Wheat

Wheat began Wednesday's trading with a firm tone. The July 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract opened at $5.42½ per bushel, carrying forward modest gains from the previous session. The market found support from supply-side concerns in the Black Sea, where southern Russian regions like Rostov face ongoing drought emergencies. Export competitiveness from Russia was also tested by declining FOB values, now ranging between $222 and $229 per ton. Meanwhile, France’s slight revision of wheat sowing area added mild bullish sentiment. U.S. winter wheat remained 93% headed but only 10% harvested, with condition ratings slipping to 52% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat saw a relatively better outlook, rated at 57% good/excellent. Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 388,752 metric tons, led by shipments to Nigeria.

Corn

Corn futures in Chicago opened at $4.37¾ per bushel for the July 2025 contract, up 3 cents from Tuesday’s close. While short-term sentiment remains bearish due to favorable U.S. crop conditions—94% emergence and 72% rated good/excellent—the market has been cautious. Traders are weighing the slow progress of Brazil’s second crop harvest, delayed by excess moisture in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. With only 5.2% harvested by June 12, well behind the previous year’s pace, production risk is rising. U.S. corn export inspections came in at 1.673 million metric tons, slightly below the prior week but still 21% above last year’s figures, with Japan remaining the top importer.

Soybeans

Soybeans started the session flat, with the July 2025 contract opening at $10.71¼ per bushel. The market continues to see resistance amid soft soymeal demand and subdued export activity. Weekly U.S. inspections dropped 61% from the previous week to 215,803 metric tons, with Germany as the lead destination. Soybean planting reached 93% completion, lagging slightly behind the five-year average, while crop conditions deteriorated to 66% good/excellent. Despite weak meal performance, support came from a 43% surge in Indonesian palm oil exports and tightening U.S. soybean oil stocks. Market participants are eyeing the upcoming USDA acreage report and possible biofuel blending changes as key forward-looking catalysts.

Key Developments Influencing Global Grain Markets – June 18, 2025

Romania is on track to reclaim its title as Europe’s leading wheat exporter, anticipating its largest crop since 1997. Output projections for the 2025–26 season are at 12.2 million tons, thanks to optimal growing conditions during the final stages. This reinforces Romania’s strategic role in the Black Sea grain corridor as the CME explores new contracts linked to Romanian and Bulgarian port references.

The USDA’s latest crop progress update offered a mixed view, with modest improvements in corn and soybean conditions, but a continued decline in winter wheat health. Export inspections fell across all three major crops, especially for soybeans. Although May’s crush volume set a monthly record, weak margins and product oversupply muted optimism in the oilseed complex.

Russian wheat prices softened further with the onset of harvest and improved output forecasts. The national estimate was lifted to 82.8 million tons, though drought conditions in southern regions like Rostov triggered official emergency responses. New crop FOB prices continued to trend lower, adding downward pressure to global benchmarks.

Brazil’s second corn harvest is struggling due to persistent humidity, particularly in key states like Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. The pace of harvest lags far behind last year, and while drier conditions are forecast in parts of Mato Grosso, delays are expected to persist elsewhere, posing a risk to export timing and yield quality.

LSEG’s updated forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 now stands at 796.44 million metric tons, slightly down from previous estimates. While this is below projected demand, ample carryover stocks are expected to fill the shortfall. Nonetheless, strong early harvests and stable weather in key producers are suppressing price momentum.

The global corn market remains caught between strong U.S. performance and heat risks across southeastern Europe and Ukraine. Market dynamics are further complicated by ongoing EU-Ukraine negotiations over import quotas and the recent U.S.–China trade dialogue, both of which could reshape global corn flows.

The soybean market awaits clarity from both the weather outlook and upcoming U.S. acreage data. While biofuel policy revisions by the EPA for 2026–27 continue to pressure soymeal and crushing economics, robust demand for soyoil in Asia and falling oil stocks are providing some support.

Ukraine’s winter grain outlook has dimmed due to a combination of persistent dryness and shrinking sowing areas. While rapeseed production is expected to increase, lower acreages for corn and sunflower reflect the financial and logistical constraints facing Ukrainian agriculture amid the ongoing conflict.

Ukraine’s proposed export duties on soybeans and rapeseed have sparked controversy. While the measure aims to bolster domestic processing and value-added exports, farmer and exporter groups have expressed concern over potential revenue losses and reduced international competitiveness.

China’s antitrust approval for Bunge’s acquisition of Viterra came with regulatory conditions. Beijing has mandated transparency in pricing and transaction disclosures, aiming to curb market manipulation and protect domestic consumers. The move highlights China’s increasing scrutiny of major agribusiness mergers.

India’s long-awaited monsoon rains have resumed, with forecasts indicating intensified precipitation in the coming weeks. This development is crucial for key grain-producing regions and is expected to support planting efforts, especially for rice and pulses.

Indonesia posted a 43.3% month-on-month increase in palm oil exports during May, largely driven by renewed buying from India, China, and the EU. The surge in palm oil flows may spill over into the soybean complex, especially in the oil segment, as buyers adjust their procurement strategies.

France revised its outlook for 2025 winter barley and rapeseed production upward due to favorable yield prospects. While soft wheat acreage fell slightly below earlier expectations, total planted area remains well above last year, maintaining a steady production outlook for the country's cereal sector.