Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 settled Thursday at $5.19½/bu, down 2½¢, as softness persisted despite firmer KC. Traders noted fresh September CBOT deliveries and a sharp jump in preliminary open interest, while monthly Census data showed July wheat exports at 2.305 MMT, the highest for July in five years—supportive, but not enough to flip the tape into the close. Export sales are delayed to Friday in the holiday-shortened week.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 corn closed at $4.19¾/bu, up 1¾¢, clawing back from early pressure as the cmdtyView national cash gauge edged to $3.75¼ and EIA reported weekly ethanol output at 1.075m b/d with stocks 22.564m bbl. July Census shipments printed 6.224 MMT—the second-largest July on record—while a producer survey trimmed yield to 186.9 bpa and production to 16.577 bbu.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 soybeans settled at $10.33/bu, up 1½¢, with product mixed into the bell. July Census soy exports reached 1.751 MMT (three-year July high), soymeal exports hit a record 1.392 MMT, and soyoil shipments slipped to 28,583 MT. A producer survey put soy yield at 53.2 bpa and production at 4.257 bbu, keeping rallies contained.

Germany set the tone in Europe as the farm ministry projected winter-wheat up 26.3% to 22.45 MMT and total grains near 44.73 MMT, with early quality checks showing ~12% protein and rapeseed up ~9.4% to ~3.96 MMT—a package that improves EU supply optics and edible-oil balance heading into autumn.

Australia added to the supply cushion after lifting 2025/26 wheat to 32.3 MMT (+7.3%), citing July–August rains and satellite indicators near or above median across New South Wales, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland; near-normal Sep–Nov weather would keep FOB competition brisk.

Weather kept markets edgy: another strong front in the Northern Plains ushers in cold air and possible frosts into the weekend, while the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest face back-to-back systems with showers and well-below-normal temperatures. Europe remains unsettled with repeated rains aiding immature summer crops and soil prep for winter wheat, but the Black Sea stays comparatively dry—an issue for late-season finishes and the start of winter-wheat planting later this month.

Energy linkages mattered for corn as the market digested U.S. ethanol output at 1.075m b/d and slightly higher stocks, a combo that can tug nearby basis and processor margins as harvest ramps; Census also flagged record July ethanol exports (164.38m gal), underlining resilient offtake.

Trade lanes stayed busy: U.S. corn exports for 2024/25 at 72.75 MMT were the highest on record, with the Big Five buyers taking 76% and outstanding 2025/26 sales at 18.78 MMT as of Aug 21; Vietnam emerged with 1.3 MMT in 2024/25 and 277.5k t already booked for 2025/26, pointing to sustained demand into the new year.

Competition will be fierce. Brazil and Argentina expanded corn shipments to Africa and the Middle East; assuming normal production, 2025/26 exports are seen at 40.0 MMT and 36.5 MMT, respectively. Tight supply in Ukraine saw August corn exports slide to 239k t, with 20.5 MMT projected for 2024/25 and 22.81 MMT for 2025/26.

Oilseed currents were mixed: Malaysian palm firmed modestly overnight, China’s NOV ’25 boards showed soybeans slightly higher/soyoil mixed, and U.S. registrations plus preliminary open interest rose in the veg-oil complex; together with July’s record soymeal exports, these signals keep crush margins and spreads in focus.

Inputs steadied in Brazil ahead of India’s urea tender, with urea around $455/mt CFR inside last week’s band, ammonium sulfate $175–$180/mt, MAP $710–$730/mt, and potash $345–$355/mt—price action that subtly improves growers’ cost curves into the planting window. Meanwhile in Ukraine, late-August rains ended a prolonged dry spell and enabled soil prep, with 377,100 ha of winter rapeseed (33.8% of plan) already sown and winter wheat set to follow.