Wheat

Chicago wheat futures closed higher on Tuesday, clawing back part of Monday’s losses as short covering met solid export demand. December 2025 CBOT SRW settled at $5.27¼ per bushel, up 5 cents on the day, while KC HRW gained 5–6 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat rallied more strongly, with December up 12¼ cents and other months 4–5 cents firmer. The bounce came against a backdrop of still-comfortable global supplies: US winter wheat planting stands at 97% complete with 87% emerged and 48% of the crop rated good-to-excellent, three points better than last week but still below last year. Export momentum remains a supportive counterweight, with weekly inspections at 474,530 tons—more than 92% above the prior week and nearly 30% higher than the same week last year—lifting cumulative shipments to 12.84 million tons, 19.65% ahead of last season. Managed money remains heavily net short, adding over 14,000 contracts to their Chicago wheat short to reach 111,743 lots as of mid-October, underlining how dependent rallies remain on short-covering bursts rather than a structural bullish shift.

Corn

Corn futures finished Tuesday’s session little changed, but with some carry being rebuilt along the curve. December 2025 CBOT corn closed at $4.23½ per bushel, down just ¼ cent, while deferred contracts added around 2½ cents as spreads widened modestly. The national US cmdtyView cash corn index ticked up by ¼ cent to $3.88 per bushel, signalling stable but unspectacular physical demand. Weekly export sales in the delayed report for the week of 9 October reached 1.327 million tons, in the middle of trade expectations but marking a four-week low and coming in below the same week last year. At the same time, cumulative export shipments remain robust, with inspections for the week of 20 November at 1.632 million tons—more than 61% above last year’s comparable week—and marketing-year exports now 72% ahead of the prior season. Speculative positioning turned more bearish in the latest CFTC snapshot, with managed money expanding its net short to 191,055 corn contracts after adding just over 49,000 lots during the reporting week, leaving the market vulnerable to any surprise in weather or policy that might force shorts to adjust.

Soybeans

Soybean futures managed a modestly firmer close on Tuesday, stabilising after recent weakness in export flows. January 2026 CBOT soybeans settled at $11.24¾ per bushel, up 1½ cents on the day, while the US cmdtyView national cash bean index gained 1¾ cents to $10.52¼ per bushel. Soymeal futures advanced by $1.70 to $2.80 across nearby contracts and soyoil finished steady to 13 points higher, reflecting a slightly more constructive tone across the soy complex. Weekly export sales data for the delayed week of 9 October showed soybean bookings of 785,003 tons, on the lower half of the 0.5–1.4 million ton trade range and almost 54% below the same week last year, underscoring how far current demand still lags typical seasonal levels. Speculators remain only marginally net short, with the managed money net position at just 391 contracts as of mid-October, suggesting positioning is comparatively light and leaving ample room for flows to swing in either direction as news on China and South American weather unfolds. ANEC’s latest forecast trimming November Brazilian soybean exports to 4.4 million tons, down 0.31 million from the prior estimate, added a subtle note of support as the market weighs future availability against still-ample projected South American output.

Global Market Drivers and Key Headlines

One of the central macro stories shaping sentiment is the visible restart of US–China grain and oilseed flows. Shipping schedules show two vessels—Ocean Harvest and Tokugawa—heading to US Gulf terminals near New Orleans to load the first US soybean cargoes bound for China since May, while a third vessel, Bungo Queen, is en route to a Texas Gulf terminal to take on sorghum for China, marking the first US sorghum shipment to the country since mid-March. In total, China has booked nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans and a smaller volume of wheat since presidents Trump and Xi met in South Korea in late October, when Washington said Beijing had agreed to buy 12 million tons of soybeans by year end, though Beijing has yet to formally confirm the commitment. The prospect of a formalised deal within weeks, reiterated by US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, is helping to anchor soybean sentiment even as near-term export data remain soft.

Broader futures and options dynamics point to a market still digesting recent moves and rebalancing positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Overnight price action showed wheat a couple of cents higher in both SRW and HRW, corn up 2 cents and soybeans up 2¼ cents, with soymeal firmer and soyoil slightly lower. For the week so far, SRW and HRW wheat remain modestly lower, corn is up a cent and soybeans are up three-quarters of a cent, while month-to-date performance continues to show wheat under pressure and soybeans in positive territory. Year-to-date, nearby wheat contracts remain down 4.2–8.7%, corn is off 7.3%, whereas soybeans, soymeal and soyoil are up 12.8%, 3.5% and 25.5% respectively, highlighting how much relative value has shifted toward the oilseed complex. Open interest changes as of 24 November—sharp declines in SRW, HRW, corn and soyoil, with only modest gains in soybeans—suggest that recent selling has involved significant liquidation rather than aggressive fresh shorting, leaving positioning somewhat cleaner going into a potentially weather-sensitive December.

Weather remains a central risk driver, particularly in South America, where patterns are increasingly split between wetter northern zones and drying southern belts. Forecasts call for continued scattered showers through Friday across Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goiás, maintaining near-normal temperatures and generally supportive soil moisture for soy and first-crop corn. In contrast, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are expected to be mostly dry from Tuesday through Friday, with only temperature variability, reinforcing concerns that drought risks will continue to build in southern Brazil. Across Argentina’s core regions—Córdoba, Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires, La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires—conditions are projected to remain mostly dry through Wednesday, with only isolated showers Thursday and more meaningful scattered showers Friday, while temperatures run above normal until late in the week. Paraguay is also forecast to see intensifying dryness over the coming fortnight, representing a downside risk for both corn and soybean production if rains fail to return in time.

