Chicago grain markets are firmly higher early Wednesday, with wheat posting outsized gains and corn and soybeans following, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, weather-driven supply concerns, and renewed focus on biofuels policy and export demand. Traders are positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report while monitoring South American weather stress and U.S. ethanol signals for intraday direction.
Wheat is the clear leader at the start of the session, extending a rebound as currency and weather factors align. A softer U.S. dollar index this week is improving export competitiveness, encouraging fund and commercial buying across SRW, HRW, and spring wheat markets. The move reflects renewed confidence after recent cold-weather risk was largely absorbed earlier in the week.
U.S. winter wheat weather remains a key background driver. Prolonged cold conditions following the historic winter storm continue to pose risks into February, particularly in areas with limited snow cover. While some regions benefit from insulation, the uneven protection keeps downside risk elevated and supports wheat risk premium.
South American weather developments are reinforcing bullish sentiment, particularly through spillover into wheat and corn. Argentina is experiencing an intense heat wave with temperatures near 40°C, stressing corn and soybean crops and raising expectations for downward revisions to production estimates. Early-planted corn is cited as the most vulnerable, adding support to global feed grain values.
Corn is drawing strength from both wheat spillover and biofuels policy signals. President Trump reiterated support for year-round E15 availability, reinforcing longer-term domestic demand expectations despite near-term volatility in ethanol output. This policy backdrop is supportive even as traders digest fresh energy data.
EIA figures released this morning showed ethanol production slipping to 1.114 million bpd for the week ending January 23, while stocks declined to 25.4 million barrels. The stock draw and higher refiner inputs partially offset the production dip, limiting bearish pressure on corn and keeping futures aligned with broader grain strength.
Soybeans are benefiting from a mix of weather risk and product market dynamics. Strong gains in soymeal are offsetting modest weakness in soy oil, while Argentine heat and dryness raise concerns for yield potential just as crops enter sensitive stages. This weather-driven risk premium is supporting prices despite ongoing expectations for large Brazilian production.
Export positioning remains central ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Traders are looking for solid corn sales and a wide range of soybean bookings, while wheat sales expectations remain moderate. The anticipation of confirmation or surprise in demand is keeping markets firm into midweek.
Outside oilseeds and vegetable oil markets remain mixed, but broader oilseed sentiment is supported by ongoing shifts in global trade flows. Developments in canola trade between China, Australia, and Canada underline heightened competition for oilseed demand, indirectly reinforcing the importance of South American weather outcomes for soy complex pricing.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.37 1/2/bu, up 14 1/4 cents early Wednesday. Gains are driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, renewed winter wheat weather risk, and spillover support from Argentine crop stress.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is at $4.30 3/4/bu, up 4 1/4 cents. Futures are supported by wheat-led strength, E15 policy support, and limited downside from ethanol data despite a small dip in production.
Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading at $10.75 1/2/bu, up 8 1/4 cents. Prices are underpinned by Argentine heat risks and strong soymeal gains, with traders positioning ahead of export sales data.