Wheat

After surging midweek on heat and dryness in Europe and parts of the U.S., wheat futures reversed course on Friday. The July 2025 CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.67¾ per bushel, down 6½ cents. The pullback coincided with the expiration of July options and profit-taking from speculative longs. Despite recent rallies, market sentiment was tempered by USDA export data showing 427,170 metric tons sold for the 2025/26 season—within expectations but 27.6% below last year. Russian officials continue to project robust wheat output (90 MMT) and exports (45 MMT) despite localized drought emergencies. Meanwhile, France’s soft wheat crop conditions declined slightly to 68% good/excellent.

Corn

Corn futures also saw a decline on Friday, with the July 2025 contract settling at $4.28¾ per bushel, down 4¾ cents. Pressure came from a combination of weather-related positioning and the expiration of July options. USDA weekly export data offered some optimism, showing 903,792 MT of 2024/25 corn booked, a 14.2% increase from the previous week and significantly above last year. However, technical selling and lower national average cash prices weighed on sentiment. The 5–10 day weather forecast calls for intense heat across the Corn Belt, especially in the East, adding uncertainty about yield potential.

Soybeans

Soybean futures gave back early-session gains to close lower. The July 2025 contract finished at $10.68 per bushel, down 6¾ cents. Despite hitting the highest front-month prices since May earlier in the day, soybeans slipped under profit-taking pressures and expiring options. USDA data showed strong weekly export sales of 539,511 MT for old crop soybeans, the highest in 14 weeks, with an additional 75,151 MT in new crop bookings. China remained a major driver, importing a record 12.11 MMT from Brazil and 1.63 MMT from the U.S. in May. However, soybean meal and oil markets showed weakness, and uncertainty remains around future demand amid trade concerns.

Global Developments Influencing Grain Markets

Iraq made a notable stride in self-sufficiency by inaugurating a new flour mill in Babel with a 1-million-ton annual capacity. The move could halve the country’s flour imports and shift local wheat demand dynamics.

Persistent dry weather across the U.S. Plains and much of Europe continues to pressure yield outlooks. While Russia officially maintains a high wheat crop forecast, emergency drought declarations in key regions like Krasnodar and Rostov raise risks. Meanwhile, France’s crop ratings are trending downward, supporting bullish sentiment.

Argentina’s corn harvest reached the halfway mark, with yields in several areas surpassing initial expectations. However, wet field conditions following May flooding are slowing progress. Soybean harvesting is nearly complete, and wheat planting is progressing well due to favorable soil moisture.

Ukraine launched its 2025 grain harvest with early barley and pea yields coming in lower than last year. The government warned that adverse weather might reduce total grain production by 10%, casting a shadow over regional supply.

China’s soybean imports hit a historic high in May, totaling 13.92 MMT, with Brazil supplying over 12 MMT. Improved logistics and favorable crushing margins drove the surge, while U.S. shipments also increased significantly. Analysts suggest Q3 imports will remain strong, though Q4 trends hinge on trade relations.

India’s government announced regulatory reforms to improve the quality and traceability of seeds and pesticides. At the same time, rapeseed meal exports to China are booming, reaching a record pace as China seeks alternatives to Canadian suppliers.

Cargill expanded its footprint in Brazil by acquiring a soy crushing and refining facility in Bahia. This strategic move reflects the growing global demand for soymeal and Brazil’s position as a leading supplier.

Brazil declared itself bird flu-free after no new cases emerged in commercial poultry farms, restoring its eligibility to resume global chicken exports. As the world’s largest poultry exporter, this development is vital for stabilizing global meat markets.

In the U.S., ethanol stocks rose 1.6% to 24.12 million barrels, while production slightly dipped. Ethanol blending credits increased, but biodiesel credits declined, possibly affecting biofuel economics in coming months.

Monsoon activity in India remains below normal, particularly in the east and northeast, raising early-season crop concerns. Nonetheless, current weather conditions are favorable for ongoing planting activities, especially for soybeans and rice.

Barge grain shipments on the Mississippi River rose modestly, with soybean shipments jumping over 80% from the prior week. This reflects stronger export activity and improving logistical conditions.

Lastly, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling centralized litigation over small refinery exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Biofuel groups praised the decision for reducing legal uncertainty, which could help stabilize future demand for corn-based ethanol.