Wheat

CBOT soft red wheat Dec ’25 settled at $5.14¾/bu, up 5½¢ on Thursday, with KC HRW up 3–4¢ and Minneapolis spring reclaiming 3–4¢. Strength bled over from the broader grains rally and a fresh Saudi tender for 420,000 t of hard wheat kept export tone in focus even as weekly U.S. export-sales reporting remained paused. Nearby spread action tracked fieldwork-friendly U.S. weather that still features localized showers in parts of the Plains, while open interest earlier in the week had surged in SRW as funds rebuilt exposure.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn closed at $4.21¾/bu, up 5¼¢ on the day, with the national cash index also firmer. Traders leaned into the bid despite softer DOE/EIA ethanol statistics, looking through near-term grind headwinds toward October’s harvest price discovery and weather windows. Talk of modest yield trims from private forecasters and the prospect of light rains slowing pockets of harvest in the ECB helped support the board into the bell.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 soybeans finished at $10.23¾/bu, up 10¾¢, extending Wednesday’s strength as meal and oil both advanced and U.S. biodiesel pull remained constructive. Policy chatter around potential producer aid added a layer of support, while private estimates edged yield lower versus last month. Export optimism stayed tempered by China’s preference for South American origin in the near term, keeping a cap on Gulf basis outperformance despite the green close.

The immediate macro driver remains data darkness. USDA confirmed the WASDE report is suspended “until further notice” because of the federal funding lapse, and the weekly export-sales report is also delayed. Without benchmark S&D tables and fresh sales confirmations, markets are leaning more on private estimates, weather signals and physical-flow reads, which can amplify volatility when official reporting resumes.

Energy and processing cues fed back into grains. The DOE reported ethanol stocks down 3% to 22.764 million bbl and production at 995k bpd, both below expectations—modestly negative for corn grind sentiment even as futures rallied on broader flows and harvest-timing considerations. On the veg-oil side, firmness in palm oil and ongoing U.S. biodiesel draw continued to underpin soyoil, cushioning the bean complex against export-related uncertainty.

Private crop analytics reset U.S. baselines. StoneX trimmed U.S. corn yield to 185.9 bpa and lifted production to 16.737 bbu on acreage, while raising soybean yield to 53.9 bpa and production to 4.326 bbu. S&P Global likewise cut corn yield to 185.5 bpa with output at 16.707 bbu, and marked soybean yield at 53.0 bpa with production 4.261 bbu. With WASDE sidelined, these numbers carry extra sway for curve shape and inter-commodity spreads.

Trade policy headlines stayed a swing factor for soy. Washington signaled soybeans will be a central topic in talks with Beijing in four weeks, yet officials cautioned sales are not “imminent,” noting China’s continued lean toward South American supply. Any credible signal of stepped-up Chinese buying of U.S. beans would quickly echo through Gulf basis and Nov/Jan spreads.

China is also rewiring oilseed-meal sourcing. After imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil, Chinese buyers booked about 52,000 t of Indian rapeseed meal over three weeks—roughly 4× 2024’s total intake from India—at CIF $220–$235/t. If sustained, this pivot could pressure regional meal premia and ripple into soymeal and sunflower-meal flows across Asia.

The Black Sea added a structural wheat input as Ukraine lifted its winter-wheat area projection by 9% to at least 5.2 M ha for the 2026 harvest, redirecting land from drought-hit corn and sunflower. Assuming logistics hold, greater winter-wheat resilience and export potential are a medium-term bearish weight on global wheat values.

South America is in flux. Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production is projected up 8.4% y/y to 54.2 MMT on stronger profitability, permanent cuts to export levies (corn to 9.5%), and better management of leafhopper-borne spiroplasma, while soybean output is seen at 47.4 MMT, lower on acreage shifts and a La Niña-skewed Dec–Feb risk profile. These cross-currents reprice Atlantic FOBs and basis, directly competing with U.S. offers.

Weather remained market-moving across key belts. Central Brazil stayed too dry for reliable early soy stand establishment until mid-October rains, while southern Brazil saw timely moisture; Argentina held decent soil reserves with more fronts due; the U.S. Midwest and Plains were warm and mostly dry into a weekend front that could disrupt harvest but aid winter-wheat establishment; Europe faced a windy, wet system except Spain; Ukraine gained rainfall while southwestern Russia stayed dry; Australia’s drier stretch threatened wheat/canola during reproduction and fill. These patterns steered basis, spreads and optional-origin switches into the close.

A peripheral but noteworthy livestock headline saw Mexico’s screwworm cases up ~32% m/m and moving north, sustaining U.S. restrictions on Mexican cattle imports. While indirect for grains, persistent disruptions in protein and feed chains can feed back into U.S. corn and soymeal demand and hedging behavior.

Overnight commodity cues added texture to risk-taking. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.41% while China’s exchanges were shut for holidays, thinning Asian liquidity and occasionally accentuating price swings in veg-oils and linked crush products. Registration changes were minimal and nearby futures’ YTD scorecard remained mixed, with soyoil up sharply on the year versus weaker cereals.