5 shows soybeans and corn outperforming year-ago levels, but wheat continues to lag. Soybean shipments doubled compared to the same week in 2024, while wheat exports dropped by nearly half.

Export activity out of the U.S. continues to rely heavily on Mexico, which remains the primary destination for all three major crops. Taiwan, Japan, and Egypt also remain significant buyers, helping maintain steady flow despite fluctuating weekly volumes.

Palm oil futures dipped after Malaysian data showed rising output, but strong exports, especially to India, helped limit losses. Traders are watching for signals on whether India’s demand will continue to rise post-import duty cuts.

Russia expects a total grain harvest of at least 135 million tons in 2025, up from 125.9 million in 2024. This projection includes 31.6 million tons from the Southern Federal District, though yields there may fall due to weather issues.

Tropical cyclone risks are rising near Southeast China, with potential impacts expected within the next 10 days. This could disrupt grain movement and planting efforts in affected regions, adding volatility to Asia’s agricultural outlook.