Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 started Thursday around $5.16¼/bu, with the complex still digesting fresh September deliveries and a jump in open interest. Midweek strength in HRW couldn’t flip SRW momentum, and traders leaned on export sales later in the week to reset direction, with early-week LSEG maps flagging 1–2 inches for parts of the Southern Plains—context that kept rallies capped by hedge flow.

Corn

Chicago Dec ’25 began Thursday near $4.17¾/bu, fractionally softer as the market eyed the weekly ethanol print and a crop still rated high but slipping in spots. National cash hovered in the $3.74–$3.75 zone, while producer and private-survey yields clustered near the upper-180s bpa, keeping attention on whether early frosts in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest would shave late fill.

Soybeans

Chicago Nov ’25 opened Thursday around $10.25½/bu, softer after a midweek slide as condition ratings eased and additional September deliveries hit the tape. With China still largely absent from U.S. new-crop purchases and crushers watching product spreads, sentiment stayed guarded into the morning bell despite firming veg-oil differentials.

Global drivers shaping today’s session

Canada put real money behind biofuels and canola, pledging C$370 million in production incentives and promising a regulatory overhaul to close the policy gap with the U.S. The move aims to buttress renewable diesel feedstocks—where canola oil is pivotal—amid trade frictions that have raised China duties on Canadian seed and complicated cross-border flows.

Macro tape and positioning point to a market braced for catalysts. Overnight, soybeans and soyoil firmed alongside Malaysian palm, while SRW was steady and corn a touch lower; year-to-date nearby moves show SRW −9.2%, corn −13.4%, and soyoil +27.1%. Exchange data showed sizable rises in open interest across corn, soybeans and soyoil—evidence of active hedging into this week’s reports and weather turns.

Weather is the swing factor. The Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest caught frost over the weekend, potentially nicking corn/soy in spots; more frosts fade from the forecast after Monday, but cool, mostly dry conditions hold for 5–7 days before warming returns. Europe stays wet—helpful for immature summer crops and winter-wheat seedbeds—while the Black Sea remains comparatively dry, a poor finish for late corn and a shaky launchpad for winter wheat plantings. Canada’s Prairies run warm/dry to speed harvest but offer little moisture relief.

China stayed front and center. August soybean imports hit a record for the month at 12.28 MMT, up y/y and m/m, as crushers leaned hard on South American supply amid slow U.S.–China talks; Jan–Aug inflows reached 73.31 MMT (+4% y/y). Forward signals point to a seasonal slowdown in arrivals, but any further stall in trade negotiations could tighten near-term supply optics and support price.

U.S. export sales painted a mixed demand map. For the week ended Aug 28, Mexico topped corn net buyers at 708k t, Nigeria led wheat at 117k t, while pork/beef sales showed Mexico and Japan as standouts—cross-commodity demand that often ripples into feed grains and meal. Separately, USDA weekly tallies showed new-crop corn sales >2.1 MMT and soybeans ~0.82 MMT, with China still on the sidelines for U.S. new-crop beans.

Brazil’s internal grains pulse was firm. CEPEA reported August soybean exports at 9.33 MMT (a record for the month) and stronger premiums as export pace and a firmer USD/BRL boosted competitiveness; spot soy indices at Paranaguá and Paraná ticked higher w/w. In corn, sellers limited spot supply while export parity improved and shipments accelerated, underpinning domestic quotes even as local end-user demand stayed cautious.

Black Sea signals were two-sided. Russia reported 7 MMT of grain exports since early July and plans ~33 MMT in H2, while APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s 2025 harvest to 58.8 MMT (wheat 21.9, corn 30.3) and exports to 41.9 MMT on better yields. Yet Ukraine’s new 10% duty on rapeseed/soy exports effectively halted shipments pending clearer documentation rules, creating short-term dislocations in regional veg-oil and meal flows.

Policy frictions extended beyond grains. China pushed its final ruling in the canola dispute to March 9, 2026, keeping 75.8% provisional duties in place and signaling room for negotiation as Canada rolls out biofuels and canola aid; separately, Beijing criticized a proposed U.S. EPA tweak that would halve credits for renewable diesel made from imported feedstocks, aligning—for once—Chinese agencies with Big Oil and U.S. import-reliant refiners against the rule.

Private-sector crop math nudged expectations. S&P Global pegs U.S. 2025 yields at 189.1 bpa for corn (production 16.77 bbu) and 53.8 bpa for soybeans (production 4.306 bbu), a hair above USDA’s August baselines, with an update due September 12. Early Brazilian signals show 2025/26 soybean forward sales at 20.5%, below average, while fieldwork is just starting in the south and central rains could trigger earlier-than-normal planting if they stick.