Wheat

Wheat futures closed Wednesday with noticeable strength across all three U.S. exchanges, helped by pre-holiday positioning, export demand and continued adjustments in speculative flows. Chicago December 2025 SRW finished at $5.32¼ per bushel, up 5 cents on the day, while KC HRW added between 3 and 7 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat gained 4 to 5 cents, with the December contract trading 16 cents higher at one point. Traders reacted to updated Commitment of Traders data showing managed money expanding net shorts to 111,743 Chicago contracts and 67,704 in KC, reinforcing how rallies continue to rely heavily on short-covering. Additional support came from fresh international demand, as a South Korean tender secured 91,300 tons of U.S. wheat and 40,000 tons from Canada. The broader backdrop remains shaped by steady global production prospects, but market tone firmed as the holiday break approached.

Corn

Corn futures climbed confidently into the Thanksgiving holiday, with December 2025 closing at $4.30¾ per bushel, up 7¼ cents, as the market responded to bullish ethanol data and short-term technical momentum. The U.S. cmdtyView national cash corn index edged up to $3.88 per bushel, signalling firm underlying physical sentiment. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol output rising by 22,000 barrels per day to 1.113 million bpd—a level near record highs—while stocks dropped by 339,000 barrels to 21.968 million, confirming strong domestic processing demand. Speculative positioning remains distinctly bearish, with managed money net short at 191,055 contracts as of mid-October, leaving corn sensitive to any supply shock or export development. As first-notice day for December futures approaches, short-term carry and winter weather expectations continue to guide positioning.

Soybeans

Soybean futures strengthened for a second day, with January 2026 closing at $11.33¼ per bushel, up 8½ cents, supported by renewed Chinese buying interest and a firmer tone across the soy complex. The national U.S. cash bean index rose to $10.61½ per bushel, while soymeal and soyoil traded higher, with oil up 38–41 points. Wire reports indicate that China purchased another batch of roughly ten U.S. soybean cargoes for January shipment late on Tuesday, continuing a surge in buying after the Trump–Xi call and widening trade thaw. USDA did not issue a flash sale confirmation, but sentiment remained upbeat. Managed money remains only slightly net short in soybeans—391 contracts as of mid-October—allowing price action to respond quickly to weather shifts and international buying patterns.

Global Market Drivers

One of the strongest forces shaping Wednesday’s sentiment came from China’s intensified U.S. soybean purchases. Traders confirmed at least ten cargoes—potentially more—were booked for January shipment from both Gulf and Pacific Northwest terminals, boosting market expectations that the late-October trade framework is finally materialising. China has now secured nearly 2 million tons of U.S. soy since the Trump–Xi meeting. Despite U.S. soybeans being priced higher than Brazilian cargoes, Chinese state-run buyers such as COFCO appear determined to accelerate purchases, aligning with the U.S. Treasury’s assertion that China is “right on schedule” to meet long-term commitments totalling 87.5 million tons over the next three and a half years.

Weather continued to drive volatility across regions, with sharply contrasting patterns between northern and southern Brazil. Central and northern areas are benefiting from recurring showers and favourable temperatures, maintaining healthy soil moisture for soybeans and first-crop corn. In the south, however—particularly Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná—rainfall deficits remain troubling, with models projecting mostly dry conditions through Friday. Argentina’s core agricultural belt is also turning drier, despite currently high soil moisture reserves. Forecasts suggest temperatures will remain above normal until late week, adding risk if rains fail to return on schedule. Paraguay faces a rising threat of expanding dryness over the next two weeks, posing a downside risk to both soybean and corn yield prospects.

Export data added another layer of complexity. For the week ending 20 November, U.S. corn inspections reached 1.632 million tons, a strong figure and more than 61% above the same week last year, driven by solid demand from Mexico and Asian buyers. Soybean inspections, however, dropped sharply to 799,000 tons—the lowest for this seasonal week since 2006—highlighting the recent lull in shipments even as new Chinese sales pick up on paper. Wheat inspections nearly doubled from the previous week to 475,000 tons, outpacing last year and reinforcing the improving export momentum that has helped counterbalance heavy global supply.

India’s outlook for 2025–26 monsoon-season crops contributed to the broader supply narrative, as the government projected monsoon-sown food grain production at 173.3 million tons, up 3.87 million from last year. Estimated rice output rose to 124.5 million tons, with corn production expected to climb to 28.3 million tons and oilseeds reaching 27.56 million. Ample monsoon rainfall underpins this optimism, suggesting a stable supply contribution to the global balance sheet heading into next season.

Ukraine continued to face severe logistical constraints tied to Russian attacks on railways, locomotives and power substations. Moisture-laden corn requiring extensive drying has already slowed harvesting, but transport challenges have cut November corn exports from 2.5 million tons last year to just 1.3 million tons so far, with December shipments expected to fall year-on-year as well. Delivery times from central regions to ports have ballooned to as much as six weeks, underscoring the fragility of Ukraine’s export infrastructure.

Fresh production updates from South America offered mixed signals. Brazil’s soybean crop outlook remains steady at 178.3 million tons, according to LSEG, with 78% of sowing completed as of 22 November—slightly behind last year but ahead of the five-year average. Meanwhile, Brazil’s November exports were revised down: soybeans to 4.40 million tons, soymeal to 2.50 million tons and corn to 6.11 million tons. In Argentina, wheat production was raised 8% to 21 million tons, though excess rainfall is delaying harvest progress. Australia’s wheat outlook also improved, rising 2.3% to 35.6 million tons, supported by strong vegetation indices and favourable late-season weather.

Biofuel policy developments added a final macro layer. Brazil announced that regulatory barriers affecting U.S. biofuel imports under the RenovaBio program are now “practically resolved.” A mid-June policy shift allowing foreign exporters to obtain certification directly has already levelled the competitive landscape, likely improving U.S. export prospects into Brazil.