US export inspection data provided a nuanced picture of near-term demand. For the week ending 20 November, the United States inspected 1.632 million tons of corn, 799,000 tons of soybeans and 475,000 tons of wheat for export. Corn inspections were down from 2.066 million tons the prior week but remained a strong 61.8% above the same week last year, reflecting robust Mexican and Asian buying, with Mexico the top destination. Soybean inspections fell sharply from 1.205 million tons the previous week and an exceptionally strong 2.12 million tons a year earlier, marking the lowest volume for this seasonal week since 2006 and keeping marketing-year exports 44.5% behind last year’s pace. Wheat inspections, by contrast, almost doubled week-on-week and outpaced last year, with the Philippines, Bangladesh and Mexico leading the tally, contributing to the strong year-on-year export performance that has partially offset the weight of large global production.

China’s shifting role in the global vegetable oil trade is another key storyline. With domestic demand for soybean oil sluggish amid a cooler macroeconomy and reduced restaurant traffic, Chinese crushers are exporting surplus soyoil, particularly to India. October shipments reached a record 70,877 tons—almost all destined for India—bringing Chinese soyoil exports for the first ten months of the year to 329,000 tons, almost three times the total for all of 2024. Commercial stocks have swelled to more than 1 million tons, a seven-year seasonal high, and Chinese crushers are expected to maintain high run rates due to strong bean imports from South America and renewed US purchases. For India, this new trade lane is highly attractive: Chinese soyoil arrives in 10–12 days versus 50–60 days from Brazil or Argentina and trades at a $10–15 per ton discount to South American supplies, making China a competitive and increasingly important third-largest supplier in the coming months.

On the policy front, markets continue to watch for a long-promised US farm aid package and a formalised framework for Chinese soybean purchases. Secretary Rollins reiterated that the administration intends to unveil farmer support measures within one to two weeks, amid mounting pressure from the American Farm Bureau Federation, which has warned that aid is “urgently needed” to offset low commodity prices, high input costs and the lingering impact of past trade disputes. The same timeframe is being flagged for finalising the 12-million-ton soybean deal with China, after Beijing reportedly purchased nearly 1.6 million tons of US soybeans over three days last week—the largest weekly tally in two years. While any confirmed package and signed purchase commitments would likely be supportive for sentiment in the short term, traders remain wary of the timing of actual shipments and whether political promises will translate into sustained, commercially driven demand.

In the Black Sea and European regions, crop and weather developments remain broadly supportive but carry pockets of risk. Ukraine’s economy ministry reported that winter sowing for the 2026 harvest is 98.1% complete at 6.4 million hectares, with forecasters noting that November’s predominantly warm, moist conditions have been favourable for winter crop emergence and early development, particularly in southern, central and eastern regions where soil moisture has improved significantly. Elsewhere in Europe, however, MARS highlighted that dry conditions in central Italy, eastern Hungary and western Romania and excessive rainfall in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria have delayed local winter crop sowing. A milder autumn has left winter hardening less advanced than last year, increasing potential vulnerability to frost where low temperatures arrive before adequate crop development, and adding another layer of uncertainty to EU grain prospects going into winter.

Russian and Brazilian developments continue to exert pressure on global wheat pricing and trade flows. SovEcon reported that Russian farmers sold grain at a record pace in September and October—11 million tons and 9.3 million tons respectively—as squeezed margins, lower profits and export restrictions forced producers to liquidate stocks to repay loans and cover winter planting costs. Domestic prices have continued to slip, with 12.5% protein wheat down 7% since August and sunflower seed prices 2% below their early-season peak, and pre-tax income for grain and oilseed producers down 25% year-on-year in the January–August period. In Brazil, CEPEA data show domestic wheat prices stable in Rio Grande do Sul but higher in other states, with currency movements—particularly the 1.85% rise in the dollar against the real—offsetting abundant local supply. At the same time, Brazilian wheat imports remain brisk, with November purchases on track to reach around 527,600 tons, 24% more than a year earlier, underlining how currency, logistics and quality considerations can keep import channels active even in a year of strong domestic production.

Finally, protein markets in Asia are contributing to a shifting demand backdrop for feed grains. China has extended its anti-dumping probe into beef imports by another two months, pushing the review deadline to 26 January 2026 and giving major exporters such as Argentina, Australia and Brazil a little more breathing room before any potential trade measures are announced. The extension comes as China’s beef sector battles a domestic supply glut and as authorities step up policy support for both beef cattle and dairy cows, aiming to stabilise and then expand production after a difficult period. Beef prices have held steady at around 25.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 23.7 yuan a year earlier, while beef imports for January–October 2025 are up 2.8% year-on-year at 2.41 million tons. The outcome of the probe, together with evolving Chinese demand trends, will help determine how much feed grain and oilseed demand ultimately flows through the global protein supply chain over the coming year.