Wheat

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July 2025 wheat contract opened Monday at $5.73 per bushel. Market participants entered the week cautiously, balancing concern over ongoing dryness in key producing regions with reports of strong export flows from Russia. Last week’s volatility, driven by Black Sea weather uncertainty and geopolitical instability, set the tone for Monday’s trading. Traders remain attentive to further developments in Russia’s southern regions and upcoming USDA crop condition updates, which could bring additional momentum to wheat prices.

Corn

Corn began the week with the CBOT July 2025 contract priced at $4.32 per bushel. Weather forecasts played a critical role, with high temperatures expected to persist across the Eastern Corn Belt. These conditions may further stress already vulnerable crops, especially in areas where rainfall has been limited. Market attention is also focused on upcoming acreage reports, which are expected to offer clearer direction on U.S. planting progress and production potential. Despite technical headwinds, recent export sales and signs of steady ethanol demand offer a layer of fundamental support.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened Monday at $10.74 per bushel for the July 2025 contract. Price direction continues to be influenced by global demand signals, particularly from China, as well as logistical and biofuel dynamics. Analysts are watching closely for fresh trade announcements and updated oilseed crushing margins, especially in Brazil. Volatility in related markets such as soymeal and soyoil is expected to influence intraday sentiment.

Russia Confirms Aggressive Export Strategy Despite Drought Warnings

Russian exporters remained active at the start of the week, offering wheat cargoes at competitive prices for July and August loading. This comes as official forecasts continue to show 45 million tons of wheat exports for 2025/26, with domestic production projected at 90 million tons. However, field-level reports and satellite imagery continue to reflect concerning drought conditions in southern regions like Krasnodar and Rostov. The discrepancy between official guidance and on-the-ground developments has left traders on alert for a potential downward revision that could reshape global supply flows.

U.S. Weather Patterns Heighten Market Volatility

The U.S. Midwest continues to face an uneven weather pattern, with high temperatures and limited rainfall stressing crops in the Corn Belt. While isolated showers are forecast in the Northern Plains, key producing areas in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio remain dry. Crop conditions due later this week from USDA will be critical in assessing early yield risks, and may prompt hedge fund reallocation across corn and soybean futures.

China Maintains Strong Soybean Import Pace

Chinese buyers have reportedly continued securing soybean shipments for late Q3 delivery. May data confirmed a record import volume of 13.92 million metric tons, with Brazil as the top supplier. The continuation of this trend into June and July would indicate sustained demand amid China’s drive to build domestic reserves and shield itself from future supply disruptions. Analysts believe state-backed procurement strategies remain in effect, creating additional support for global oilseed markets.

Ethanol and Biofuel Markets Show Diverging Trends

U.S. ethanol production figures held near 1.1 million barrels per day last week, but biodiesel credit markets experienced notable weakness. While ethanol credits gained modestly, biodiesel margins came under pressure due to lower blending incentives. These divergent trends may have downstream effects on corn and soybean oil demand, respectively, and could influence planting decisions in the next cycle.

Black Sea Shipping Under Scrutiny Amid Turkey’s Transit Fee Hike

Turkey’s planned 15% increase in Bosphorus transit fees, effective July 1, continues to draw concern among Black Sea exporters. The policy shift is expected to raise shipping costs and redirect some grain cargoes toward alternative ports in Romania and Bulgaria. This development reinforces the strategic importance of Danube infrastructure and could affect competitiveness for Ukrainian and Russian exporters relying on Istanbul’s gateway.

Ukrainian Harvest Starts with Mixed Sentiment

Ukraine began its grain harvest last week, with initial yields for barley and peas coming in below last year’s levels. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy cautioned that adverse weather could reduce overall production by up to 10% compared to 2024. With new EU tariffs and quotas in place, Ukrainian exporters face a challenging landscape, though demand from neighboring Black Sea countries may partially offset EU market losses.

Indian Oilseed Exports Strengthen Amid Regulatory Overhaul

India continued to expand its presence in the oilseed byproducts market, with rapeseed meal exports to China reaching record levels. This momentum is bolstered by recent regulatory changes improving seed traceability and pesticide standards. The move is seen as an effort to align India’s agricultural standards with international market expectations, particularly as China looks to diversify away from traditional suppliers like Canada.

France Faces Heat Stress on Wheat Crop

France’s soft wheat crop continues to show signs of stress due to prolonged heat and limited rainfall. Last week, crop condition ratings fell from 70% to 68% good-to-excellent, according to FranceAgriMer. With the European grain market already sensitive to export competition from Russia, any further deterioration in French wheat output may offer price support on the continent.

Brazil Strengthens Processing Capabilities for Global Soy Trade

Cargill’s recent acquisition of a soy crushing and refining plant in Bahia has strengthened Brazil’s positioning in the global protein supply chain. With over a third of the world’s soybean exports and growing demand from Asia and the Middle East, Brazil is evolving from a raw commodity supplier to a value-added processing hub. This transition could reshape competition dynamics with the U.S., particularly in refined product exports.

New Infrastructure Boosts Iraq’s Domestic Wheat Processing

Iraq’s launch of a one-million-ton flour milling facility in Babel province is expected to reduce wheat import requirements by up to $750 million annually. This internal capacity expansion not only reduces reliance on traditional exporters like Australia and Russia but also reshapes regional demand forecasts, especially for high-quality milling wheat.

India’s Weak Monsoon Onset Raises Crop Concerns

Monsoon activity in India has been below seasonal averages, particularly in the eastern and northeastern states. Though not yet critical, these early patterns may delay the planting of rice and soybeans. A prolonged shortfall could impact India’s grain balance and export availability, especially for rice, which is a key regional staple.

Traders Brace for Key USDA Reports and Macroeconomic Developments

With July options expiry completed and new USDA acreage and crop condition reports on the horizon, traders are bracing for a pivotal week. Macro indicators including inflation data and potential interest rate developments in the U.S. and Europe may also play a role in grain futures movement, as currency shifts impact trade competitiveness and import costs.