Wheat

Wheat opened the week with cautious firmness but limited upside momentum. December ’25 CBOT wheat futures closed Friday at $5.03¾/bu, up 1¼ cents, before softening slightly by a penny in early Monday trade. Kansas City contracts added 2–3 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat slipped fractionally. Sentiment balanced a drier outlook in the U.S. Southern Plains, which supports planting progress but raises concerns about soil reserves ahead of winter, against heavier rain expectations across soft red winter wheat areas. FranceAgriMer reported that 27% of France’s soft wheat crop had been planted by October 13, well ahead of last year’s pace, while Argentina’s crop was pegged at 22 MMT, with 90% rated good to excellent. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat exports have reached 5.6 MMT since July, down 21% year-on-year, reflecting shifting competitiveness across the Black Sea. Algeria’s tender confirmed 400,000 MT of wheat purchases, keeping global demand steady but selective.

Corn

Corn steadied to open Monday trade after holding gains into the weekend. December ’25 CBOT corn closed Friday at $4.22½/bu, up ¾ cent, with October’s average so far at $4.18, below February’s $4.70 but higher than last year’s harvest figure of $4.16. U.S. national cash corn prices lifted to $3.81½, with open interest down by more than 7,200 contracts on Friday. Harvest continued across the Western Corn Belt, though wetter weather in the east is expected to slow progress and add pressure to logistics. In Brazil, first-corn planting is estimated at 51% in the south-central region, ahead of last year’s pace of 48%. Export activity continues firm, with Brazilian ports reporting price gains of 2–3.8% last week, supported by a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, Romania’s FOB Constanța corn price rose $5/mt to $223/mt, reflecting demand from EU buyers and harvest delays in Ukraine, while Bulgaria edges closer to net importer status.

Soybeans

Soybeans began Monday on firmer footing, adding 8–10 cents after a bullish close to last week. November ’25 CBOT futures ended Friday at $10.19½/bu, up 8¾ cents, with the monthly average so far at $10.16. Cash soybean prices gained to $9.45½, while soymeal futures added $2.40–$4.10 on Friday, giving meal a $6 gain on the week. Soyoil climbed 116 points over five days. The domestic U.S. market continues to draw strength from September’s record NOPA crush of nearly 198 million bushels. However, global dynamics are weighing heavily: China imported no U.S. soybeans in September—the first time in seven years—shifting instead to Brazil, which accounted for 85.2% of China’s imports, and Argentina, which supplied 9%. Brazil’s planting pace surged to 23.27% of expected soybean area by mid-October, well ahead of last year’s 9.33%. The imbalance underscores the mounting challenge for U.S. farmers as trade frictions persist, though President Trump reiterated optimism over reaching a soybean deal with China in the coming weeks.

Global Market Drivers

The week begins with renewed focus on U.S.–China trade tensions and their direct impact on soybeans. China imported zero U.S. beans in September, favoring Brazilian and Argentine origins, and this is the first such absence since 2018. The U.S. Treasury confirmed that Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Malaysia next week to try to avert further tariff escalation ahead of the November 10 deadline for the current truce. President Trump also stated he would meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea, providing some optimism but little immediate relief for U.S. soybean exporters.

Brazil continues to dominate the supply side, with soybean planting already at 23.27% of expected area—more than double last year’s pace—and first-corn planting in the south-central region at 51%. These advances, coupled with favorable weather, reinforce Brazil’s position as the world’s key supplier of corn and soy into 2026. Argentina is also benefitting from recent rains, aiding wheat and corn progress, though cold snaps in the Pampas threaten some wheat yields.

Weather patterns across South America are increasingly important. Brazil faces a cooling trend with narrowing rainfall zones in late October, creating localized risks for soy and corn establishment. Argentina’s rains and moderate temperatures remain broadly supportive, while Paraguay’s wet conditions could slow planting. Looking further out, December–February forecasts point to warmer, drier risks in South Brazil, Paraguay, and northern Argentina, while increased storm activity could disrupt wheat harvest in the Pampas.

Australia’s harvest outlook has brightened, with estimates for wheat raised to 35.7 MMT, the third-largest on record, and barley output projected at 15 MMT, the largest ever. Good conditions in Western Australia are offsetting losses in southern regions where some farmers have cut crops for fodder. Large Australian production adds to global supply, contributing to downward pressure on Chicago futures.

In Europe, forecasts for the winter point to heightened cold risks driven by a weak polar vortex, especially in Russia, where low snow cover raises winterkill threats. Precipitation deficits in Russia also limit soil moisture improvement, increasing pressure on spring rains in 2026. Elsewhere in the EU, precipitation patterns are expected to improve soil reserves despite localized cold risks in Poland, the Baltics, and parts of Western Europe.

China’s domestic outlook also adds weight. The National Bureau of Statistics reported another bumper grain harvest despite weather disruptions, ensuring internal supply resilience. At the same time, Chinese pork production rose 7% year-on-year in Q3 as producers accelerated slaughter to reduce overcapacity, weighing on feed demand but keeping overall protein markets fluid.

Additional regional signals include Pakistan setting its wheat procurement price at 3,500 rupees/ton to build a 6.2 MMT strategic reserve, and Kazakhstan’s harvest exceeding 25.9 MMT, strengthening flows into Iran and Afghanistan as alternative supply routes. In corporate news, Louis Dreyfus and Molinos Agro made a joint $1.3 billion bid to take control of bankrupt Argentine soy exporter Vicentin, signaling ongoing consolidation in South America’s oilseed sector.

The combined picture is one of abundant supply capacity but fragile demand distribution. Brazil’s surge, China’s redirection of trade flows, Australia’s strong harvest, and policy moves from the Black Sea to South Asia highlight that global grain markets remain both well-supplied and highly sensitive to trade diplomacy and weather-driven risks.