Chicago grain futures finished Tuesday with a mixed tone, as wheat and soybeans found support from currency and demand signals, while corn edged lower amid biofuel uncertainty and improving South American supply. Markets continued to digest export data, weather developments, and global trade shifts, with macro and cross-commodity cues driving spreads across the complex.

Wheat futures stabilized after Monday’s sharp selloff, helped by a notable drop in the U.S. dollar index. The dollar fell $1.282 to 95.575, improving the relative competitiveness of U.S. wheat on the export market and encouraging light buying across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis contracts. Currency movement was a key offset to lingering global supply pressure.

Weather remained a secondary but relevant driver for wheat. After risk premium tied to last weekend’s snow and extreme cold was largely removed on Monday, forecasts now point to drier conditions across much of the U.S. Plains. Cooler temperatures are expected to persist into next week before warming later in February, leaving crop impact assessments mixed and limiting aggressive positioning.

Global wheat trade signals remained neutral to slightly negative. European Commission data showed EU wheat shipments of 12.38 MMT from July 1 to January 23, nearly unchanged from last year, indicating steady but unspectacular demand. At the same time, SovEcon raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports to 45.7 MMT for 2025/26, reinforcing ongoing competition from the Black Sea.

Corn futures drifted lower as the market weighed export positives against biofuel and supply headwinds. USDA confirmed a private export sale of 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations, which offered some demand reassurance but was not enough to reverse the broader tone. A separate sale of 306,000 MT of sorghum underscored feed grain demand but had limited direct price impact on corn.

Energy-linked demand remained a cautionary factor for corn. Traders looked ahead to upcoming EIA data, with expectations that ethanol output may pull back for the week ending last Friday. This prospect kept pressure on corn futures, particularly as cash prices also weakened modestly during the session.

South American supply developments added to the bearish tilt for corn. Brazil’s January corn exports are estimated at 3.39 MMT by ANEC, down slightly from last week’s estimate and below last year’s pace if realized. While the decline offers mild support, overall export flow remains sufficient to cap upside for U.S. corn in the near term.

Soybeans outperformed on Tuesday, buoyed by a combination of export adjustments and strength in the vegetable oil market. ANEC trimmed its estimate for Brazil’s January soybean exports to 3.23 MMT, down 0.56 MMT from last week, tightening near-term global availability despite still running above January 2025 levels. This revision helped underpin futures.

Product markets provided additional support for soybeans. Soy oil futures finished sharply higher, gaining 41 to 53 points, which offset mixed soymeal performance and lifted the crush complex. At the same time, European Commission data showed EU soybean imports at 7.06 MMT so far this marketing year, below last year’s pace, signaling softer demand but not enough to derail Tuesday’s rally.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.23 1/4/bu, up 3/4 cent. Gains were supported by a sharply weaker U.S. dollar and steadier weather outlooks after recent cold risks were priced out, even as higher Russian export estimates limited upside.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.26 1/2/bu, down 1 3/4 cents. Futures were pressured by expectations of softer ethanol output and continued South American competition, despite confirmation of new U.S. export sales.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans finished at $10.67 1/4/bu, up 5 1/2 cents. Strength was driven by higher soy oil futures and a downward revision to Brazil’s January export estimates, which helped counter slower EU import demand.