Market Overview – Friday Opening Snapshot (Chicago Board of Trade – 2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat for September 2025 opened Friday at $5.38 per bushel, down 3½ cents after Thursday’s modest gains. The wheat market is mixed, with winter wheat contracts lower while spring wheat edges higher. Despite USDA’s strong weekly export report, showing a marketing-year high of 712,179 metric tons (led by Indonesia), traders reacted cautiously to North Dakota crop tour results. Yields there were pegged at 49.0 bushels per acre—below last year's 54.5 bpa but above the 5-year average—indicating underlying supply concerns. Further support may come from French harvest progress and recent U.S. export activity, including a Friday morning purchase of 85,200 MT of wheat by a South Korean importer.

Corn

Corn futures began the day on softer footing, with the September 2025 contract opening at $3.99 per bushel, down 2¾ cents. This follows Thursday’s upward move of 3¼ cents. The USDA confirmed two large export deals, including 135,000 MT to South Korea and 284,196 MT to unknown destinations. Weekly corn export sales stood at 643,060 MT—nearly double last year’s equivalent week—reinforcing strong demand. Still, global traders remain cautious due to persistent weather uncertainty in the Midwest, despite improved new crop sales figures totaling 733,939 MT.

Soybeans

August 2025 soybean contracts opened at $9.97¼ per bushel, a decline of 7 cents, deepening the week’s downward trend. Thursday's session ended slightly lower by 1½ cents. Export sales for the old crop came in at 160,872 MT—sharply lower from the prior week but still significantly above year-ago levels. New crop sales reached 238,816 MT, a 4-week low. While soyoil prices firmed (up 37–53 points), soymeal futures slipped again. Despite current softness, robust Chinese demand and global logistics developments continue to frame soybean price outlooks.

Global Market Drivers

Australia’s Wheat Crop Still Under Pressure Despite Rainfall

Recent rains have improved crop conditions across Western Australia, yet agronomists report the moisture was insufficient to reverse long-term dryness. The country’s wheat output is still forecast to fall 10% to 30.6 million tons, according to ABARES. This could tighten global wheat availability, especially for Asian buyers like China, which is dealing with its own reduced wheat output.

EU Slashes Grain Outlook as Corn and Wheat Forecasts Fall

The European Commission trimmed its total grain production forecast for 2025–26 to 278.4 million tons, down from 282.9 million. Corn output was notably reduced from 64.6 million to 60.1 million tons. Wheat projections were also scaled back. The move adds pressure to already strained global corn supplies and heightens volatility in the coming weeks.

French Harvest Accelerates, But Corn Conditions Deteriorate

FranceAgriMer reported that 86% of the country’s soft-wheat crop had been harvested as of July 21. However, heat and dryness have hit corn fields hard. Recent rains could bring some relief, but the damage already inflicted may have lasting effects on crop quality and availability.

Russia Suspends Sunflower Oil Export Duty to Boost Trade

Russia has suspended its floating export duties on sunflower oil and meal to stimulate exports and support domestic processors. The move could flood international markets with Russian oilseed products, creating downward pressure on sunflower oil prices and affecting vegetable oil dynamics globally.

Palm Oil Sector Faces Diverging Trends Between Indonesia and Malaysia

Malaysia projects palm oil production to edge up to 19.5 million tons in 2025, while Indonesia expects output to rise to 50 million tons. However, Indonesia's exports could fall by 5% due to higher domestic biodiesel usage. Malaysia's sales to the U.S. may come under pressure as Indonesia regains market share, influenced by possible tariff reductions.

U.S. Midwest and Plains Weather Still a Mixed Bag

While the Northern Plains benefit from heavy rains improving soil moisture, the Central and Southern Plains face escalating heat and dryness. The Midwest experiences a stalled front and potential heat stress in drier regions, raising concerns for corn and soybean development as August approaches.

USDA Highlights Drought in Canadian Wheat Areas

A USDA attaché report reveals “sub-par” wheat conditions across Canada's Prairie Provinces, with drought being the central concern. Although total production is forecast at 35.15 million tons, tight carryout stocks and poor crop recovery could exacerbate global supply issues, especially for durum wheat.

Ukraine Grain Unions Push Back Against Oilseed Export Duties

Ukraine’s leading ag unions urged President Zelenskiy to veto new export duties on rapeseed and soybeans, arguing they would hurt small and medium farmers and violate EU agreements. As Ukraine is a key supplier of these crops to the European market, this policy uncertainty adds to the volatility surrounding oilseed trade from the Black Sea region.